I really like your analysis and thinking. I have a couple of questions though. Isn't this a fold preflop? If you put him on that narrow of a hand range I think preflop is a -ev call. Also, your flop raise is just a little more than a minraise. I think QcQx could look you up here, if he thinks your range is bigger than Ax, plus the backdoor flush draw. Also, could he possibly be inside your head, and know that A-high flops are great to bluff? What do you think about floating the flop? An unknown probably doesn't fire twice without the A, right? Lastly, I think his less than 1/2 pot river bet is very suspect. Do you think he bets like this with a set/AK? Why not just check/call from his perspective if he thinks he is good?

One more thing. If he checks the river, are you value-betting here?