Big call vs reg 10/20

Opp is a pretty in control regular. He has been close to making a big bluffs, but has never yet put his stack in as a bluff besides 5bet bluffing vs a 4bet. He min opens every button, and only folds to 3bet 58%. I have actually caught him a few times raising the flop in a 3bet pot with air or a fd. I also suspect, though haven't actually seen him show it down, that he is flatting the flop with nut hands. Now given what I've said, do you call here? I don't think any street is debatable but who knows.

Full Tilt Poker Game #19996463736: Table Hound (heads up) - $10/$20 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:56:58 ET - 2010/04/11
Seat 1: Mirttinur ($4,728)
Seat 2: chemztry ($2,477.50)
chemztry posts the small blind of $10
Mirttinur posts the big blind of $20
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mirttinur [Ad Ts]
chemztry raises to $40
Mirttinur raises to $160
chemztry calls $120
*** FLOP *** [4d Kc Qd]
Mirttinur bets $160
chemztry has 15 seconds left to act
chemztry raises to $445
Mirttinur calls $285
*** TURN *** [4d Kc Qd] [6s]
Mirttinur has 15 seconds left to act
Mirttinur checks
chemztry has 15 seconds left to act
chemztry checks
*** RIVER *** [4d Kc Qd 6s] [7c]
Mirttinur checks
chemztry has 15 seconds left to act
chemztry bets $1,872.50, and is all in
Mirttinur has 15 seconds left to act
Mirttinur has requested TIME
Mirttinur

if you catch him raising a few times im guessing he's going to start raising for value. also shouldnt you be putting in another raise if you think he's bluffing enough?

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

if you catch him raising a few times im guessing he's going to start raising for value. also shouldnt you be putting in another raise if you think he's bluffing enough?

Well, given the stacks that doesn't seem like a fantastic bluffing opportunity? Also, I am beating bluffs besides AJ.

One funny thing about this hand is that in my opinion almost nobody would take this line with a balanced range. I mean pretty much regardless of who you are playing against, this is always going to be a bluff or never a bluff.

For instance I would never take this line on this board as a bluff. Don't you think your opponent knows how little credit this line is going to receive?

Originally Posted by pocketfours

One funny thing about this hand is that in my opinion almost nobody would take this line with a balanced range. I mean pretty much regardless of who you are playing against, this is always going to be a bluff or never a bluff.

For instance I would never take this line on this board as a bluff. Don't you think your opponent knows how little credit this line is going to receive?

(About opps perspective and taking this line as a bluff) Maybe people only do one or the other but I have to say I definitely will have a balanced range here, because I will both raise the flop and check the turn with a hand im catching river bluffs with, like the nuts, or when I just decide to give up. Ideally, you could bluff with some of your range here, but if you really feel like we should assume that opps going to call, then it seems like we should not ever bluff here.

I would guess that opp would have a murky enough analysis of the situation that he would look at nothing and shove it in. But its a bold guess. I've certainly done that before.

It may be somewhat important to note that his timing on the river was relatively quick comparitively to his normal timing. I say this because I really don't see what is in his value range here. I don't expect him to raise the flop with KK, QQ, 44, AA, AK, or KQ. What the hell else is he raising here? Mid pair? Honestly, I put a small weight on KJ/KT/Kxs.

I'm just as bewildered by this as you are. Could be some random flushdraw that hit the river 58dd, 53dd, 67dd or perhaps K7dd?

Maybe he decided to mix it up and took a line you wouldn't expect with a strong flopped hand. Can't discount that possibility 100% right?

Or then it is just what it looks like, a bluff that doesn't really represent anything but what it is.

Especially after his turn check back, this seems like a spot where he probably thinks that you put him on a draw, and now he's jamming when all the draws brick out. Given he calls so many 3bets, I'd imagine he could see the flop with more Kx hands than most people, and might play it weirdly like this (ie: raising flop instead of calling).

doesn't he shove a lot of bad Ks here when your hand looks like AQ/QJ? That being said i'm not sure he'd raise random Ks on the flop so i don't think i mind calling here.

Any reason why he isn't betting K9-KJ on turn if he's raising flop with those? Small flop raise to price showdown with K5? I do feel like calling.

Originally Posted by Alexos

Any reason why he isn't betting K9-KJ on turn if he's raising flop with those?

I suppose its much more likely than the chance he shoves the turn as a bluff without a fd or straight draw.

just call, if you lose, so it goes ...

i mean given your flop read aren't you sort of fist-pumping on the river ? I'd always time down here so as not to give away the fact that I'm never folding anything ever but how can this even be a question given assumptions....

was your flop plan: hm ok, I'm going to flat the flop raise with AT high and then call down vs all lines besides turn chk chk, river chk/overbet on blanks. I mean yea, if you call and lose you look like a piece of sh1t, but you dug your grave, now lie down in it.

So results were I called and he showed 76o.

nh

i mean 25% of the time you are going to get drawn out on. 1% of the time he is going to take this line and you are going to pay off. if you werent DS ing you wouldn't be stressing about this. I think folding anywhere in this hand given assumptions is terrible- sack up and call.

He didn't fool P4's though. I'll quote myself:

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Don't you think your opponent knows how little credit this line is going to receive?

"Don't you think your opponent knows how little credit this line is going to receive?"

I think this is making an assumption that when someone decides to bluff that they are very aware of how much or little credit they are going to get. Its a fine assumption, but nonetheless I also think people make bluffs without this thought process, i.e. I have nothing, i dont look that strong, lets put the money in. Since we can't totally get into their head without more history, I normally find it more important what kind of range they'd actually get to this point with.

I know that's how you think Danny, but that's why you lost this (particular) hand.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I know that's how you think Danny, but that's why you lost this (particular) hand.

really ? really ?? u gotta stop this type of sht its driving me crazy