b v b dry flop range discussion

whats our hand look like and what does his line tell us?

i believe the problem is the way we played our hand looks very weak and this line is very exploitable by a tough reg (19/15/3.7)
he had fold to cbet 37%, raise cbet 30%
I suppose it was this reason why I checked, I didn't want to be in a raised pot oop.

on flop our hand looks (weak) like T8/9T/9J/Q9/K9/A9/88/77/66
his range is only really defined by him calling 15% BB vs SB, he only has 4% 3bet here so there's some decent hands he's flatting for deception

On turn his value range I think is 33/55/99/Q9/KQ/QJ/QT
he can have a lot of draws though including 46hh/67hh/78hh/68hh/Axhh/TJhh/KThh/KJhh - if he barrels these we have to assume he'll also triple barrel them ? he has 24% river bet freq

when I stove this:

Board: 3c 9d 5h Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.102% 44.10% 00.00% 1630 0.00 { Ts9h }
Hand 1: 55.898% 55.90% 00.00% 2066 0.00 { 99, 55, 33, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, KQs, KhJh, QJs, Q9s, JhTh, 64s, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

--> seems we are behind his range and should fold turn. if we decide to call turn then i believe it would be correct to call river blank? because his range includes so many draws

whats his value range on this river?
most Qx hands check back here, so I'm giving him a range of:
55/33/99/Q9 - in which case isn't this river bet heavily weighted towards air?

-> the biggest problem is we didn't bet the flop. we can call a raise an re-eval turn, and if he calls flop we can c/c a lot of flops and re-eval rivers

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ZZZ888ZZZ ($206.65)
BTN blurrrr ($420.74)
SB Hero ($240.35)
BB peeeedor ($258.55)

Pre-flop: ($3, 4 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, peeeedor calls $5

Flop: ($14, 2 players)
Hero checks, peeeedor bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($38, 2 players)
Hero checks, peeeedor bets $32, Hero calls $32

River: ($102, 2 players)
Hero checks, peeeedor bets $75

Final Pot: $177

Yeah you need to just bet flop. As played you should fold turn and definitely river.

The problem with playing the c/c game is that you avail your opponent to three barrel for value with a ton of hands that he'd normally only get a street or two from.

In this hand he can pretty much auto barrel you three streets with K9 and better, which is a huge shitload of hands.

I would advise playing the c/c game with two kinds of hands:

1) very mediocre hands that you plan on only calling one bet with (like second pair). I would even limit this.

2) hands that you can no problem call three streets, like mixing it up with TPTK+ and slowplaying all the way.

well clearly we should have a call-call-fold range. i think T9 is fine for this once we checked the flop but id prefer a bet.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

well clearly we should have a call-call-fold range. i think T9 is fine for this once we checked the flop but id prefer a bet.

THE RETURN!

so in this instance we could have a call/call/call range with hands like A9/TT/JJ? I take it we want to cbet all of these as well.

on this board i think bet flop, c/c turn is good and re-eval river, this river we call with any 9 or better

when we cbet and get raised, we call and re-eval turn. i'm not sure which turns i would continue on to c/c if flop is raised.

I have a lot to say about c/cing good hands ever...

I don't like doing it

Originally Posted by nutsinho

well clearly we should have a call-call-fold range.

In theory, sure, in practice, I dunno. Either way, wouldn't be alright if we only c/c/f'd with hands like 9x of hearts that pick up turn possibilities and brick the river?

i dont know what you have against c/c c/c c/f. you have said that you don't like taking this line in the past also. when i check the flop as the preflop raiser and i had to guess the number of streets i called on average after doing so when being bet into on every street, it would be 0>>2>>>>>1>>3. Most players in msnl and even hsnl know how to barrel but arent very good at making thin bluffs in the big pots.

could we make a scenario. same hand, flop but i cbet and c/c turn

we assume he floats with a lot, board is still dry enough he likely wouldn't raise set, so his turn range on bet is sets/Q9/draws

if hand played like this we are calling this river most times?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ZZZ888ZZZ ($206.65)
BTN blurrrr ($420.74)
SB Hero ($240.35)
BB peeeedor ($258.55)

Pre-flop: ($3, 4 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, Hero raises to $7, peeeedor calls $5

Flop: ($14, 2 players)
Hero bets $12, peeeedor calls $12

Turn: ($38, 2 players)
Hero checks, peeeedor bets $32, Hero calls $32

River: ($102, 2 players)
Hero checks, peeeedor bets $75

Final Pot: $177

I'm not going to pretend I'm qualified to add, so I'll instead ask a couple of questions.

When we know the opponent raises cbets 30% does that qualify as an exploitable tendency? Or are people generally that aggressive at this limit with a balanced range? My immediate thought here is that his cbet-raising range has quite a lot of air in it, so it may be profitable for us to adjust by continuing with a decent amount of bluff catchers in our flop bet/call range.

Is this the correct type of adjustment to consider, and if it is, is T9o the kind of hand we want to put into our flop bet/call range? With his 24% bet river frequency it seems to me that he's more likely to bluff for small amounts on earlier streets and less likely to bluff for bigger amounts on later streets. This could give us a cheap/free showdown when we're best. However, if he does a lot of bluffing on earlier streets he'll end up on rivers often with weaker ranges and the 24% from this player might be less indicative of honesty than a similar stat would be from someone who tends to continue with stronger ranges.

Since we expect the opponents range to contain many weak hands (?), is it profitable to plan to bluff on a later street - or will T9s still be strong enough that it will not usually fall into a bluff range?

Given his propensity for raising the cbet, the flop being dry, potentially looking to pursue a bet/call line with some maneuvering later in the hand would there be an argument for cbetting smaller than normal? Or do we rather want to just term the raise from the opponent a mistake and cbet flop bigger to increase the size of his mistake?

bspahn: I think I just bet the turn because it keep my range wide since a lot of my air type hands will bet the turn as a bluff
then if I check the river he has to be afraid of me having a queen because I might c/c a queen for value and obviously I'm giving up on my bluffs so it would seem like the bet-bet-check line is stronger than bet-check/call-check line
I'd fold the river, I don't think his range is sets/q9/draws I think any queen can play this way


Erpel: I don't think raising cbets 30% is exploitable because when you try to play back you'll find that a smart opponent will start raising cbets for thin value
that said, on boards that are good to c/r like K93r you should probably check back hands like ace high and 9x/pps and bet air only half pot

the reason why i was thinking bet/check line here is because it widens HIS range, when we barrel here we're keeping in way less hands of him than if we check and allow him to bet. when we bet we're keeping in hands that beat us and good draws. what if we bet turn and he raises?

Originally Posted by nutsinho

i dont know what you have against c/c c/c c/f. you have said that you don't like taking this line in the past also. when i check the flop as the preflop raiser and i had to guess the number of streets i called on average after doing so when being bet into on every street, it would be 0>>2>>>>>1>>3. Most players in msnl and even hsnl know how to barrel but arent very good at making thin bluffs in the big pots.

QFT

I don't think people quite understand how often you can c/f not only hands with 0 equity, but also hands like bottom and middle pair. I haven't run into many people who bluff versus flop checks because they know you aren't going to fold to one bet.

i.e. I raise oop get called from bu flop comes K72. I have A2. If i decide to check there its a c/f versus almost everyone.

Well, usually if the flop it JTxdd or something a flop check is a lot weaker than K72