AQ oop in Tree Bet Pot vs Tard Mass Grinder.

Villain is rivichico a losing rakeback guy whos runs 17/15. He's not a nit through and through as he enjoy 3 betting light in position, cold 4 bet bluffing, and more importantly here, flatting 3 bets IP with a pretty wide range. His fold to 3 bet is 59%, he 4 bets like 14% of the time.

So pre is ldo standard, I'll likely just 3 bet jam this vs him 100 deep and be fairly okay with it. Trying to get a bunch of calls from the dominmated boradways he'll continue with mainly though.

Flop meh not much to say.

Okay so the J is a shitty card. Makes a load of his 2nd best hands into trips and given his tendency to flat 3 bets fairly wide he has a good amount of Jx here. He also likes to 4 bet stuff like QQ-AA in these spots and prolly JJ TT most of the time too. He likely has some worse aces aswell but don't see how I can possibly go for 3 strets here. He folds to 38% of c bet in 3-bet post over 2.3k hands, so I think it's unlilely he floats with total air here. His range on the turn is likely this sort of thing:

[AQs-A9s,KTs+,QJs,JTs,AQo-ATo,KJo+]

Now, out of this kind of range the floats are bluffing, the aces are checking (mostly) and the jacks are betting. So If I c/c.....



Board: Ac Jd 2d Jh

Hand 0: 52.871%
{ AQs-AJs, KTs+, QJs, JTs, AQo-AJo, KJo+ }
Hand 1: 47.129%
{ AdQh }

This will be + EV obv but betting could be more so and I'm not sure how much he'll fire the river with his air if I c/c probably not nearly as often since I have Ax all the time after I call turn, but he is a tard so idk.

If I bet the turn like half pot...

Board: Ac Jd 2d Jh

Hand 0: 60.014%
{ AQs-A9s, KJs, QJs, JTs, AQo-ATo, KJo }
Hand 1: 39.986%
{ AdQh }

Kinda worse, but in this case the river is an easy easy c/f and I don't risk making big mistakes. I get all the dead money from his floats here aswell while still not doing too horribly vs his likely continuing range.

B/F turn and C/F river sound best?

Thoughts on these ranges/my analysis so far?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG schukijanin ($41)
UTG+1 Tilo0 ($156.60)
CO rivichico ($101.80)
BTN bleurain ($108.50)
SB Hero ($159.95)
BB vadima ($103)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, rivichico raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10.50, 1 fold, rivichico calls $7.50

Flop: ($22, 2 players)
Hero bets $11, rivichico calls $11

Turn: ($44, 2 players)
Hero ($138.45)?

If you're scared of getting owned on the turn, just bet a bit bigger, like 29-34ish. But since this guy doesn't seem to be uber creative, c/calling turn isn't too bad to let him put more money in with his Q10-K10 type stuff but then you have to soulread river.

my first thought is that you should b/f the turn $26. like you say c/c turn c/? river is faceup as Ax and without some dynamic/history that merits inducing a bluff or knowledge of his bluff freq% on turn/riv there is potential for a significant mistake.

plus he almost always calls that turn barrel with worse Ax and always checks it behind on the river.

c/c turn, soul read river (I think there's too many fds and gutters in his range for you to not c/c this perfect bluff card for him). If he checks back you have a nice easy river bet.

I like c/c turn as well and I'd very likely c/f river.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG schukijanin ($41)
UTG+1 Tilo0 ($156.60)
CO rivichico ($101.80)
BTN bleurain ($108.50)
SB Hero ($159.95)
BB vadima ($103)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, rivichico raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10.50, 1 fold, rivichico calls $7.50

Flop: ($22, 2 players)
Hero bets $11, rivichico calls $11

Turn: ($44, 2 players)
Hero checks, rivichico bets $23, Hero calls $23

River: ($90, 2 players)
Hero checks, rivichico bets $57.30, Hero folds

Final Pot: $147.30

rivichico wins $144.30 (net +$42.50)

Hero lost $44.50


Thanks guys, I guess c/f has to be our default river plan given that 100NL villains are niether used to people folding Ax to them here or expect many people to?

Originally Posted by Carroters

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG schukijanin ($41)
UTG+1 Tilo0 ($156.60)
CO rivichico ($101.80)
BTN bleurain ($108.50)
SB Hero ($159.95)
BB vadima ($103)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, rivichico raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10.50, 1 fold, rivichico calls $7.50

Flop: ($22, 2 players)
Hero bets $11, rivichico calls $11

Turn: ($44, 2 players)
Hero checks, rivichico bets $23, Hero calls $23

River: ($90, 2 players)
Hero checks, rivichico bets $57.30, Hero folds

Final Pot: $147.30

rivichico wins $144.30 (net +$42.50)

Hero lost $44.50


Thanks guys, I guess c/f has to be our default river plan given that 100NL villains are niether used to people folding Ax to them here or expect many people to?

Exactly. Check-fold would then be your default river plan. But it should change depending on your read by then.