Check my line (bluff)

Villain is 30/12 and holds QQ+ here 99% of the time.

My image is that I'm a nit, who hasn't been getting paid with sets the past 3 weeks when taking similar lines against similar players


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($100)
UTG ($202.70)
MP ($191.55)
Button ($110.80)
Hero ($101.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9.
UTG raises to $4, MP calls $4, Button calls $4, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($17) 7, 8, 7 (4 players)
Hero bets $11, UTG raises to $22, MP folds, Button folds, Hero raises to $44, UTG thinks, then calls $22.

Turn: ($105) 2 (2 players)
Hero pushes $52

Does villain fold his overpair to a guy like me getting 3-1 on a turn call enough that i can make this bluff profitably? The more I think about it the more I think about it he calls enough here; and I was hoping he'd just fold to the flop reraise.

I really don't think he's gonna fold often enough to make this profitable.

id cry but wouldnt fold against most

u didn't set up the turn very well. I see what you're trying to do but i don't think he's gonna fold.

Hmmm, it's tough giving a nit in the SB credit for having a 7x type hand and flopping trips here. But there are quite a few people in the pot so he has to consider someone could have gotten a piece of something. Still though, I don't really like making these plays unless I know this guy is capable of folding overpairs.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

u didn't set up the turn very well. I see what you're trying to do but i don't think he's gonna fold.

I see that too, folding would obv be the best play on the flop. I think reraising him less amount on the flop, say back up to 35ish or so would make for a more uncallable turn bet.

I didn't actually push FWIW on the turn, but I thought I should have.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

I didn't actually push FWIW on the turn, but I thought I should have.

Sometimes you should follow-through on a bluff, otherwise you justify loose calls of the first part of your sequence.

If you're a nit, the stack-a-donk line might be a better bluff here. I don't hate this though, knowing you didn't push the turn.

It's a very tough decision to be in (as the preflop raiser). The board is dry and it's clear what his hand is. Since the board is so dry, and is hand is so clear, wouldn't you usually go for a c/r here with 7x/88? Then again, I've been stacked by 7x with QQ+ in this position before.

Originally Posted by yorib

It's a very tough decision to be in (as the preflop raiser). The board is dry and it's clear what his hand is. Since the board is so dry, and is hand is so clear, wouldn't you usually go for a c/r here with 7x/88? Then again, I've been stacked by 7x with QQ+ in this position before.

This also crossed my mind. However, if I just flat call and check turn villain checks here a majority of the time then calls any bet on river. Thus, leading again for 2/3 pot on turn may get villain to fold as it would be a $40 bet into a $60 pot and he has to assume I want to play for stacks. The line I took might be a good one to take tho if I actually had the monster....