Bluff against non-reg (with poll!)

Villain is running 18/5 over 50 hands. He probably views me as TAGG. I assume he calls the flop with mid-pair, top pair, AK and AQ. Maybe bottom pair too but i doubt he ever has it. I also doubt he plays online poker enough to know about the frequent two barrel bluffing and aggressive play of midstakes.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($171.70)
Hero ($875.80)
Button ($367)
SB ($347)
BB ($400)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to $14, Button calls $14, 2 folds.

Flop: ($34) 5, J, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $22, Button calls $22.

Turn: ($78) A (2 players)
Hero bets $50, Button calls $50.

River: ($178) 9 (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero

Which is the best river play?:

1) Shoves
2) Bets 178
3) 3/4 pot
4) checks with the intention of folding (ldo)

bet 169

3/4 pot for value yo

Wow... alot of votes for check. Anyone want to defend that choice?

I vote c/f because he's unknown. I've lost too many stacks to guys that won't fold QJ here or other garbage.

Originally Posted by Galapogos

I vote c/f because he's unknown. I've lost too many stacks to guys that won't fold QJ here or other garbage.

Same here. I voted c/fold because I play Ongame and a J will almost never fold here in my games.

Originally Posted by bode

3/4 pot for value yo

why did i think hero had AK? i change my vote to c/f.

Originally Posted by bode

Originally Posted by bode

3/4 pot for value yo

why did i think hero had AK? i change my vote to c/f.

such a good bluff spot it fooled you even though you had the HH in front of you

more proof that you have to bet max

Regardless of stakes 18/5 is pretty fishy & we make most of our money by taking them to value town, sometimes very thinly, not by trying to bluff them?
Their went to showdown stat would be very important here, most are showdown muppets in which case 3rd barrel is a no no.

A decent bet would fold medium pp, 34,45,56 etc, some jacks & prevent him bluff betting 46 but he will still show up with his Jx, Ax too often to make it + ev I think

the real question is does a shove accomplish our goal much more often than just a PSB.

the correct answer is check/fold turn

trixy saucy!

the poll was for the river don t go breaking rules like that

Originally Posted by sauce123

the correct answer is check/fold turn

wait


what????? the ace dropped and we have nuts outs, gotta bet !

Originally Posted by sauce123

the correct answer is check/fold turn

Isn't villains most likely holdings a J or mid PP?...and isn't the A a good card to take a shot?

Or don't you expect villain to fold a J anywhere in the hand? and/or we have to fire turn and river which makes it too expensive?


The poll; after betting turn I pick betting river for 3/4PSB.

Ya I like 148. I think he'll lay down some Jacks.