c/f river anyone?

Villain is twomountains who is running like 20/15/3 over 75 hands. He seems like a reg although i've never seen him and he's not spewy so far. I think he will almost never bluff the river when checked to.

I'm running looser than normal but i haven't showed down any bluffs or anything.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($177)
Hero ($231.65)
BB ($73)
UTG ($236.80)
MP ($593.35)
CO ($200)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J.
2 folds, CO raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $26, 1 fold, CO calls $18.

Flop: ($53) 7, 3, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $38, CO calls $38.

Turn: ($129) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: ($129) A (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]Hero ................

bet/folds? about $80?

Why are you considering c/f instead of b/f? He has to occasionally call with worse here.

Hmm is definitely bet/fold river but what size depends on villian. probably go within 50-100.

i like bet/fold a lot better too.

Originally Posted by zook

Why are you considering c/f instead of b/f? He has to occasionally call with worse here.

yeah... i just don't see what he calls with that i'm beating.

yeah but i dont really see what he has that beats you besides something like AQ diamonds.
to me it looks like he has a pocket pair that didnt hit a set and hes playing it passively. might as well make a value bet i can see him calling down with something like 88.

Bet/folds is much better because your hand is extremely transparent. You often get looked up by worse but you are never raised with worse.

Originally Posted by Massimo

Originally Posted by zook

Why are you considering c/f instead of b/f? He has to occasionally call with worse here.

yeah... i just don't see what he calls with that i'm beating.

Your looking for value against pairs. river is also a good scare card to bluff so maybe opp will call with PPs. Only thing im thinking of is whats the best bet size given we will rarely be raised.

if hes good doesnt he just raise the river with any ace and push you off your hand.

c/c or b/f depending on reads. Or if you are me and autoshove this river as a bluff often and he knows it, then you can shove lol.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

if hes good doesnt he just raise the river with any ace and push you off your hand.

I'd be surprised if he raised it with any A except AK. I don't think he has any A besides AK-AQ anyway.

Can someone please name a hand that calls that's worse than mine? I don't think he calls with TT but maybe JJ-QQ... And he may never play JJ-QQ like this.

Originally Posted by Massimo

Originally Posted by zook

Why are you considering c/f instead of b/f? He has to occasionally call with worse here.

yeah... i just don't see what he calls with that i'm beating.

a pair, a worse ace

EZ bet

If you check he probably thinks you have nothing, and if he has a medium pair say 88, he will check as he probably thinks he is ahead and there is no value in betting it, he might bet a missed flush draw but apart from that I dont think he is betting anything you have beat, so I think C/F could be good depending on how often you think he is betting a missed flush draw here.

If you bet, I dont think he will call often with a worse hand as your hand looks exactly like it is. You may be able to get him to call a really small bet, say $40 or something. If he raises ask yourself if he thinks you are capable of folding an AK here as that is probably what he will put you on, the answer is probably no - so a fold is best.

Ok so if i bet/fold how much should i bet? toadstool says 40, chopper says 80. I think around 50 is good.

i like 50.

I like $60.

120/fold

the bigger you bet, the more you make when he calls!!

bet what you would bet with KQ in same spot

What's your 3betting frequency been like?

a little loose buit nothing retarded

I kinda like the idea of betting 114 because you'd probably bet less with an Ace.

So lets say given a perfect calculation we come to the conclusion that a bet in a vacuum is just slightly -EV. Do we still bet because of game theory?

Anything around a PSB reeks of an Ace IMO. It's like the cheapest trick in the value levelling book. I like a standard 2/3 pot.

85$ is the right amount

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Anything around a PSB reeks of an Ace IMO. It's like the cheapest trick in the value levelling book.

woops

unless you think he will be thinking another level up?

ISF: Surely if we check it protects our bluffs better from a game theory perspective?

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

ISF: Surely if we check it protects our bluffs better from a game theory perspective?

Huh? Explain?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

So lets say given a perfect calculation we come to the conclusion that a bet in a vacuum is just slightly -EV. Do we still bet because of game theory?

we dont play in a vacuum

this is a bet

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

So lets say given a perfect calculation we come to the conclusion that a bet in a vacuum is just slightly -EV. Do we still bet because of game theory?

we dont play in a vacuum

this is a bet

That's my question, so the non vacuum concepts, which is assume is mostly game theory, makes up for sub par value right?

oh and of course metagame

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Anything around a PSB reeks of an Ace IMO. It's like the cheapest trick in the value levelling book. I like a standard 2/3 pot.

On the 1st level, i would interpret a big bet as either a missed flush or a full house. I think a smaller bet really narrows our range to only A-x, as it seems like it is obviously for value.

Considering that we should probably be thinking on the first level in this hand, when we actually have a medium strength hand we should either 1). bet really small and force our opponent to call getting >1,000,000:1 pot odds or 2). make a close to PSB bet when we don't think our opponent will almost always fold a weaker hand. We don't have close to 100% fold equity considering there is no implied threat of bets on later streets, and our range does include some air (i.e. K-4s).

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

unless you think he will be thinking another level up?

Nah, I was thinking he'd be on the 1st level tbh.


I don't actually know about the skill/level of this type of reg - I play on a eurofish site.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

ISF: Surely if we check it protects our bluffs better from a game theory perspective?

Huh? Explain?

We'' if we have the ace and we bet and it's -EV then we lose $, what do we gain? Only positive thing is maybe we get a bit more value on our full houses in the same spot.

On the other hand if we check then we save the EV and it adds weight to the times we bluff in this spot, hence pushing up our overall EV of all our balanced range. Checking balances our range in a more +EV way aswell as saving us immediate EV from this hand in a vaccum.

lol that made 0 sense.

Anyways, for the results oriented. I bet 100, he shoved for 34 more, i called. He showed AK and won.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

So lets say given a perfect calculation we come to the conclusion that a bet in a vacuum is just slightly -EV. Do we still bet because of game theory?

we dont play in a vacuum

this is a bet

That's my question, so the non vacuum concepts, which is assume is mostly game theory, makes up for sub par value right?

at lower stakes, where there's a bazillion players, do you think it's close enough to playing in a vacuum?
i'd just bet $40 unless my image is more aggressive...i do get the "balancing bluffs thing" but doubt that's worth it here.

i like the check call to gain value on bluffs. I don't think you can fold here though.