bluffing an Ace in a re-raised pot, profitable? REPLIES PLS!

***** Hand History for Game 3941713858 *****
$1000 NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, April 10, 22:29:52 ET 2006
Table Owl Island (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: ender_555 ( $1501 )
Seat 2: x187_69_420x ( $1302.03 )
Seat 5: JACKINGOFF21 ( $333 )
Seat 3: MASTER8857 ( $965 )
Seat 6: rilleg ( $1349 )
Seat 1: pat13116 ( $2216.97 )
x187_69_420x posts small blind [$5].
MASTER8857 posts big blind [$10].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ender_555 [ 5s 5c ]
ender_555 raises [$35].
JACKINGOFF21 folds.
rilleg folds.
pat13116 folds.
x187_69_420x raises [$133.87].
MASTER8857 folds.
ender_555 calls [$103.87].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, Ac, 2c ]
x187_69_420x bets [$174.74].
ender_555 raises [$400].
x187_69_420x calls [$225.26].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kc ]
x187_69_420x checks.
ender_555 checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Jc ]
x187_69_420x bets [$452.33].
ender_555 calls [$452.33].


Ok, this player is new to me, so I figured his re-raising range wouldn't be that large, because most unknowns isn't. I thought JJ-AA/AK were likely. Based on that wouldnt making a small raise on this flop be profitable so that he pitches his pairs under AA?

Then on turn I know he has an ace, so I check through to make my flush which is most likely good.

On river, he bets out half pot, which is very surprising, as he is representing Qc. Why would he have the Qc? AxQc is possible, but I thought that would be unlikely. So I called, expecting too see some poorly played set or 2 pair.

Please comment on all streets.. this is by no means a standard hand for me and I was experimenting.

Wow what a donkey play ..

nh sir =)

I really like your analysis and thinking. I have a couple of questions though. Isn't this a fold preflop? If you put him on that narrow of a hand range I think preflop is a -ev call. Also, your flop raise is just a little more than a minraise. I think QcQx could look you up here, if he thinks your range is bigger than Ax, plus the backdoor flush draw. Also, could he possibly be inside your head, and know that A-high flops are great to bluff? What do you think about floating the flop? An unknown probably doesn't fire twice without the A, right? Lastly, I think his less than 1/2 pot river bet is very suspect. Do you think he bets like this with a set/AK? Why not just check/call from his perspective if he thinks he is good?

One more thing. If he checks the river, are you value-betting here?

I will fold here preflop unless two conditions are met: 1. you are reasonably sure he has QQ/KK/AA 2. you are reasonably sure you will stack him if you hit a set. Flop raise is questionable; I think this is a breakeven play if you had raised more, your small raise probably gets called by KK/QQ too often to be a good play.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

Isn't this a fold preflop? If you put him on that narrow of a hand range I think preflop is a -ev call.

I think it would be +EV if I put him on that range, and -EV if it's larger right? If I hit my set I'm most likely stacking him, and if I'm not then I need to learn how to bluff in situations that he can't be stacked. This is one of them. I may be wrong, but I think if he has a narrow range this call is definitely good. We have a little more than 100BB stacks.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

Also, your flop raise is just a little more than a minraise. I think QcQx could look you up here

It's possible, but unlikely. This is why I should not try big bluffs on unknown's. IF he call's with QQ here it's not for the backdoor flush draw, and it's a -EV play. I will exploit him later if he has QQ.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

Also, could he possibly be inside your head, and know that A-high flops are great to bluff?

I've never done this, so if he is, i'll be impressed.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

What do you think about floating the flop? An unknown probably doesn't fire twice without the A, right?

this may be the best line, but I would much rather take it with a player that I know, as I'm going to have to make a fairly big bet on the turn to get him to fold. Also, if any face card or club hits he's going to check to me anyways, and he may or maynot fold when I bet. He definitley wont fold if he hit a set, and he probably won't fold an ace or a flopped set either.

Originally Posted by bdawg65kg

Lastly, I think his less than 1/2 pot river bet is very suspect. Do you think he bets like this with a set/AK? Why not just check/call from his perspective if he thinks he is good?

true, I think it's a poorly played hand by villian NO MATTER WHAT he has however. if he has AxQc then he shouldnt of re-raised preflop. if he has QxQc he shouldve folded flop. TxTc no way does this come along for the ride. What is he going to do on a turn when 1/3 of the deck is overcards.

All in all, I expect too see AA/AK at least half the time, but I don't need too to make this call profitable. His bet is about half the pot, so I need to win here 1/3 of the time or something like that.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

One more thing. If he checks the river, are you value-betting here?

Yes, I would probably bet 450. It's enough that I can't really get check-raised bluffed, but that AK-AA might look up. (I know I would call it with AA-AK had the hand played out like this. On the other hand, I wouldve led the turn with AA-AK as well...)

Originally Posted by PO$$E$$ED

I will fold here preflop unless two conditions are met: 1. you are reasonably sure he has QQ/KK/AA 2. you are reasonably sure you will stack him if you hit a set. Flop raise is questionable; I think this is a breakeven play if you had raised more, your small raise probably gets called by KK/QQ too often to be a good play.

probably true. I shouldve raised to 550-600.

Originally Posted by ender555

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

Isn't this a fold preflop? If you put him on that narrow of a hand range I think preflop is a -ev call.

I think it would be +EV if I put him on that range, and -EV if it's larger right? If I hit my set I'm most likely stacking him, and if I'm not then I need to learn how to bluff in situations that he can't be stacked. This is one of them. I may be wrong, but I think if he has a narrow range this call is definitely good. We have a little more than 100BB stacks.

Yeah, you're right. Dunno what I was thinking.

first i'd like to thank you for posting this. this is a perfect example of why i enjoy reading the high stakes forum more than any other forum here. how much of your analysis throughout this thread was actually going through your head during the hand, and how much of it is hindsight anaysis?

Could he have 9c9x? Pretty loose re-raise... and no turn bet?

I think you are likely good... but my butt clenches at the thought of a 5 high flush vs. unknown.

I think you are right he has AA, and must have been hoping to check/raise the turn.
When you checked behind, he has to just hope you don't have the flush.

Originally Posted by beez

first i'd like to thank you for posting this. this is a perfect example of why i enjoy reading the high stakes forum more than any other forum here. how much of your analysis throughout this thread was actually going through your head during the hand, and how much of it is hindsight anaysis?

A lot of what I do at the tables comes naturally from playing so much poker and reading so about so many hands.. My call on the river was completely thought out, and not a "tilt call". My raise on the flop was not very well thought out, however. That was more of a table move I would say. In hindsight, I think floating(calling to bluff the turn/river) would be much better... If I wasn't going to float, I would pop it to 575 and then make the same call on the river if he call's and checks turn.


BTW: he flipped over pocket aces and I raked it in.