Beating 200nl (other stakes too): 2nd leveling 1st levelers

So I've been at 200nl for probably 25k hands (20k were HU so im not reallu counting that). Here's my obvservations:
I struggled a lot at 100NL, mostly because i was trying to hard to out think players who weren't thinking. I experimented heavily with my game there to the point that through my last few hands there I was pwning everyone (I wouldn't be surprised if over 20k hands i could run 10ptBB/100 there)

I moved up to 200nl and these were the differences I saw:
1. Regs are actually thinking, and calling down first level bluffs, folding in spots with good hands where they are clearly beat with great hands. BUT they no reg is adjusting because of 4.
2. Player are incorporating moves into their game they do not understand
3. Players Squeezing
4. Players on so many tables they are relying heavily on stats.


1 is by far the most significant as it can use the most adjusting. First off, we know the typical bluff lines that seemed to get called down a lot. Passive flop, aggro turn or aggro river (or both). Pretty much first level stuff "why is he being passive and now aggressive." NOW that we know that we see people calling down a lot, we can exploit it. But I don't think the answer is calling a lot on the flop.
How we can exploit:
a. playing Kxs, Qxs, Axs, and two cards over T to raises in pos. Why" Thin value is hella easy. We take a typical float line with tpwk and get called way too often. We shouldn't expect players to figure out how to adjust at this level (although if they do you can catch it). You can even make value bets on riv with midpair gk sometimes because of some of the retarded hero calls opp will be making. opps are playing so many tables they wont have the brain power to adjust anyway.
b. BALANCING OUR HAND RANGE!!! Yes!! my favorite thing to do. I actually unbalanced my range at 100nl because it was unprofitable. But with regs thinking on first levels you can pwn them with a balanced range. I can't even imagine how much regs will be pwned when "oh no!! you're doing the same thing with different hands!!!"
c. Combining the two: theory about owning regs at 200nl: Overbets. I'm experimenting with this right now in spots where opps do a line where they have no better than tpgk. A lot of times ill fire out double the pot, sometimes with bluffs depending on what i think of them and sometimes with thin value. Because it makes absolutely no sense to these guys. And I'm not sure with so many regs any reg can spend enough time to figure out how to adjust to this.
Imagine: thread on 2p2 where a guy shows a hand where he was playing a reg opp who took a float line and on the river he fired twice the pot. WTF kind of advice can anyone give him? He pretty much has to pay attention to figure it out and at these levels they're not paying close enough.

The last thing is something im experimenting with.

two is something i have to think about. I'm not sure how we can exactly exploit this, I'm not sure it's something we can exploit but it's definetely something detremental to our opponents. Something i like to do is raise two barrels sometimes when an overcard comes (because this is the exact spot these regs have learned to two barrel in).

3 we see a lot of players now squeezing at this level, and really the only defense to a squeeze is cold calling big hands in pos. It's definetely something needed in your game on occasion. ie, someone raises UTG and there are 2 callers in MP and CO,, you have AA and decide to overcall because of the decent likely hood of blinds squeezing. You push to his squeeze and he wont fold ever (because he has to put you on a low pair).

Sorry for this long post im just bored and thought i'd put some thoughts down.

I feel that most of the regulars aren't very thinking players and are more just aggro donks/calling stations.

Yeah idk im not saying everything i said was right i just put it down because it's a useful discussion.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

How we can exploit:
a. playing Kxs, Qxs, Axs, and two cards over T to raises in pos. Why" Thin value is hella easy. We take a typical float line with tpwk and get called way too often. We shouldn't expect players to figure out how to adjust at this level (although if they do you can catch it). You can even make value bets on riv with midpair gk sometimes because of some of the retarded hero calls opp will be making. opps are playing so many tables they wont have the brain power to adjust anyway.

What a great post. The part that I quoted is my favorite part because I think it's the easiest aspect of your post that you can immediately apply to your game and start owning people.

You call a raise in position with something like K9s and the flop comes Kxx, and the raiser checks to you. He has second pair 100% of the time and if the turn and river are bricks, value bet him to death because he IS. NOT. FOLDING. EVAR. (I'm assuming that he's the type of mediocre player that you described in your post).

Example (sorry I don't have PT on this computer so I'm going from memory as this was a long time ago): 1-2 NL, maybe $250 effective stacks. I raised on the button with AQs and got re-raised by the SB, I called. Flop was AQx, he checked and I immediately knew that he had KK or maybe KQ, so I potted and he called. Turn was a blank, he checked and I checked behind. River was another blank, he checked, I shoved for a little more than the pot and he absolutely insta-called with KK. IMO the way that I played that hand is the only way he stacks off there, and I knew exactly how to play it because he told me what his cards were with his flop check.

Anyway your post made me remember that hand but I agree with you that it's easy to call these guys in position with big cards and own them with thin value bets because a lot of the time their cards are face up.

I came up with the idea when i was experimenting with how to pwn regs. I decided i'd float line every time i decided to play after the flop with a specific reg. What I found is he had no idea what to do. He kept calling me with midpair, then he'd go on streaks not calling at all, and then he'd start calling again. He never did the obvious thing which is two barrelling a lot more. I confused him with bet sizing and he just seemed completely out of sorts. In no way would i advocate changing all your lines to float but i think the value of tpwk is so much higher at 200nl u have to open up your preflop range.

Wow i'm glad i had at least one coherent thought in there, when i wrote it down i was like "wtf this seems to make no sense." But i pushed enter anyways.

I think this post is one of the reasons I will never be successful at any limits > 100nl (with even struggles there). I'm so first leveled it's stupid.

Nice post though.

The 100nl regs at stars all play the the same based on their stats with very few exceptions.

What makes 200nl much more difficult from a regs point of view is that there are several players with very similar stats who play completely different. Also there are a lot of regs I don't know yet that have tried to move up and are now moving back down. Some of these players can be trouble.

As far as your points go, the biggest mistake the regs make is on the turn, most just don't know what to do. We all get a lot of practice preflop, on the flop, and usually the river is a check or value bet, but the turn is where you can pick off a lot of pots. So by floating more in position you will get more shots to see who plays the turn well and who doesn't.

The squeezing is something that irritates me as is all the 3betting that goes on amongst the regs especially in LP and the blinds. I get irritated because it seems that most of these 'moves' are designed to 'outplay' their reg counterpart, but the result is that they blow the fish out of a ton of pots. If they would tone it down a bit we all would get more shots at the fish. Also I think that there are a lot of regs that hide their postflop weaknesses by 3betting light anyone they think they can push around.

As far as your overbet theory, it may help you determine who can/will adjust. But the good regs will adjust to what your doing. For the most part you still need to play standard, until it is time to not play standard.

sauce123's 200nl strat- run 30/24 and run over everyone at all times.

haha but really good post, however with regards to the AA post thing- that situation would be a pretty significant mistake against all 200nl opponents because:

a) if you cold call multiple raises with AA on the button you lose a TON of PF and postflop equity and allow yourself to get stacked a lot.
b) Almost no one at 200nl is aggro enough to squeeze often enough to make this more profitable than raising with your AA. I can think of maybe two or three 600nl regs where I would consider calling in this spot (basically ppl who squeeze everytime in this spot if they r in the mood).
c) The ideal time to do this is against an aggressive MP or LP raiser btw.

anyway I would say making these kind of plays ever at 200nl is a mistake because people aren't squeezing enough to offset your preflop loss.

ya great post. i honestly haven't experimented enough with pwning regs on the turn and river, just starting to.
for so long my "exploit the reg" lines have been to just raise their cbet, or reraise pre flop.
that does work, but gets old and sooo many do it now that ppl adjust a lot faster.
floating a noticable amount along with taking the same line but replacing with thin value bets makes an opp a ton harder to play against. and like u said, ppl are not so used to adjusting to it.

when I made transition the main thing is get use to 3betting.
Learn who regulars are...
Learn thier leeks...and how to exploit them.
??????????
profit

Btw some people at 200nl can actually somewhat handread so if your bluffing make sure your line is credible. As for the stuff you wrote on its pretty good but you honestly are kind of over thinking a little bit. You seem like you will enjoy and do very well at msnl and hsnl but for now 200nl doesnt really need this. good post though.

I just like trying to pwn my opponents
I agree that most of them know hand reading, but most of them are "general hand reading" like "I have no reads but this line looks bluffy so i call." When I know this, out thinking them can be a huge profit.
But yeah there are some regs who are really thinking who have sick hand reading abilities who are hard to pwn.