The 100nl regs at stars all play the the same based on their stats with very few exceptions.

What makes 200nl much more difficult from a regs point of view is that there are several players with very similar stats who play completely different. Also there are a lot of regs I don't know yet that have tried to move up and are now moving back down. Some of these players can be trouble.

As far as your points go, the biggest mistake the regs make is on the turn, most just don't know what to do. We all get a lot of practice preflop, on the flop, and usually the river is a check or value bet, but the turn is where you can pick off a lot of pots. So by floating more in position you will get more shots to see who plays the turn well and who doesn't.

The squeezing is something that irritates me as is all the 3betting that goes on amongst the regs especially in LP and the blinds. I get irritated because it seems that most of these 'moves' are designed to 'outplay' their reg counterpart, but the result is that they blow the fish out of a ton of pots. If they would tone it down a bit we all would get more shots at the fish. Also I think that there are a lot of regs that hide their postflop weaknesses by 3betting light anyone they think they can push around.

As far as your overbet theory, it may help you determine who can/will adjust. But the good regs will adjust to what your doing. For the most part you still need to play standard, until it is time to not play standard.