I just want to see if I'm thinking this through correctly... I didn't save the HH so I'll try to remember the details.

25NL 6 Max on Party (.10/.25 blinds)

UTG just bought in for another $25 after loosing two buy-ins in the past 20 minutes. Plays a little too over-aggressively, and has run into some big hands. He had a decent stack when I got to the table, so I figure he might have a little brains... I've pretty much been playing ABC poker, (but pulled a couple of big tricky moves) and built my $15 buyin up to $35.

UTG raises preflop to $2.5 (kinda big, but he seems to be betting hard). I call on the button with pocket fives, everyone else folds. Flop comes 467, rainbow, giving me an OESD. UTG bets $7, overbetting the pot. I immediately push all in for the rest of his stack (~$15).

Here is my reasoning...
I think there is probably a 10%-20% chance that he will fold right there and give me credit for a set, given the quickness of my raise. (Not TOO likely because he's probably tilting a little)

There is probably a 20% - 30% chance that he is just playing overs and completely missed the flop, meaning my fives are good.

Then there's the ~35% chance that I make my OESD by the river to beat whatever he could be holding anyway.

So do all these percentages make this a +EV decision in the long run, even though my hand isn't really that strong? I think I already know that this was a good play, I just want to make sure that my thought process was correct.

Results in white below:
He calls with KJs, hit a K on the turn, and I hit my 3 on the river to make the straight.