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Calling for value with overpairs
After a chat with a fellow FTR'er, I decided to post this hand. I think its a common situation that I struggle with, and I think that many others might struggle with it too.
Villain is a TAG, 17/15/5.6 no other reads (sorry Jyms).
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Hero ($49.25)
Button ($18.35)
SB ($59.55)
BB ($61.60)
UTG ($82.65)
Preflop: Hero is MP with J , J .
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB raises to $7
At this point, villain RR a lead from the UTG. I'm running 16/13/4 and have been 3-betting light from the blinds, but other than that I think I seem like a solid player. I put villain on JJ-AA/AK/AQs, STD reraising range from a TAG. Throw in SCs once in a while, but by and large he has a strong range. My hand is strong against his range and can play postflop, so I call.
Hero calls $5.
Flop: ($14.25) 3 , 5 , 2 (2 players)
BB bets $7.5
Villain leads for 1/2 pot. This could be a c-bet, but could also be a real hand trying to keep the pot under control. Villain c-bets probably 80% time he misses, and 95% of the time when he has a high PP. Therefore I call and "reevaluate" on the turn (the quotes because I don't have a solid understanding of this).
Hero calls $7.50.
Turn: ($29.25) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero folds.
W/o a read, I have to assume that villain has a hand most of the time, so I fold this almost 100% of the time. However, lets assume that the turn is a brick instead.
Turn: ($29.25) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $15
Again, w/o a read, I have to assume villain has a hand. I say I fold this 80% of the time, and 20% of the time I call, reflecting on a possible 2-barreling scheme for the villain.
Hero folds.
However, what is the best play if villain doesn't bet again? He might have a high overpair hoping to induce a bluff and c/r, or might have had nothing at all in the first place. In either case, I think if he checks the best play is to check behind, and call 90% of river bets to catch bluffs and get value from TT/99.
So, that was my attempt and understanding this hand. Please correct me if any of this analysis is wrong.
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