|
b v b dry flop range discussion
whats our hand look like and what does his line tell us?
i believe the problem is the way we played our hand looks very weak and this line is very exploitable by a tough reg (19/15/3.7)
he had fold to cbet 37%, raise cbet 30%
I suppose it was this reason why I checked, I didn't want to be in a raised pot oop.
on flop our hand looks (weak) like T8/9T/9J/Q9/K9/A9/88/77/66
his range is only really defined by him calling 15% BB vs SB, he only has 4% 3bet here so there's some decent hands he's flatting for deception
On turn his value range I think is 33/55/99/Q9/KQ/QJ/QT
he can have a lot of draws though including 46hh/67hh/78hh/68hh/Axhh/TJhh/KThh/KJhh - if he barrels these we have to assume he'll also triple barrel them ? he has 24% river bet freq
when I stove this:
Board: 3c 9d 5h Qh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.102% 44.10% 00.00% 1630 0.00 { Ts9h }
Hand 1: 55.898% 55.90% 00.00% 2066 0.00 { 99, 55, 33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, KhJh, QJs, Q9s, JhTh, 64s, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
--> seems we are behind his range and should fold turn. if we decide to call turn then i believe it would be correct to call river blank? because his range includes so many draws
whats his value range on this river?
most Qx hands check back here, so I'm giving him a range of:
55/33/99/Q9 - in which case isn't this river bet heavily weighted towards air?
-> the biggest problem is we didn't bet the flop. we can call a raise an re-eval turn, and if he calls flop we can c/c a lot of flops and re-eval rivers
$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
CO ZZZ888ZZZ ($206.65)
BTN blurrrr ($420.74)
SB Hero ($240.35)
BB peeeedor ($258.55)
Pre-flop: ($3, 4 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, peeeedor calls $5
Flop: ($14, 2 players)
Hero checks, peeeedor bets $12, Hero calls $12
Turn: ($38, 2 players)
Hero checks, peeeedor bets $32, Hero calls $32
River: ($102, 2 players)
Hero checks, peeeedor bets $75
Final Pot: $177
|