Call allin with jacks on all under flop?

I just got on table, no reads on villain. Should i laydown here, also should i have 4bet pf?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($74.15)
SB ($141.50)
BB ($109.55)
Hero ($99)
MP ($261.30)
CO ($72.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, J.
Hero raises to $3.5, MP raises to $12, 4 folds, Hero calls $8.50.

Flop: ($25.50) 6, 2, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $18, MP raises to $249.3 (All-In), Hero???

I think you played it fine. Don't 4-bet it preflop unless you have a reason to think you should.

Fold

Board: 6c 2c 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.408% 48.05% 01.36% 30919 875.00 { 22+, AcKc }
Hand 1: 50.592% 49.23% 01.36% 31681 875.00 { JhJs }

Thats a very optimistic range imo.

Looks like either overcards + draw trying to scare you off or AA/KK trying to look like theyre trying to scare you off. One of those cases where either youre being levelled or you arent, and you lose both ways.

foldski.

In this situation I'd be forced to think about the decision with KK, anything else doesnt require that much thought.

My new theorem: an overbet on the river is very often the nuts, an overbet before the river is very often a (semi-)bluff.

Pelion, you realise that with that range we should insta-call, right? We're calling 69 into what will be a 199,50 pot, we need to win 34.5% of the time to break even.

We really need a PokerStove-like tool where you can input the likeliness of opponent having a certain hand/range. In this case, our equity on the call if he has AcKc is {0.45*199.5 = 89.80}. Our equity if he has QQ+ is {0.09*199.5=17.95}.

To calculate how often he must be semi-bluffing for the call to be break-even, we solve the equation
89.80x + 17.95(1-x) = 69
x = 0.71

So if he's on AcKc 71% of the time then we're breaking even on the call.

I tried to do some math on how the BEP changes when he's sometimes got a hand we crush ie TT, but solving equations with three unknowns isn't excactly my strong point (help us out, swiggidy?).

As an example though, here's what happens if he's got TT 5% of the time:
89.8x + 17.95(0.95-x) + 0.05*176.75 = 69
x = 0.40
meaning that if he's got TT 5% of the time he only needs to have AcKc 40% of the time for us to break even.

I don't think this is as easy a fold as people make it out, and keeping with my thought that the flop overbet more often being a bluff or draw I think I make the call.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Pelion, you realise that with that range we should insta-call, right?

Do you actually think he has that range? I dont think its close to that. My point was that even if hes pushing stuff noone will push then we are only 50/50.

Its far more likely that its something like TT+, Overcards + FD with the odd low pair thrown in.

BUT even then I think its AA/KK/AKs alot more often than QQ/JJ/TT.

Also you can weight the percentages somewhat.

e.g. if we assume he pushes AA/KK/AcKc every time here but QQ/JJ/TT only half the time then we are in bad shape.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.835% 18.46% 03.37% 3290 601.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 78.165% 74.79% 03.37% 13328 601.00 { KK+, QcQh, QhQs, JcJd, TcTh, ThTs, AcKc }

People seem to always want to put the guy that pushes on a flush draw to justify a heroic call. Even if he does your equity isn't all that great against a FD and an over. If he has two overs or an over and a gutshot to go with the FD it's considerably worse but still close. When you start adding in other hands to his range like the occasional funky two pair or over pairs which have you crushed then it becomes a pretty easy fold.


This hand I played last night is very similar and illustrates the same point.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP3 ($329)
CO ($142)
Hero ($398)
SB ($363.90)
BB ($462.20)
UTG ($505.50)
UTG+1 ($631.90)
MP1 ($66.60)
MP2 ($379.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, 8.
UTG calls $4, 5 folds, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, UTG calls $14.

Flop: ($42) 4, 8, T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $34, UTG raises to $84, Hero raises to $380, UTG calls $296.

Turn: ($802) K (2 players)

River: ($802) 6 (2 players)

Final Pot: $802

Results in below:
UTG has Js Jc (one pair, jacks).
Hero has Tc 8h (two pair, tens and eights).
Outcome: Hero wins $802.


Here though we have the benefit of actually knowing my exact range and you can see how poorly his hand plays against it. This is also somewhat skewed in his favor since I'm actually sometimes just calling instead of pushing with the lower AdXd hands. My range is also probably wider than most MSNL FR players making a call even worse against a random villain.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.296% 32.24% 00.05% 10853 18.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 67.704% 67.65% 00.05% 22771 18.00 { AcAd, AdAh, TT, 88, 44, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad3d, Ad2d, Jd9d, T8s, 9d7d, 9d6d, 6d5d, T8o }

Originally Posted by Galapogos

Don't 4-bet it preflop unless you have a reason to think you should.

you just solved everything

"dont _ unless you have a reason to think you should."

yeah i fold, but i don't lead the flop. This isn't the place to 4-bet either.