Bluffing a Nit

Opp is 10/8, has folded big hands before. I've played with him a lot, and probably things im lagg. I don't think he leads out here without at least top pair.

PokerStars Game #8039086203: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/20 - 17:40:57 (ET)
Table 'Orsilocus' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Fredorazia ($52.10 in chips)
Seat 2: bigreddewd ($110.20 in chips)
Seat 3: redgrape ($103.05 in chips)
Seat 4: Baldinio ($87.50 in chips)
Seat 5: BigC79 ($126.20 in chips)
Seat 6: actionDJ ($103.10 in chips)
actionDJ: posts small blind $0.50
Fredorazia: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Jh Th]
bigreddewd: folds
redgrape: raises $3 to $4
Baldinio: folds
BigC79: folds
actionDJ: calls $3.50
Fredorazia: calls $3
*** FLOP *** [8c 3s Qc]
actionDJ: bets $7
Fredorazia: folds
redgrape: calls $7
*** TURN *** [8c 3s Qc] [5c]
actionDJ: checks
redgrape: bets $19
actionDJ: calls $19
*** RIVER *** [8c 3s Qc 5c] [Ah]
actionDJ: checks
redgrape: bets $45

I think the problem here is he probably has AQ or a set. If you really want to do this you have to overbet the pot a lot.

like double the pot, a lot.

But I'm not sure I'd do that with a flush.

When lead into on the flop do you just call with a FD? Would villain ever lead into you with a FD? I dont think a flush is often played like this, especially by a "lagg" and AQ [basically the only hand the river ace would help you with] wouldnt make a ton of sense because I dont know how often you are betting the turn, except maybe with the ace of clubs.

Basically, I dont like this a ton. If you want to try to rep the flush, I raise the flop. As played, I just dont think our hand makes a ton of sense and given the read on our villain, I doubt he is going to be folding here that often.

I like it. I think a nit gives you credit for a flush a lot here.

I think this is pretty good.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I think this is pretty good.

I would fold a set here IMO if I knew the guy was solid.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by dsaxton

I think this is pretty good.

I would fold a set here IMO if I knew the guy was solid.

I wouldnt, not against a PFRer. I check with the intention of calling and hoping you'll bluff, as my bet has zero value.

What people are overlooking here is that this guy is a 10/8, and he cold called preflop! This is a very narrow range, like 66-QQ (is that even too wide?) narrow, possibly AQ.

I think the problem with the bluff is that you have to get someone to fold a set or Top Two Pair... and that's really tough. And yes i do believe some people would overbet that river with a flush. I think if you push the river you may get him to fold, but i don't think you get him to fold enough here.

I think this is a bad spot to bluff.

Originally Posted by Massimo

This is a very narrow range, like 66-QQ (is that even too wide?) narrow, possibly AQ.

Your range is a little too tight. I see KK/KQ calling the turn easy, not willing to give up from a possibly bluffed turn. He's clearly giving me a lot of credit for a flush, as he didn't raise what was a possible flush draw on the turn.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by Massimo

This is a very narrow range, like 66-QQ (is that even too wide?) narrow, possibly AQ.

Your range is a little too tight. I see KK/KQ calling the turn easy, not willing to give up from a possibly bluffed turn. He's clearly giving me a lot of credit for a flush, as he didn't raise what was a possible flush draw on the turn.

Do you really think KK is in his range? I mean _maybe_ it is possible, but nothing we really should put much weight at all to, and a 10/8 is not playing KQ to a raise while in the SB.

If QQ is than KK is. KQ, versus a loose raiser I wouldn't be suprised if he did.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

If QQ is than KK is. KQ, versus a loose raiser I wouldn't be suprised if he did.

Most players, let alone nits, do not play QQ and KK the same. I 3bet both from any position basically every time, a 10/8 player could easily smooth call with QQ while 3betting KK, I would be surprised if they smooth called KK here very often, but I still think KQ is less likely than even KK. Yea, against a loose raiser I am most likely 3betting KQ PF as most solid players will; however, a 10/8 is simply not adjusting _that_ much to their opponents, otherwise they wouldnt be 10/8.

In all honesty, from a lot of the hands you have posted recently I feel like you are trying too hard to outplay people postflop and I really think it is going to get you in trouble.

Originally Posted by andy-akb

In all honesty, from a lot of the hands you have posted recently I feel like you are trying too hard to outplay people postflop and I really think it is going to get you in trouble.

I think he has a point, Danny...

I'd like zook and dsaxton to explain themselves then.

just push river