bottom set, kind of interesting hand

Villain in this hand is a pretty solid tagg, although perhaps a bit outmatched in this particular game, which consisted of 6 regulars. I had played with him more at 1/2 6max, he respects me, and this bet is a bluff exactly 0% of the time. Stats are 24/10, and as I hinted at above, this player does not spew in big pots post-flop. This also isn't 2 pair. FWIW, when I first started playing with him at NL200, I thought he was a 2+2 mold-type player.

I think given that I lead strongly into 2 players twice OOP, he probably puts me on a set a large portion of the time (this player clearly thinks).

Preflop raiser's just-call on the turn makes me nearly certain that I'm ahead of him, as I think it's almost a given that he would raise the (unlikely) better hand on a board that's getting pretty wicked. I think his most likely hand is an overpair, which he will drop to villain's push, regardless of what I decide to do.

I beat a semi-bluff and a badly overplayed overpair. I'm crushed by an overset and very behind the unlikely, but not impossible straight (45) on the board. I think he usually drops this preflop with nobody else in the pot versus the preflop raiser, even suited.

Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($657.50)
UTG ($505.75)
MP ($751.40)
CO ($488)
Button ($398)
Hero ($868.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 2, 2.
1 fold, MP raises to $14, CO calls $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $12, 1 fold.

Flop: ($46) 2, 6, T (3 players)
Hero bets $30, MP calls $30, CO calls $30.

Turn: ($136) 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $100, MP calls $100, CO raises to $444 Hero.......

Before everyone says omg wtf easy call, I want to reiterate the following points:

I think given that I lead strongly into 2 players twice OOP, he probably puts me on a set a large portion of the time (this player clearly thinks).

this player does not spew in big pots post-flop.

I'm going to ignore results but post what I decided to do later.

and this bet is a bluff exactly 0% of the time.

..but a semi-bluff is possible?

An overpair doesn't make sense, so you're up vs. the overset/straight too often to call this..

if he has a set his flop play is really shitty, which makes me think hes not a good player, which makes this a call

Knowing who villian is might skew my opinion, rather than just using the description you gave, but... I think this is a fold. From looking over previous hands w/ this guy, he seems pretty passive, and has a tendency to slowplay, so I'd expect him to have 66/TT almost every time.

Quote:
I think given that I lead strongly into 2 players twice OOP, he probably puts me on a set a large portion of the time (this player clearly thinks).

Not to mention the fact that there's another guy in the pot who seems to like his hand as well. Add deep stacks to the mix and I think this is a crying fold.

i think that in your description you clearly defined the answer for us as fold and we can't tell you otherwise without ignoring your detailed instructions telling us to tell you to fold.

Yes, that too.

Originally Posted by Greedo017

i think that in your description you clearly defined the answer for us as fold and we can't tell you otherwise without ignoring your detailed instructions telling us to tell you to fold.

Well, for what it's worth, at the time I was pretty certain I was beat, using the simple logic that I was playing my hand face-up, and I still got pushed back at by a fairly passive villain. There was also the big concern of a deep stacked player that smooth called my large turn bet behind me. I can't really call and fold to a push, and regardless of whether I call or push, I'm basically getting nothing out of him if I'm ahead (this player is not a donkey by any stretch, and is done with the hand if he has an overpair) and my stack is going in against all better hands.

However, it's tough to put villain on a better hand because I think he usually raises a set on this flop, although bdawg may be right in that he could slowplay it as well, which would be pretty bad but certainly possible. There's also the possibility of the straight, and I think there's a good chance that this player would call with 45 on the flop, but I think it's unlikely he calls with it preflop. He probably insta-mucks it if it's unsuited and sometimes calls with it if suited. That's just a guess based on my assumptions of players like him.

I kind of agree with you that what I've said so far has 'convinced' people to fold here which was not my intent, I was just trying to set up the situation properly. I'll post results in a bit. I also have what I feel is kind of an interesting point about this hand (and so many others like it) that I think people will enjoy.

how many times do you lead with a flush draw, flush/gutshot or any pair here into the preflop raisor?

The only thing i see here is that opp read you for a set and knew he couldnt bloat the pot on the flop as you'd probably get it all in so he called on the flop and went at a big bluff on the turn perhaps with a flush draw or something else because he thought you might fold bottom set if you know he doesnt spew postflop.
Having said that it could just be simple set over set and the way players play is more importnat than the actual cards. Eg. If you cant beat his push range here you dont call, simple as...

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

how many times do you lead with a flush draw, flush/gutshot or any pair here into the preflop raisor?

Really depends, even 3-way my range is much wider then set on the flop. But leading into 2 players twice out of position really narrows my range down. It's not exclusively set at this point but I think it's fair to say that a big part of my range is. What is far more important is what my opponent perceives my range to be here, and like I said I'm pretty much playing with cards face up on the table, and I think he expects me to have a set here. I don't think that he thinks I'll ever lay it down. Or lay it down nearly enough for even a semi-bluff to be even remotely profitable.

The only thing i see here is that opp read you for a set and knew he couldnt bloat the pot on the flop as you'd probably get it all in so he called on the flop and went at a big bluff on the turn perhaps with a flush draw or something else because he thought you might fold bottom set if you know he doesnt spew postflop.
Having said that it could just be simple set over set and the way players play is more importnat than the actual cards. Eg. If you cant beat his push range here you dont call, simple as...

Good point, I'm not quite as familiar with this player as it seems like bdawg was so I really don't know what his range here is. I think set/straight makes up a good chunk of it. I don't know if this player semi-bluffs for a stack on the turn with 2 players showing a lot of interest in the hand, but it's not out of the question and I'd expect to see some kind of combo draw here more often then a naked flush draw. Maybe a hand like Ts9s. Maybe this is bad, but my assumption about guys like this is that they rarely make moves like that.

Originally Posted by Lukie

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

how many times do you lead with a flush draw, flush/gutshot or any pair here into the preflop raisor?

Really depends, even 3-way my range is much wider then set on the flop. But leading into 2 players twice out of position really narrows my range down. It's not exclusively set at this point but I think it's fair to say that a big part of my range is. What is far more important is what my opponent perceives my range to be here, and like I said I'm pretty much playing with cards face up on the table, and I think he expects me to have a set here. I don't think that he thinks I'll ever lay it down. Or lay it down nearly enough for even a semi-bluff to be even remotely profitable.

The only thing i see here is that opp read you for a set and knew he couldnt bloat the pot on the flop as you'd probably get it all in so he called on the flop and went at a big bluff on the turn perhaps with a flush draw or something else because he thought you might fold bottom set if you know he doesnt spew postflop.
Having said that it could just be simple set over set and the way players play is more importnat than the actual cards. Eg. If you cant beat his push range here you dont call, simple as...

Good point, I'm not quite as familiar with this player as it seems like bdawg was so I really don't know what his range here is. I think set/straight makes up a good chunk of it. I don't know if this player semi-bluffs for a stack on the turn with 2 players showing a lot of interest in the hand, but it's not out of the question and I'd expect to see some kind of combo draw here more often then a naked flush draw. Maybe a hand like Ts9s. Maybe this is bad, but my assumption about guys like this is that they rarely make moves like that.

if hes capable of thinking, i was wondering how deep.

I think you lay this down because you dont beat much that is his range, id just be interested if he might have the straight a whole lot here.