Can I assume he turned his draw?

Sorry I'm flooding the place, having a bad day.. again.
No read. Can I assume he turned his draw?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($197)
SB ($201.06)
BB ($428.52)
UTG ($200)
MP ($490.24)
CO ($62.07)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, T. SB posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, CO calls $2, Hero raises to $9, SB (poster) calls $8, BB calls $7, CO calls $7.

Flop: ($36) 2, 8, T (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2, CO folds, Hero raises to $30, SB folds, BB calls $28.

Turn: ($96) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($96) J (2 players)
BB bets $85, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $181

I'd say you played this one very well. I'm not worried as much about a straight as I am some two pair combo or maybe a set. Board has a few straight draws on it but other than that it's pretty dry. 97 beats us and so does J9, so any draw has us here. TJ is a likely hand too. This is a standard fold here, but well played, sorry about your bad day.

Well played

Am I the only one who thinks this is kind of weak/tight? I'd bet/fold the turn and pray for a check/check river

I play it the same, there are way too many potential draws that hit on the river (or turn) and its a PSB, easy fold imo.

I bet the turn and fold to a re-raise.

I think JT is very likely. Look you know the min bet spells weakness on the flop, it almost always does. Bet the turn hard, fold to a raise.

I bet a little less on the flop (24$) and 1/2 pot the turn. Fold to a raise obv.

As played, river is an easy fold. Every straight draw completed, and his minbet/call indicates that too.

id bet on the turn and consider how opp then plays the river.
I hate playing the hand like this it looks so weak/tight. Same for the other hand you posted.

I don't mind your line, its fine

(without a read)
Another line as someone mentioned is a little less on the flop. 1/2 pot on turn. Check behind on river. (or call a smallish bet) Fold to raise or any BIG bets.

This is a prime example of a pot control hand. You have an OK hand, if this guy is a Loose Lag I may bet flop and turn a little harder, against a TAG I would take one of the lines above.

Don't take the same approach each time, vary it some.

Here are my reasons for not betting the turn:

When he minbet the flop that screams to me "I'M ON A DRAW!!"
Of course I raise and he calls.
What draws could he have? 79/J9

Now when the comes a 6 one of this possible draws has completed and the other hasn't.

By my logic, if he had J9 he would have minbet again to try and stop me raising because he wants to see the river. But he doesn't, he checks.

So what does the check mean? Slowplaying is another huge trait of the fish, he want's to get tricky with me.

So when I see his check, I decide he has hit his draw and I am not putting any more money into this pot.

Overly analysed?

what about all of the times you let them draw out for free? What if hes on J9 or middle pair, or TPWK. After considering the full range of villian I bet the turn.

I'm putting him on speciffically 79.

so a minbet automatically means OESD? Ive seen everything from bottom pair to top set at $100NL 6max.

Your read might be spot on and you may have lost the min here... but I still don't like your turn check. Here's why.

1. At 200 NL so many ppl can't get away from their second pair, TPWK on the flop but will let it go to continued agression. Thus the second barrel can be very effective. And the fact that he called your massive reraise really doesn't mean much to me. Sure it's likely a draw, but the turn only fills up one draw, and two precise cards. I can't imagine any of our reads *should* be that accurate. Also IMO j9 is more likely here than 79.

Speaking of reads, should we be putting Villain on a specific hand here? I always thought it was better to establish a range of possible hands and decide how often of the time that range has me beat, and dictate my call/bet based on that.

2. By checking the turn you're opening yourself up to be bluffed off of any river card. It's also a sign of weakness that you don't follow up your reraises with a strong c-bet. If you wanted to exercise pot control, why did you make a pot sized reraise on the flop?

All that being said I think your fold here was a good one. I just think you might have overanalyzed a bit...plus i think it's good for metagame to follow up your reraise with a strong second barrel.

bet the turn, you have position to analyse the river play.

I think you want to go either check turn, call river (unless villian never bluffs), or

bet turn, fold river (check behind).

Originally Posted by Ravageur

1. At 200 NL so many ppl can't get away from their second pair, TPWK on the flop but will let it go to continued agression. Thus the second barrel can be very effective.

This isn't a reason. If his hand is TPWK then I don't want him to fold.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

Sure it's likely a draw, but the turn only fills up one draw,

Out of a possible 2. He has hit 50% of the time, assuming he has a draw.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

I can't imagine any of our reads *should* be that accurate.

OK, this is pretty much what I was asking.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

Speaking of reads, should we be putting Villain on a specific hand here? I always thought it was better to establish a range of possible hands and decide how often of the time that range has me beat, and dictate my call/bet based on that.

Thats what I did. I gave him a range of two possible hands on the flop, and one on the turn.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

If you wanted to exercise pot control, why did you make a pot sized reraise on the flop?

I wasn't trying to exercise pot control. It was not putting money in the pot when I'm beat control.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

All that being said I think your fold here was a good one. I just think you might have overanalyzed a bit...plus i think it's good for metagame to follow up your reraise with a strong second barrel.

Once again, not if you think your opponent has you crushed.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

When he minbet the flop that screams to me "I'M ON A DRAW!!"

I dunno, I've seen fish do this minbet bs with all sorts of crap including middle and bottom pair. I bet the turn here for value, because I expect to have the best hand a lot of the time. Also, you shouldn't try to analyze too deeply the fish's betting patterns, b/c often there is no logic behind it, so you will just end up confusing yourself and consequently not getting maximum value when you have the best hand.

if you dont bet turn you must call river

Originally Posted by gabe

if you dont bet turn you must call river

In general I would agree, but given this board and the fact that he called a flop raise in a multiway pot makes it pretty likely he has something on that board, either some kind of straight draw or a made hand. By the river we don't beat any straight draws, nor do we beat any made hands on that board. He isn't betting a worse hand like that for sure like T9, just wouldn't make any sense. Given the size of his river bet, calling here would be spewage. We aren't good often enough to call. An argument can be made for betting the turn, and I would do this if the pot was HU, but I'd me more inclined to check behind if it started out 4-way.

Originally Posted by aislephive

Originally Posted by gabe

if you dont bet turn you must call river

In general I would agree, but given this board and the fact that he called a flop raise in a multiway pot makes it pretty likely he has something on that board, either some kind of straight draw or a made hand. By the river we don't beat any straight draws, nor do we beat any made hands on that board. He isn't betting a worse hand like that for sure like T9, just wouldn't make any sense. Given the size of his river bet, calling here would be spewage. We aren't good often enough to call. An argument can be made for betting the turn, and I would do this if the pot was HU, but I'd me more inclined to check behind if it started out 4-way.

Yes

yes x3