bvsb flop 2nd nut flush, river fake block to induce a shove?

Villain is kinda tricky, possibly even half-decent for the stakes, 21-17 and 3.5% 3-bet over 200 hands. He doesn't fold flops to c-bets much (33%) and is kinda floaty/likes to steal pots.
He's possibly steaming from a hand in the last few minutes on another table against me where I stack him JJ vs AK blind vs blind.

Obviously I'm not concerned that my flush is only the second nut.
River I bet to try and rep a block/fear and hope that he'll shove over vs my obvious weakness with his entire range.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($53.55)
UTG ($41.33)
Hero (SB) ($50)
Button ($86.97)
MP ($53.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 10
3 folds, Hero bets $1.75, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) 6, 4, K (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

Turn: ($10) J (2 players)
Hero bets $8.50, BB calls $8.50

River: ($27) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $8,

The question is... WHY?

If he is semi competent he is like never going to shove top pair or 2 pair hoping your going to think he is bluffing and call with a pair and a missed FD, like ever. (I think)

I quite like a river C/R.

Originally Posted by Luke999

I quite like a river C/R.

that's what I was thinking, if you were going to play it tricky might as well c/r river for value because he will bet anything that beats a king for value

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by Luke999

I quite like a river C/R.

that's what I was thinking, if you were going to play it tricky might as well c/r river for value because he will bet anything that beats a king for value

I don't like it. Pretty sure he almost never has anything that beats a king. He's in bluffcatch mode and I think we should punish him here.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by Luke999

I quite like a river C/R.

that's what I was thinking, if you were going to play it tricky might as well c/r river for value because he will bet anything that beats a king for value

no

Originally Posted by Galapogos

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by Luke999

I quite like a river C/R.

that's what I was thinking, if you were going to play it tricky might as well c/r river for value because he will bet anything that beats a king for value

I don't like it. Pretty sure he almost never has anything that beats a king. He's in bluffcatch mode and I think we should punish him here.

I'd say pot river >>> c/r river >>>>>>>> bet tiny

He's just gonna flat your bet here super often, pretty much all of his range is showdown bound or a missed draw, I feel like there are spots for fake block bets but this just isn't one of them. It's easier for you to rep a missed naked Ad by betting big on the river and getting a call from a king. I'd prefer to just check if you did want to induce, but I still think he's showdown bound a ton.

i'm glad i posted this.

You're right, he's unlikely to be shoving over any range that he isn't calling with, he's definitely going to be calling pot with his two pair. Noted, inappropriate time to get all fps. I think i was lucky not to miss a tonne of value against his likely holdings

Thanks

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($53.55)
UTG ($41.33)
Hero (SB) ($50)
Button ($86.97)
MP ($53.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, 10
3 folds, Hero bets $1.75, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4) 6, 4, K (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BB calls $3

Turn: ($10) J (2 players)
Hero bets $8.50, BB calls $8.50

River: ($27) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BB raises to $40.05 (All-In), Hero calls $28.50 (All-In)

Total pot: $100

Results:
Hero had Q, 10 (flush, King high).
BB had J, K (two pair, Kings and Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $97.50

if you shove this river you get called by any flush, any 2pr and probably most Kings. if he has less than a K i think he's folding to any river bet.

if he seems super bluffy and has like river 70% bet frequency then its best to check cuz he'll bet 2pr+ anyway and also a lot of bluffs.

by noting the stack sizes, am I greedy to want to pot turn and shove river?

Originally Posted by iopq

by noting the stack sizes, am I greedy to want to pot turn and shove river?

Unless you have a bad image and he has a lesser flush I don't see how this is more profitable than making bets that are more appropriate for the range of hands he's just calling you down with here.

Originally Posted by Galapogos

Originally Posted by iopq

by noting the stack sizes, am I greedy to want to pot turn and shove river?

Unless you have a bad image and he has a lesser flush I don't see how this is more profitable than making bets that are more appropriate for the range of hands he's just calling you down with here.

two pair/sets call me here
maybe I have a bad image?

turn isnt so important i think here, we're already betting near pot.
i just think on the river if we assume he's calling near PSB with good K, 2pr/set/fllush hands then he'll also call $40 (ie shove)

It's bvb and people don't believe you bvb.

I shove this river all day.

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by Galapogos

Originally Posted by iopq

by noting the stack sizes, am I greedy to want to pot turn and shove river?

Unless you have a bad image and he has a lesser flush I don't see how this is more profitable than making bets that are more appropriate for the range of hands he's just calling you down with here.

two pair/sets call me here
maybe I have a bad image?

No, I just suck at reading HH's. Didn't realize it was BvB.

Theres really no way you can fold this because his shoving range is way wider than Ax of diamonds, the only hand that beats yours.

Originally Posted by golfguy37

Theres really no way you can fold this because his shoving range is way wider than Ax of diamonds, the only hand that beats yours.

we're not folding here... we're inducing...

I like it. Put it with a nice little fake timing tell and I think you induce a shove vs many players

Originally Posted by Galapogos

Originally Posted by iopq

Originally Posted by Galapogos

Originally Posted by iopq

by noting the stack sizes, am I greedy to want to pot turn and shove river?

Unless you have a bad image and he has a lesser flush I don't see how this is more profitable than making bets that are more appropriate for the range of hands he's just calling you down with here.

two pair/sets call me here
maybe I have a bad image?

No, I just suck at reading HH's. Didn't realize it was BvB.

regardless of BvB i think your first comment is right on. Marshall is right that he has a ton of showdown hands here, way more that 2pr+ and straight valuebets are much better that pot turn/shove river.

bet 22$, or try to make it slightly bigger on previous streets to make it closer to a pot sized river shove

if you pot the flop i think that pretty much gets er done for later streets in terms of bet sizing.

always keep your opp's stack size in mind every single street you play since there's very few hands in a given day you really want to get all the $ in by the river...

Originally Posted by Alexos

bet 25$, or try to make it slightly bigger on previous streets to make it closer to a pot sized river shove

FYP
if he's calling $22, he's calling $25 with the same frequency, might as well make extra $3

he starts calling less when we start overbetting