big draw blanks on turn

My image is ultra laggy and opponent's weird bet didn't seem like he was trying to milk me with a big hand. Not much of a read beyond that - I was somewhat new to the table. What do you do here?

Hand History:
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Texas Hold'em $1-$1 NL (real money), #1,510,483,748
Table Vejle, 24 Nov 2005 4:59 PM ET



Seat 2: TVerscetti ($96.30 in chips)
Seat 3: tinkeri ($108 in chips)
Seat 5: SlappinYaUp ($147.45 in chips)
Seat 6: Reckless87 ($117.20 in chips)
Seat 8: raggmunk ($61.55 in chips)



ANTES/BLINDS
TVerscetti posts blind ($0.50), tinkeri posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP

SlappinYaUp gets [JsQs]

SlappinYaUp bets $4, Reckless87 folds, raggmunk folds, TVerscetti calls $3.50, tinkeri folds.

FLOP [board cards 9S,5S,10H ]
TVerscetti checks, SlappinYaUp bets $6, TVerscetti calls $6.

TURN [board cards 9S,5S,10H,7H ]
TVerscetti bets $20, SlappinYaUp bets $137.45 and is all-in

Raise flop to 15 and check/call reasonable bet on turn. You really want to avoid getting all your money in on the turn no matter how strong your draw is.

i couldnt have raised it on the flop, i was the bettor, he just called me. so just call the 20 on the turn?

You would have to be pretty sure this guy is going to fold for the all-in raise to be a good play here. Your draw has lost a lot of it's value now with only one card to come.

What types of hands would you expect your opponent to play like this? His line is very bizarre, but it doesn't appear weak or lacking in confidence, so I would probably just make a somewhat confused call and try to hit my hand. If he was slow-playing on the flop, which is a possibility, then I'm either folding on the river or stacking him.

agreed. if he is checking the flop, calling your bet, and then firing out like that you had better have something more than a huge draw to back it up with. If it was the flop and you have 2 cards to keep it would be slightly more justified. I like a call here or at the most a suspicious looking min raise on your part to keep him in line and find out where you are.

Idk how solid a player his guy is. His betting line means a few things to me. one is that he just hit a draw with possible J8 or 87, which in this case he's being really obvious. He could have slowplayed the flop and when the obvious draw card comes on the turn, he really has to protect his hand. Or 3 the one your beating he bet the turn to make it look like he has a draw but really doesn't have much at all. the second and third one you get a fold, the first your probably called with like a 30% chance to hit on the river. So this move I think is +EV but I'm not sure your getting the maximum out of it. I'd just call the turn because of the strength he's repping.

But im a low stakes player so i may be wrong.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

You would have to be pretty sure this guy is going to fold for the all-in raise to be a good play here.

Depends a little by what you mean by "good play". Op only has $65 left. If hero has a 35% chance of winning if called then that means he expects to get back about $65 of the $85 he put in on the turn, i.e. a loss of $20. If op folds hero wins $40. So a 33% chance of a fold is enough to make the push +EV compared to folding. A 50% chance of a fold gives EV = +$10. In comparison the EV from calling is about +$20 * probability that hero gets paid off given that he hits his draw.

I think that the two options run very closely together in value. Personally I think I like pushing: it leaves op with the difficult choices, and the implied odds may be diminished by the fact that only two of your outs do not put either a four-straight or three-flush on the board.

Of course it also depends a little on how you like your variance served: small probaility of big win + large probability of small loss, or vice versa.

Interesting ideas guys. I'm still not sure what in the hell he had, but the guy thought for a long time and ended up folding. I don't know why but I felt that he was weak and decided that if I did get a call I could hopefully suck out. Maybe its because I don't see many people at 100nl there play big hands fast until the river. Honestly though, I can't guess what his folding frequency is there - my image at the table sure doesn't help it any.