BVB AK make nitty river fold vs. passive player?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($418)
UTG ($203.35)
MP ($212)
CO ($160.75)
Button ($191)
Hero ($213.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A.
4 folds, Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($12) K, 4, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, BB raises to $20, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($52) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $24, Hero calls $24.

River: ($100) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $50, Hero calls $50.

Final Pot: $200

15/11 player, doesnt 3b. No crazy moves. I figured I have to call because a FD is enough of his range, but I haven't really seen him bluff so I figured him for 2p here. I don't think he bets KJ/K10

Tbh i think your smoked here way to often to justify a river call as its fairly unlikely he fires 3 barrels with anything worse, even a missed flush draw with his passive tendencies. Its also unlikely he has a flush draw as you have the ace of spades plus having the k or q high f draw would likely result in him checking thro due to him pairing up. So his most likely holdings here are kq,44,88 and at a stretch k8. With all of these beating you river is a fold for me. I also noticed his weird less than half pot turn bet which seems like hes really trying to not scare you away and his river bet looks like a value bet if ever i saw one.

Originally Posted by mixchange

15/11 player, doesnt 3b. No crazy moves. I figured I have to call because a FD is enough of his range, but I haven't really seen him bluff so I figured him for 2p here. I don't think he bets KJ/K10

The key stat we need is missing: AF?

The 15/11 only defines a certain number of hands preflop, and on the fringes of that cold calling range (depending upon villain) is KJs and maybe A9s+ that might play this line.

You said in title he's passive. How do we know?

Originally Posted by mixchange

I don't think he bets KJ/K10

Why not? He could have KJs, easily, and betting TPWK with flush draw outs - which don't hit. Or he could have a naked King and think top pair is good.

The only two pair hand possible is KQ, and putting him on this narrow range even on the river seems silly - he could have a bunch of great draws and combo hands that missed and just be firing a weak bluff on the river to try to nab the pot. I'm probably betting the turn and check/calling the river. But I need more info.

There's a big difference between AF = 1.7 passive and AF = 0.3 passive, and we need to know #hands and AF to make any decent HUD read, here. BTW, 15/11 is reasonably agro preflop, so we need evidence to think of him as weak-tight postflop. A solid note or AF stats, please.

Agree that we need af stats as well as agr stats on each street as they could change my viewing of the hand and vils range considerably. But with the current description of the villain i dont agree he bets this river with kj, k10, he wud more likely check behind river. Hed also never bet this river with top pair weak kick and would check it down. I also dont get why you are disregarding 44 or 88 in this spot as hed play them the same. Yes its possible he has 45 spades, 67 spades etc but his range is weighted far more to hands we lose to.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by mixchange

15/11 player, doesnt 3b. No crazy moves. I figured I have to call because a FD is enough of his range, but I haven't really seen him bluff so I figured him for 2p here. I don't think he bets KJ/K10

The key stat we need is missing: AF?

The 15/11 only defines a certain number of hands preflop, and on the fringes of that cold calling range (depending upon villain) is KJs and maybe A9s+ that might play this line.

You said in title he's passive. How do we know?

Well, I observed the table. I forgot to note the aggro factor. From my observations of sitting for 20 mins he seemed passive. not someone aggro showing down razor thin value and bluffs. I.e., we know he has some kind of hand here.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by mixchange

I don't think he bets KJ/K10

Why not? He could have KJs, easily, and betting TPWK with flush draw outs - which don't hit. Or he could have a naked King and think top pair is good.

The only two pair hand possible is KQ, and putting him on this narrow range even on the river seems silly - he could have a bunch of great draws and combo hands that missed and just be firing a weak bluff on the river to try to nab the pot. I'm probably betting the turn and check/calling the river. But I need more info.

There's a big difference between AF = 1.7 passive and AF = 0.3 passive, and we need to know #hands and AF to make any decent HUD read, here. BTW, 15/11 is reasonably agro preflop, so we need evidence to think of him as weak-tight postflop. A solid note or AF stats, please.

KQ/KJ/AK/FD are the most likely culprits here, with set being possible also. I don't see him playing much else like this. That makes us behind his range if I think he is rarely bluffing river on a missed draw..

I also strongly disagree with 15/11 being aggro preflop. It is simpley a measure of his range and raising frequency, saying nothing with how much reraising he does or how he will play his draws or pounce when I show weakness.

Originally Posted by mixchange

I also strongly disagree with 15/11 being aggro preflop. It is simpley a measure of his range and raising frequency, saying nothing with how much reraising he does or how he will play his draws or pounce when I show weakness.

I think we agree and are saying the same thing different ways. I read your note about "villain is 15/11 and passive." I thought, "Hmm...strange." To me, there are two very distinct kinds of aggression, preflop and postflop. But any aggression factor is simply calculated as:

AF = ( Bets + Raises) / Calls

Since he's 15/11 preflop, and since preflop any opening bet counts as a raise, he's raising 11% of his hands and limping/calling 4%. (Actually, this is off slightly, since it's possible to raise, get 3bet and flat call - but it will do for an estimate). So villain's preflop aggression is 11/4 or 2.75.

We don't usually talk about preflop aggression, but it is a real stat. My point was that in absence of other statistical evidence, agro preflop players are likely to be agro postflop.

Your point was that, based on observation, he seemed to be playing passively postflop.

These two points aren't necessarily incompatible. Lot's of villains get weak-tight postflop, even the ones who are agro preflop. I'd just like to see a postflop AF stat to know what kind of passivity we're talking about.

i think c/f is good here, aggainst the type of player that you described, the only hands you are beating are like missed draws

i agree w/ most of what robb said. and hes right that a lot of people dont take into account the differences between preflop and postflop aggression. its probably a big reason why a lot of players struggle at 1/2 and up. it doesnt seem like a big deal, but it actually will make the difference a huge portion of the time with regards to the types of reads u end up making.

He's giving you such good odds I think calling down is good. Only hands he has that beat you are KQ, 44, 88. No other 2 pair hands are possible because of how tight he is pre. It's possible you are getting towned here, but I would be happy that villain gave you a relatively cheap showdown.

also u have to take into consideration why u called his minraise on the flop instead of putting in another raise ... it was in order to call him down ... not to call the raise, call a turn bet, then fold the river ... tahts just silly.

call allllll day. shit i call at fullring. dont fold when you got odds

Originally Posted by Marshall28

also u have to take into consideration why u called his minraise on the flop instead of putting in another raise ... it was in order to call him down ... not to call the raise, call a turn bet, then fold the river ... tahts just silly.

yes but just because someone is 15/11 doesn't make me consider them that aggro preflop. The 15/11 type player is so common now it doesn't seem that aggro to me in general. If he's 15/11 and doesn't 3b much any never 4bets anything but AA/KK, I do not personally consider them aggro preflop.


anyway, I called for most of the reasons everyone listed here and he did have KQ. Just wondered if given the circumstances I could ever fold. I def felt like I was valuetowned.