Another 'Deep with bottom set' thread 100nl.

[AnTman_69]

Have a bit of history with vill (SB). Our last big pot i triple barrel bluffed him after c/ring flop and doubling flush turn and blank riv. He called with a flush obv.

CO is Tag also with high steal percentage.
Vill(sb) is tag 20/16/3 5% 3bet. only 80 hands.

edit: vill insta c/bombed riv if that means nething.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($154.15)
UTG+1 ($101.50)
CO ($105.50)
Hero (BTN) ($224.35)
SB ($352.85)
BB ($112.85)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN
2 folds, CO raises to $3, Hero raises to $10, SB calls $9.50, 1 fold, CO calls $7

Flop: ($31, 3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($31, 3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $17, SB calls $17, CO folds

River: ($65, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $40, SB goes all-in $325.85

[WillburForce]

i really don't know what I'd do, but I've been trying to play more nitty so i'd prob fold...but then again we have a set.

do you think he'd be checking A-K, A-Q, A-J into 2 players on the flop?

Looks like he hit a set of j's to me or already had them on the flop.....but again we have set.....

[Luco]

you can't fear set over set. Pay him off if he does.

[WillburForce]

you can't fear set over set. Pay him off if he does.

if the other players hand looks like a higher set you can. I agree at micros you prob never should, but at £50nl+ you can.

[bode]

do you ever think he's cold calling a 3bet from the SB w/ KT or 52? no and no

do you think he's flatting QQ/AA OOP vs a 3bettor he has history with OOP in a multiway pot? almost never

do you think he's flatting AQ/JJ here? this makes the most sense of anything besides a bluff.

short story, i call

[Fnord]

Don't 3-bet this pre-flop.

As played I like the river bet/fold line. He has AA/QQ/JJ here soooo often.

[jimmy44]

As played I like the river bet/fold line. He has AA/QQ/JJ here soooo often.

I think we are behind here so often vs a standard villain 220BB deep!. Him insta c/bomb shows that he has a monster ... I put my money on JJ or slow played AA/QQ vs our aggro image.

[ATOTHEC101]

fooolding.

[bjsaust]

I'd fold. Tiny range but I expect to see QQ a lot here. Other things obviously possible, but thats what it seems like to me.

The fact villain caught us bluffing earlier makes it more likely he'd flat AA than less I'd think bode?

[Luke999]

Call pre.

As played fold.

[XTR1000]

I like what bode said, he´s repping really really thin. Even if he happened to take a weird preflop and flop line with AA/QQ, he rarely has those after he called turn. Discount 25/KT and add a bit of 33/QJ/AJ and I call it off.

[bode]

hi five XTR!

[Galapogos]

You only beat a bluff here and I don't see any 100NL regs making a bluff here for his whole deep stack. I fold and feel really good about it. I don't care if he's only repping JJ because I really don't think he's going to float the turn to make a 200bb bluff in a moderately small pot (small relative to the size of your stacks).

[IowaSkinsFan]

It's really close just dont worry about it. Remember we only have to be ahead 35% or so of the time to make it a +EV call.

[Jason]

Live I play $0.50/$1.00 and $1.00/$2.00, but online I only play small stakes, so take this with a grain of salt.

Moves like this always baffle me no matter what the stakes. Over betting the pot seems like such a donkey move, but the problem is the reaction to it may end up being more donkish. In theory, you lose so much value on your monsters to inferior hands and without the nuts, you only get called by hands that have you beat. It's like, if you want to be clever, why not just over bet the pot? Why massively over bet it? On the other hand, I've seen enough players do it and get paid and sometimes curiosity gets the better of us when WE have a good hand and we want to call to see which end of the stupid scale this player is on for next time.

Maybe it's a leak in my game or maybe it's good strategy, but I generally have a really tough time folding a set when an ace hits because most players like to play aces. I think AK, AQ, and AJ are all in his range and I think villain's post flop check is reasonable since he's OOP to players he expects bets from. Another consideration to make: is 220 big blinds really deep enough to fold a set without a really good read? Obviously, you wouldn't just always blindly commit, but with no flushes, no paired board, and two unlikely two card combinations to make a straight, and not a good read to the contrary, I probably call against most average or loose players, although, if huge over pot all-in check/raises are usually indicative of a monster that has you beat at these stakes, I don't think a fold is unreasonable.

The real problem for me here is that this player is tight and his range for making a play like this seems very narrow UNLESS you have a good read to the contrary or have a good handle on where you stand with his perception of your table image.

Really, with a play like this, I think it all boils down to table image and psychology. He has probably made this huge all-in over bet for one of three reasons:

1) He has a good hand like two pair that he thinks you will pay him off with an inferior hand like TPTK
2) He has a monster like AA and thinks you'll pay him off with a great hand like 44 or even two pair
3) He has an average to mediocre to air hand and he thinks you'll fold

If you think it's 1 or 3, call and fold if 2.

Personally, although I would want to call, my instinct would be to fold. Most of the time when players go all-in like that, they have a monster - even @ $2NL.

[dsaxton]

Seems like a fold. Your hand looks like a set, so this play probably seems too risky from his perspective without a big set. I can't imagine any other hand that fits the action. Maybe a really poorly played A-Q, but I highly doubt it. The previous hand you mentioned suggests he plays cautiously in these kinds of spots.

[AnTman_69]

So theres a few mixed responses here, with the majority saying Fold. Given my aggro image and deepness, does this mean his cold-calling range pre is wider, or the opposite.? Is he more likely to spazz out with AJ/Q cause I've shown down a big bluff recently.? So it pretty much comes down to this: Call... if i think hes spazzo enough to do this with AQ/J and Fold if i think his range contains only PP's.



edit: jst realised i don't actually have bottom set lolz.

[nutsinho]

i definitely think fold

[Galapogos]

It's really close just dont worry about it. Remember we only have to be ahead 35% or so of the time to make it a +EV call.

Might be my deep pot nittyness, but I really don't see how we're ahead 1/3 of the time here.

[BigPapi]

So theres a few mixed responses here, with the majority saying Fold. Given my aggro image and deepness, does this mean his cold-calling range pre is wider, or the opposite.? Is he more likely to spazz out with AJ/Q cause I've shown down a big bluff recently.? So it pretty much comes down to this: Call... if i think hes spazzo enough to do this with AQ/J and Fold if i think his range contains only PP's.



edit: jst realised i don't actually have bottom set lolz.

his cold calling range preflop should be wider yes, but that doesnt mean it is.

an allin from him will fold all of your bluffs, so why would he be spazzing out? if he bluffs he could do it cheaper.

I dont think we're good here 35% this deep.

[bode]

I saw a really good and really simple piece of advice today. "Don't assume villains will play like you think they should", or something close to that. after looking at this hand again i'm leaning more towards a fold now, although i think its closer than what most people seem to think ITT.

i also played a very similar hand last night where a villain flatted QQ in the BB vs my MP raise as i was running like 25/20 and i stacked off w/ bottom set on QT47 or something 200bbs deep.

[BigPapi]

yeah definitely, never assume how they should play, base reads on how they really play. you can always give villain a range based on previous actions/reads etc and that doesnt even mean that is actually villains range. we can only try and get the range as good as we can and partly base our decision on that. But we shouldnt think we gave a perfect range for villain or we shouldnt assume villain plays exactely like we think. And definitely shouldnt assume he plays like we think he should