big draw and lots of checking

i know nothing about opponent, but his name makes me think he is better than average fish

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($600)
UTG ($696.29)
Hero ($927)
CO ($594)
Button ($1146.27)
SB ($594)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6, 5. SB posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, Hero raises to $20, 1 fold, Button calls $20, SB (poster) calls $17, 1 fold.

Flop: ($66) 8, 4, 2 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $60, SB folds, Hero calls $60.

Turn: ($186) T (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $150, Hero calls $150.

River: ($486) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks...

I'm torn between leading for $350 here or checking. I think both are fine plays, if you check and he bets out a set or something then you have his whole stack. If you lead he might put you on 56 or a slowplayed set and just call where as you could've won a bigger pot with a c/r. Very difficult decision but with the deeper stacks I like a c/r here.

if i know nothing about the opponent i try to value bet the end. i save the large end bets for opponents with whom i have a history. i think u end up getting more calls of large bets (like $350) that way. if he's a better than avg. fish, he will check behind w/ an overpair so i don't like a check. he would probably call a value bet though with that same overpair. he's not going to call a large bet w/ that same overpair. unless he's not above avg.

I'd probably value bet on the end and hope he raises. Against an unknown, I don't like the prospect of missing bets with a monster like this.

I'd also probably check-fold the flop.

His bets + board texture indicate a flopped set. This is a great spot to c/r, considering the amount of money behind.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

His bets + board texture indicate a flopped set. This is a great spot to c/r, considering the amount of money behind.

Yes, but doesn't he almost always raise with a set on this relatively benign board when hero donks out on the river?

Which hands would call a bet but check behind if checked to?

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Which hands would call a bet but check behind if checked to?

Most one pair hands.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Which hands would call a bet but check behind if checked to?

Most one pair hands.

8x/99?

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

Which hands would call a bet but check behind if checked to?

Most one pair hands.

8x/99?

Most likely.

Open-pushing the river would also be an interesting play.

I think you miss a lot of value not value betting the river, $350 sounds about right. It is possible that he has been bluffing whole way and as a good player is putting you on a missed flush draw. Either way, against unknown I value bet.

Also, I hate your flop play. what on earth were you doing there gabezor?

Originally Posted by Pingviini

Also, I hate your flop play. what on earth were you doing there gabezor?

i had an awesome well hidden draw, and if i bet and i dont want to get raised off of it. if it checks around i usually bet turn though.

You're seen as a pretty aggressive player right?

Why aren't you making aggressive moves here?

Whenever someone check/calls my PSB's all the way down and then checks the river, I check behind at least 80% of the time unless I have a set or better. Do you really think an overpair's gonna bet on the end here (especially if he's better than the average fish)?

For those who don't see it and are confused by his flop call... gabe has a double belly buster on the flop. A 3 and a 7 give him a straight and on the turn he picks up the flush draw.

I like Gabe's flop play here. It's a beautiful draw.

How much value is it right to assign the chance of a fourth flush card when calculating odds? Gabe has 8 outs on the flop, but he also has 10 cards which will then give him an extra 9 outs on the turn. So does this add, say, 2 outs to his position?

Originally Posted by Renton

You're seen as a pretty aggressive player right?

Why aren't you making aggressive moves here?

Whenever someone check/calls my PSB's all the way down and then checks the river, I check behind at least 80% of the time unless I have a set or better. Do you really think an overpair's gonna bet on the end here (especially if he's better than the average fish)?

your first two questions dont really mean anything. yea im aggressive, but i dont want to get raised off of my hand, so i dont bet.

sounds like you are losing value on the river... if you look at my line from his standpoint, i have a very weak hand. youre telling me you wouldn't bet JJ here if you were button? even if he does check behind with all one pair hands, his line looks pretty strong, like a set or air (maybe with spades?). either way, those two hands are both betting river.

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by Renton

You're seen as a pretty aggressive player right?

Why aren't you making aggressive moves here?

Whenever someone check/calls my PSB's all the way down and then checks the river, I check behind at least 80% of the time unless I have a set or better. Do you really think an overpair's gonna bet on the end here (especially if he's better than the average fish)?

your first two questions dont really mean anything. yea im aggressive, but i dont want to get raised off of my hand, so i dont bet.

sounds like you are losing value on the river... if you look at my line from his standpoint, i have a very weak hand. youre telling me you wouldn't bet JJ here if you were button? even if he does check behind with all one pair hands, his line looks pretty strong, like a set or air (maybe with spades?). either way, those two hands are both betting river.

My questions are really just so I'd understand what you were doing. I am not presuming that you played this hand incorrectly.

Don't you bet the flop heads up everytime you raised preflop? Wouldn't an aware player notice the one time when you don't?

Very fishy gabe.

Originally Posted by Renton

Don't you bet the flop heads up everytime you raised preflop? Wouldn't an aware player notice the one time when you don't?

it wasnt headsup, and even if it was doesn't mean i would bet it everytime. i check when i think betting usually ends up with tougher decisions.

oh i didn't see that it wasn't heads up

even if it was though, i might check

Anyways, what I mean to say is, I don't think your line looks that weak at all.

What kinda weak holding calls pot size bets all the way down? The only thing you can represent is a draw, and one of the draws hit.

The check on the river is pretty convincing though (as to your weakness).

I missed the 3s as outs too.... I am a fan of not c-betting EVERY flop and this is a perfect one to check since it's obviously missed any high-card hand, and it's not heads up, AND there are two people left to act (since SB checked).

The river is just a gut feel play. Basically, you have repped a draw - presumably a spade draw. That 7 actually made a huge number of straights (J9/96/65)... but unless he (and his hand) are very weak (like 2 overs or mid pair), he has to bet if you check.

so, long winded "NHANG"

Gabe, what's your plan for a spade or club river?

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

Gabe, what's your plan for a spade or club river?

i think i would bet big here if clubs hit or if a spade came that made my straight, but i would push if another spade came sometimes.