Calling on the draw...

I think I have this all wrong.


Hypothetical:
100NL game:
We have A6 on the button and we raise 4x to $4. BB calls. So there is $9 in the pot (just assume the .50 SB got raked)

Flop is xyz villain leads out for about $7 into the $9 pot. For sake of argument, we now have to hit our club to win. The total pot is $16 and we have to call $7, and we do so. pot is now $23.

On the turn we miss. Villain bets half pot - $12. Pot is now $35. We're getting 3:1 to see the river on about ~ 4.5:1 shot. This call is -EV..

How much money do we need to get in on a river to pull a +EV situation with our flush draw?

Originally Posted by euphoricism

On the turn we miss. Villain bets half pot - $12. Pot is now $35. We're getting 3:1 to see the river on about ~ 4.5:1 shot. This call is -EV..

How much money do we need to get in on a river to pull a +EV situation with our flush draw?

For the turn call to be +EV you need to win $12 * 4.5 = $54 (not including the money you put in yourself on turn and river) when you hit. There's $35 in the pot, so to make the call profitable you need to get villain to put in another $19 on the river when you hit.

Getting an obvious flush draw payed after it hits on the river is tough. Having someone pay $19 into a $47 pot is not impossible but I don't think you'll get it enough to make it count. How many times do you run this line?? Call, call, hit and bet. Not something you would pay out so how can you expect them too? I think you need more outs, Villian betting under and getting odds, or you need an AGGRO that will bluff at the completed draw.

i think this is more villain dependent than anything else.

i think this thread is a perfect example of why you should play our draws agressively.
FE can easily turn -ev situations into +EV over the course of a hand.
raising flop or turn makes your implied odds bigger if he calls which helps make it more +EV also.

Originally Posted by c-luvin

i think this thread is a perfect example of why you should play our draws agressively.
FE can easily turn -ev situations into +EV over the course of a hand.
raising flop or turn makes your implied odds bigger if he calls which helps make it more +EV also.

This is kinda what I was getting at. Check/Calling down with flush draws is really a tough way to make a living.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

Originally Posted by c-luvin

i think this thread is a perfect example of why you should play our draws agressively.
FE can easily turn -ev situations into +EV over the course of a hand.
raising flop or turn makes your implied odds bigger if he calls which helps make it more +EV also.

This is kinda what I was getting at. Check/Calling down with flush draws is really a tough way to make a living.

I think flat calling with draws is ok if you float in position often. Flat calling isn't always bad. It forces villain to decide what you're calling with, and makes him double barrel pretty often. Also, you can rep a lot of turn cards if you flat call when you float and also flat call with your draws.

Originally Posted by c-luvin

i think this thread is a perfect example of why you should play our draws agressively.
FE can easily turn -ev situations into +EV over the course of a hand.
raising flop or turn makes your implied odds bigger if he calls which helps make it more +EV also.

i agree with biggie