Big Hand Big Action

Playing on a new site that doesn't support Ptracker so I'll do my best.

Earlier, villain check-called AKo unimproved on 9T board vs my QJ, we hit running 4-card flushes and she checkraised me on river when she hit. She seems pretty nittaggy in general. Earlier I rivered a boat on an AQQx6 board and bet 3/4 pot and she called and mucked.

eff stacks are 280$

I raise to 7$ she calls

flop (17$) is I think for a while and check, she checks behind

turn is a beautiful , I bet 15$ she thinks for a bit and calls.

river (45$ish) is Board is now

I think for a long time and bet 65$. She INSTA raises to 165$, leaving herself 90$ish behind.

Thoughts?

your not contemplating folding are you? Unless im missing something, the only thing in her range that beats you here is 1010/44. Both seem pretty unlikely and her range is a lot wider than those 2 hands imo. I think the large majority of the time this is a 4. I shove and smile about it. Maybe even fistpump.

youre fucked

Your opponent didn't 3bet AKo pre right?

This is tricky, though I'm not folding.

44/QQ/TT have you beat. I guess the decision is whether to push or fold, right? I call if she is nitty, I just can't find the fold button here EVER. Would be sick if it was TT

The instaraise was probably a misclick.

Gross, I hate calling, folding, and pushing. Your opponent has showed in the previous hand she likes to slowplay and count on you to give the action (yeah one hand sample I know, but still...) so it's super likely this is how she would play QQ, 44. And being the nitty type she very likely plays TT like this as well.

There's not any other hands I really see her playing the hand like this and getting to the river and making that raise. I doubt a nittag plays QT for stacks on the river because they're always fearing monsters on paired boards.

Sigh and call I guess if you respect her game that much, and hate life when she shows 45.

Or sigh and push if you think she's capable of bad bluffs or overvaluing lesser hands, and hate life when she shows 4444.

Originally Posted by PokerMuzz

This is tricky, though I'm not folding.

44/QQ/TT have you beat. I guess the decision is whether to push or fold, right? I call if she is nitty, I just can't find the fold button here EVER. Would be sick if it was TT

no

QT is probably all we beat here, me thinks.

smells a lot like TT but there's no way I fold this, and I'm not raising either so call and try not to punch a hole through your monitor when the pot gets shipped her way

how bad is folding

Originally Posted by Genitruc

how bad is folding

given reads I don't think it's that bad really, but goddamn our hand is really awesome! just.....can't.....fold it, gah!

I'm curious as to what gabe, ISF, sauce, fnord, massimo, and others think about this...

Originally Posted by Genitruc

how bad is folding

I think folding could be done if your read was solid enough to trust. But it sounds like you've only played with this person for the one session so I definately don't think you can trust it that much. I've seen too many people appear to be somewhat solid or nitty then they just totally self-destruct for no reason on a hand.

I dont see how you can u fold when the only thing beating u is 44. I dont see TT INSTA-raising on river, as it takes some time to realize u just made a boat, etc etc...id AT LEAST call, most likely push.

for the record id always call unless id logged enough hands with opp to know she was "bet-literate". in those rarish cases i might actually sob, time down to 1 sec for dramatic effect, and fold.

deleted

i think when you bet 65 into 45, she just calls with QT...so 35-40 seems better, maybe even $20, to make sure QT/AQ value raises.

anyway, what u wrote seems too much like TT/44. standard is push but idk.

why would anybody call instead of push? to catch a bluff?

really, there's like AA/KK/4x in her range too.

no way a tight player has 4x here

what is this push or fold crap? We need to be ahead about twice as often to profitably push here as we need to be to profitably call.

villain is passive, not tight

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

villain is passive, not tight

She seems pretty nittaggy in general

nittaggy will never ever ever have a 4 here

Originally Posted by nutsinho

what is this push or fold crap? We need to be ahead about twice as often to profitably push here as we need to be to profitably call.

imo villain's entire range to raise is also calling a push, or at least close to it.

actually i guess this could be ace high or something, but the timing and other read makes me think QT+.

Originally Posted by benny999

Originally Posted by nutsinho

what is this push or fold crap? We need to be ahead about twice as often to profitably push here as we need to be to profitably call.

imo villain's entire range to raise is also calling a push, or at least close to it.

Yes, that means you need to be a favorite against her range to profitably push. You don't need to be a favorite against her range to call.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Originally Posted by benny999

Originally Posted by nutsinho

what is this push or fold crap? We need to be ahead about twice as often to profitably push here as we need to be to profitably call.

imo villain's entire range to raise is also calling a push, or at least close to it.

Yes, that means you need to be a favorite against her range to profitably push. You don't need to be a favorite against her range to call.

i might be wrong, but here's how i look at it:

pushing is not like putting in $190 into the pot...you first have to call the $100 then put in $90 more.

so really you're betting 90 into a huge pot that there are enough worse hands in her calling range.

in other words if there are enough worse that raise $100 more for value, then there are enough worse that call $90 on top.

Maybe i have wrong reasoning about this, but since theres a decent enough chance he has 44/TT/QQ I prefer just to call here. If we have QQ id always push though. Is this bad?

my thoughts on the hand as it played out were that we're calling to beat bluffs, right?

Well, what bluffs can a solid villain have here? Hearts almost always bet the flop, 56 is unlikely cuz of preflop nittiness, QQ 3-bets preflop almost always so that leaves TT and 44.

I'd bet, however, that 44 raises the turn to build the pot so the hand I expected to be shown here was TT. Another reason we can discount being bluffed is our river betsize. Only really really sick wackos would bluffraise this river after we overbet.

So I think it's a fold. Bleh.

also I hadn't logged a ton of hands vs villain so narrowing her range this much is probably a bit optimistic.

your overbet on the river is an awesome bet, maybe she smells bullshit and raises the roof on you because she thinks you have nothing. ever think about that?

no one overbet bluffs this small of a pot. i think betting 65 into 45 with just 77 is a major error against a decent player the way the hand has played out.

If you can narrow her range down to one hand (TT), wouldn't this make this more of a call? It seems to me none of her range makes sense. The two hands in her reasonable range that beat you are 44, and TT. However, 44 as you said would probably raise the turn to build the pot, plus how often do you nail a boat on the turn and get beat by an already made quads? As for TT, as Alexos noted, "I dont see how you can u fold when the only thing beating u is 44 (quads). I dont see TT INSTA-raising on river, as it takes some time to realize u just made a boat, etc etc...id AT LEAST call, most likely push.".

Problems with the part of the range that beats you:
TT-Usually this won't be instaraised and it is usually 3bet pf.
44-Wouldn't she want to build the pot at some point?

Her range is just wider than a possible quads 44 or 1010 imo plus theres already a decent amount in the pot. That combined with a villain you havn't played much with makes this a shove imo.

I take it you folded, but if not i would be interested in results eventually.

im almost sure calling is the worst option here so i'm going to say it another way. please say if my thinking is off.

first off i think we agree this is vvvv rarely a bluff. so why are we calling? because we expect villain to have QT or AQ enough of the time, right? are these hands folding for $90 more into an almost $600 pot?

Lol, would people please stop saying it takes you a while to realize you made a boat on the river? I instantly blow a load as soon as I see my gin cards hit and I'm sure that's not too different from anyone else. Besides, Genitruc took his time with his river action so the villain likely "realized" what they had and decided plenty in this time. Sorry if that comes off as kind of like an ass, I just finished browsing 2p2.

Also, I don't give villain credit for 3-betting QQ preflop if they don't with AK. Maybe this is a bad assumption on my part though. And I don't think always they try to build the pot at some point with QQ and 44 as this line is consistant with how so many bad players play flopped nut hands.

I want to change my choice to fold now. Hoping she played a 4x like this is way too optimistic. As is hoping that our read thus far is off enough that she can pull off this bluff. Making this fold in the moment is another thing entirely though.

Push. Opponent calls with AA KK AQ and 4x. Maybe Qx without the 4. If you're bwned, you're bwned. This opponent isn't nearly strong enough as described to be worrying about it.

Benny-can we make the argument that calling reduces variance? Yes we beat AQ, QT or wtv 4x, but we also lose to 44/TT...why is calling worse than pushing/folding

it's worse since it misses value. it's just contradictory to call but not push. i don't think variance matters.

If you make it 65$ into a 45$ pot you cant fold now, not with a nice hand like that.

What was the thinking behind the overbet?

One thing I dont realy understand is why opp dont shove if he/she has TT/QQ/44, it's pretty clear you either got nothing or a realy good hand. Even vs a random opp I think thats true. Anyone here who dont shove the river as the opp if you hold TT/QQ/44?

Originally Posted by benny999

im almost sure calling is the worst option here so i'm going to say it another way. please say if my thinking is off.

first off i think we agree this is vvvv rarely a bluff. so why are we calling? because we expect villain to have QT or AQ enough of the time, right? are these hands folding for $90 more into an almost $600 pot?

no dude.
hypothetically lets say villain has all made hands that call a shove and is beating us 65% of the time. that would make a call correct, and a fold or shove incorrect. do the math.

Originally Posted by benny999

it's worse since it misses value. it's just contradictory to call but not push. i don't think variance matters.

I don't get this. Say we are getting 3:1 odds on calling, we need to be greater than a 3:1 favourite to make the call. But, to push the rest in presuming no FE, we need have >50% equity vs. her range.

I've looked over this thread like a bajillion times because I didn't understand why the answer would be anything but push...

And after reading it over i still don't understand how the answer could be anything but push.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

Originally Posted by benny999

im almost sure calling is the worst option here so i'm going to say it another way. please say if my thinking is off.

first off i think we agree this is vvvv rarely a bluff. so why are we calling? because we expect villain to have QT or AQ enough of the time, right? are these hands folding for $90 more into an almost $600 pot?

no dude.
hypothetically lets say villain has all made hands that call a shove and is beating us 65% of the time. that would make a call correct, and a fold or shove incorrect. do the math.

my poker math is sketchy. do we look at pushing as putting $190 into a $270 pot? or $190 into a $460 pot? or $90 into a $560 pot?

Originally Posted by Genitruc

my thoughts on the hand as it played out were that we're calling to beat bluffs, right?

Well, what bluffs can a solid villain have here? Hearts almost always bet the flop, 56 is unlikely cuz of preflop nittiness, QQ 3-bets preflop almost always so that leaves TT and 44.

I'd bet, however, that 44 raises the turn to build the pot so the hand I expected to be shown here was TT. Another reason we can discount being bluffed is our river betsize. Only really really sick wackos would bluffraise this river after we overbet.

So I think it's a fold. Bleh.

i like this logic, but here's some other things...
-TT often bets the flop.
-you should bet the flop since he's calling with ace high.
-you can't completely throw out a 4 or 65. ppl show up with weird stuff at times.

if we are talking about pushing, benny, we are talking about putting another 90$ in, and it doesnt really matter how big the pot is. We are assuming he is calling 100%, which means we need to be over 50% for it to be profitable. for every additional dollar we're putting in after calling, we need to be a favorite. Shoving when you are behind his range and expect a call is nothing shy of a donation.

I dont think there's much of a difference between pushing and calling anyways, sometimes we'll call and lose, sometimes we'll push and he shows AQ. How can we say one is more +ev than the other if we're almost contemplating folding here?

Also, lol folding.

i hate how you played this

just bet bet bet-call

Originally Posted by gabe

i hate how you played this

just bet bet bet-call

Flop is usually a bet but here I felt I'd either win the tiny pot or get into a guessing game of 2-barrel bluffing with a made hand, check-calling with the worst or check/folding with the best on lots of turn cards so I tried to just keep the pot small.

only way to get better at the guessing games is to play them every now and then

Originally Posted by gabe

only way to get better at the guessing games is to play them every now and then

true

I had been getting beaten up by this player though... I try to avoid tough spots when this happens. meh.

flop check is fine

not shoving river seems silly

Originally Posted by nutsinho

if we are talking about pushing, benny, we are talking about putting another 90$ in, and it doesnt really matter how big the pot is. We are assuming he is calling 100%, which means we need to be over 50% for it to be profitable. for every additional dollar we're putting in after calling, we need to be a favorite. Shoving when you are behind his range and expect a call is nothing shy of a donation.

i had to think long about this..man my math skills are fading..but yea, you're right, we need to be >50% vs their calling range for pushing to be more ev than calling even if it's like $1 more into a $10000 pot.

the basic equation is ev = ev(call) + ev(push).
assuming we have 35% equity, then ev(push) = $93 x .35 - $93 x .65...obv a negative number, and won't be positive unless we have > 50% equity.