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Can I lay this down here and if so why if not why?

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  1. #1
    spino1i's Avatar
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    Default Can I lay this down here and if so why if not why?

    No reads on opps..

    ***** Hand History for Game 2333627985 *****
    $200 NL Hold'em - Saturday, July 09, 01:11:12 EDT 2005
    Table Table 54828 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money)
    Seat 2 is the button
    Total number of players : 6
    Seat 1: hnorthrup ( $325.15 )
    Seat 3: ScoutyD ( $111.9 )
    Seat 5: gizmo62 ( $254.6 )
    Seat 6: fitzroy ( $264.55 )
    Seat 4: EvilEcstasy_ ( $230.35 )
    Seat 2: RJ5683 ( $37 )
    ScoutyD posts small blind [$1].
    EvilEcstasy_ posts big blind [$2].
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to EvilEcstasy_ [ 6d As ]
    >You have options at Table 55661 (6 max) (No DP) Table!.
    gizmo62 calls [$2].
    fitzroy calls [$2].
    hnorthrup calls [$2].
    RJ5683 calls [$2].
    ScoutyD calls [$1].
    EvilEcstasy_ checks.
    ** Dealing Flop ** [ Ah, 6h, 3d ]
    ScoutyD checks.
    EvilEcstasy_ bets [$6].
    gizmo62 calls [$6].
    >You have options at Table 55661 (6 max) (No DP) Table!.
    fitzroy raises [$25].
    hnorthrup folds.
    RJ5683 folds.
    ScoutyD calls [$25].
    >You have options at Table 55661 (6 max) (No DP) Table!.
    EvilEcstasy_ raises [$49].
    gizmo62 folds.
    fitzroy is all-In [$237.55]
    ScoutyD is all-In [$84.9]
    EvilEcstasy_ ???
    BR now: $106900
    Playing now: $10/10/20 - $20/40 NL live, $10/20 NL full ring online, $10/20 NL 6-max online, $20/40 FL 6-max online, $100/200 FL live
    Goal: $125000 for $25/50 NL live
  2. #2
    k8s's Avatar
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    Fold. Fitzroy has a set 99% of the time here.
  3. #3
    spino1i's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by k8s
    Fold. Fitzroy has a set 99% of the time here.
    what makes you so sure? Can you explain reasoning behind this read?
    BR now: $106900
    Playing now: $10/10/20 - $20/40 NL live, $10/20 NL full ring online, $10/20 NL 6-max online, $20/40 FL 6-max online, $100/200 FL live
    Goal: $125000 for $25/50 NL live
  4. #4
    k8s's Avatar
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    What hands will push here possibly, being lenient: A3, A6, AA, 33, 66.

    AA was not raised preflop so it's highly unlikely. Fitzroy probably wouldn't call A3 or A6 UTG+1 either. And if the flop went raise-raise-raise- would you raise all in with 2 pair? On the unlikely chance it is 2 pair, A6 will be more common and you're splitting, and only beating A3. Now look at 33 and 66. He limped, like 33 and 66 would. Then he went mad on the flop. You're beating 1 hand, splitting 1, and losing 3. Plus the way he played looks like a pocket pair that hit a set.
  5. #5
    spino1i's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by k8s
    What hands will push here possibly, being lenient: A3, A6, AA, 33, 66.

    AA was not raised preflop so it's highly unlikely. Fitzroy probably wouldn't call A3 or A6 UTG+1 either. And if the flop went raise-raise-raise- would you raise all in with 2 pair? On the unlikely chance it is 2 pair, A6 will be more common and you're splitting, and only beating A3. Now look at 33 and 66. He limped, like 33 and 66 would. Then he went mad on the flop. You're beating 1 hand, splitting 1, and losing 3. Plus the way he played looks like a pocket pair that hit a set.
    ty.. nice analysis btw.. yse he did have a set of 3s
    BR now: $106900
    Playing now: $10/10/20 - $20/40 NL live, $10/20 NL full ring online, $10/20 NL 6-max online, $20/40 FL 6-max online, $100/200 FL live
    Goal: $125000 for $25/50 NL live

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