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 Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
Isn't this a fold preflop? If you put him on that narrow of a hand range I think preflop is a -ev call.
I think it would be +EV if I put him on that range, and -EV if it's larger right? If I hit my set I'm most likely stacking him, and if I'm not then I need to learn how to bluff in situations that he can't be stacked. This is one of them. I may be wrong, but I think if he has a narrow range this call is definitely good. We have a little more than 100BB stacks.
Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
Also, your flop raise is just a little more than a minraise. I think QcQx could look you up here
It's possible, but unlikely. This is why I should not try big bluffs on unknown's. IF he call's with QQ here it's not for the backdoor flush draw, and it's a -EV play. I will exploit him later if he has QQ.
Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
Also, could he possibly be inside your head, and know that A-high flops are great to bluff?
I've never done this, so if he is, i'll be impressed.
Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
What do you think about floating the flop? An unknown probably doesn't fire twice without the A, right?
this may be the best line, but I would much rather take it with a player that I know, as I'm going to have to make a fairly big bet on the turn to get him to fold. Also, if any face card or club hits he's going to check to me anyways, and he may or maynot fold when I bet. He definitley wont fold if he hit a set, and he probably won't fold an ace or a flopped set either.
Originally Posted by bdawg65kg
Lastly, I think his less than 1/2 pot river bet is very suspect. Do you think he bets like this with a set/AK? Why not just check/call from his perspective if he thinks he is good?
true, I think it's a poorly played hand by villian NO MATTER WHAT he has however. if he has AxQc then he shouldnt of re-raised preflop. if he has QxQc he shouldve folded flop. TxTc no way does this come along for the ride. What is he going to do on a turn when 1/3 of the deck is overcards.
All in all, I expect too see AA/AK at least half the time, but I don't need too to make this call profitable. His bet is about half the pot, so I need to win here 1/3 of the time or something like that.
Originally Posted by bdawg56kg
One more thing. If he checks the river, are you value-betting here?
Yes, I would probably bet 450. It's enough that I can't really get check-raised bluffed, but that AK-AA might look up. (I know I would call it with AA-AK had the hand played out like this. On the other hand, I wouldve led the turn with AA-AK as well...)
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