This is a bluff, what, 90% of the time?

I'm not crazy to almost break a finger clicking the "call" button here, am I? Villain is a virtual unknown.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($52.05)
Hero ($52.95)
BB ($64.60)
UTG ($66.75)
MP ($50)
CO ($39.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with :Qd: :Td:.
UTG calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) :Qs: :Jc: (3 players)
Hero bets $1, BB folds, UTG calls $1.

Turn: ($3.50) (2 players)
Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2.

River: ($7.50) (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $9, Hero...

wat?

Alright, I'm maybe doing some freaky self-level - what is his range though, for real?

It seems to me like he would raise most hands that have me beat somewhere before the river, given the board. (Except possibly KT.) If he had two pair somehow, the river improves my equity against it. If he had a set and slow-played it that much, he'd have to be a real monkey. If he has anything that connected with those sixes - see previous sentence. It seems like unless he's truly awful, his range is polarized between missed straight draws (or draw + pair, maybe) and KT; and if he is truly awful I don't think I can discount the possibility of air or counterfeited two pair, which makes me think of calling more rather than less... help me out.

Thread title overstates the case but I do think there are a lot of bluffs in his range, whether he's horrible or mediocre. With this line I don't see how he can be good. UTG limp + call/call/overbet the pot... this sucker has either a monster or crap. I call, son, I call! Show 'em down!

So what do you think?

I'd actually level myself the opposite way, into thinking this is NOT a bluff.

This is a really bad spot to bluff, cause all Q's are gonna be so tempted to call. I almost feel like this is QJ/Q9 reasonably often, but I guess this could be Tx sometimes.

I definitely don't think this is an insta call.

limped pot, yo

Originally Posted by griffey24

I'd actually level myself the opposite way, into thinking this is NOT a bluff.

This is a really bad spot to bluff, cause all Q's are gonna be so tempted to call. I almost feel like this is QJ/Q9 reasonably often, but I guess this could be Tx sometimes.

I definitely don't think this is an insta call.

But do you think it's a call..?

QJ/Q9 would be so weird in this spot. Passively calling down (and basically giving free cards to a straight draw, if I have one) - then overbetting for value on a scary board..? I guess my thinking is that if he's bad enough to do that, he'd also be bad enough to make a transparent river bluff, so I still want to look him up.

yah, my gut reaction is that 90% of the time he's begging for you to call.

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

yah, my gut reaction is that 90% of the time he's begging for you to call.

So what does he have?

Originally Posted by dalecooper

QJ/Q9 would be so weird in this spot. Passively calling down (and basically giving free cards to a straight draw, if I have one) - then overbetting for value on a scary board..?

But once you check river, its suddenly very unlikely that you have KT/QJ or Q9 cause you'd definitely bet these card on the river hoping that they don't check through. So all of these hands probably comfortably think they are ahead now.

Originally Posted by griffey24

But once you check river, its suddenly very unlikely that you have KT/QJ or Q9 cause you'd definitely bet these card on the river hoping that they don't check through. So all of these hands probably comfortably think they are ahead now.

I think an opponent capable of that level of logic wouldn't just call two streets with a good but highly vulnerable hand. I have a hard time putting together all the actions in this hand into a picture of a player who could be 1. decent, and 2. ahead of me. And like I said before, if he's terrible, it just makes me lean more toward calling. He'll have a head-scratcher sometimes and a bluff the rest of the time.

Anyway, for good or ill, I made the call. (Not insta - I might have thought about it for five seconds.) I was leaning toward thinking he was turning JT or T9 into a bluff - but actually he showed down Ad 8d. If nothing else, I got to make some great notes on him.