Did he catch his set on the flop or turn? Obvious fold?

PokerStars Game #5261851936: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2006/06/15 - 15:41:39 (ET)
Table 'Arago' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: ticktack26 ($21.20 in chips)
Seat 2: tank1951 ($20.75 in chips)
Seat 3: Ant1718 ($18.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Tahoe1234 ($27.10 in chips)
Seat 5: soldatti ($27.10 in chips)
Seat 6: johnnyBuz ($26.40 in chips)
ticktack26: posts small blind $0.10
tank1951: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to johnnyBuz [Kh Qc]
Ant1718: folds
Ant1718 leaves the table
tank1951 said, "vn"
Tahoe1234: folds
soldatti: folds
johnnyBuz: raises $0.50 to $0.75
ticktack26: folds
tank1951: calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [Qs 4c 3d]
tank1951: checks
johnnyBuz: bets $1
tank1951: calls $1
*** TURN *** [Qs 4c 3d] [9c]
tank1951: checks
johnnyBuz: bets $2.25
tank1951: raises $2.25 to $4.50
johnnyBuz: calls $2.25
*** RIVER *** [Qs 4c 3d 9c] [2c]
tank1951: bets $5.50
johnnyBuz said, "nice set"
johnnyBuz: folds

Why'd you call the turn and then fold the river?

Just fold the turn against his obvious set.

a leak in my play

i took the past few weeks off just to completely get away from poker. just picked up HOHv1, and noticed a third volume just came out. has anyone got around to reading that yet?

I'd check the poker reading group thingy forum

Yeah with TP hands like this just always fold if you get raised at all. Unless you see a person do something crazy which means you shouldn't fold, like raise with bottom pair.

Not getting stacked like this with AK is possibly one of the greatest things you'll ever learn in holdem.

I'm curious why you put him on a set so quickly. I'll raise and c-bet quite a bit when short-handed, especially from the button. If you don't, then he probably believes that you have a Q, and you should fold. But up to the raise on the turn, I'd play the same way with AK, just about any pocket pair, and maybe a few others. My first guess is that he doesn't believe you have the queen.
Would this be a good time for a blocking bet on the river? As is, I'd probably call the river bet. Without knowing more about how you and villian have been playing, I think you're ahead.

hearing conflicting views like this makes it even tougher. i'de say 50% of the time, i used to call bets like this. now i'm really trying to decide before the bet if i think i'm behind or not.

if he didn't think i had the queen, i really find it hard to believe he would reraise me on the turn like that and then lead out. his check/call on the flop and check/raise on the turn really make me think something is up.

i think he thinks if he checked the river, i would possibly just check it as well. and if he really had the best hand, which i think he did, he would want to get some value out of it and induce a call by me.

he told me after the hand he "had a lucky river and hit his flush" which i immediately called him out on BS. no way he would have played a flush/draw like that.

at worst, i think he has tptk here, so either way, i don't think i have a winning hand. not too likely he would play TT/JJ like that. so we can all be pretty confident i'm behind here correct?

Your reasoning sounds good, it may be better than mine. I think it really depends on what kind of read you think your opponent has on you. If he thinks you're just trying to steal the blinds, then TPGK is a great hand.
If I'm on the button, short-handed, and everyone folds to me, I'll raise with a very wide range of hands. With only one caller who checks to me on the flop, I'll c-bet a lot. Do you play similar? If so, then villian could be putting you on a VERY wide range on hands here, and you can't assume that he knows you have TPGK. The min-raise tells me to slow down, but not that we're dead. The bet on the river is small enough to call, so I do.

Checking behind on the turn, with the intention of calling a reasonable bet on the river, might be a good line too.

But I'm not 100% confident on my advice here, so hopefully some others will chime in.

If he didn't believe you had a Q he would have raised the flop or folded the turn when you bet again. Given an average player I would say its 80% likely he has a better hand then you on the turn.

My default play in spots like this is to check the turn. It gets a wide range to call your river value bet or makes air take a stab at the pot. And you'll lose a bet to a set anyway. You should bet if the flop was draw heavy of course.

I don't see a point in calling the turn if you're just going to fold the river. If you put him on a better Queen, or a set, then just fold.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

My default play in spots like this is to check the turn. It gets a wide range to call your river value bet or makes air take a stab at the pot. And you'll lose a bet to a set anyway. You should bet if the flop was draw heavy of course.

I think at 25NL you loose too much value from Ax when you do this.

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

My default play in spots like this is to check the turn. It gets a wide range to call your river value bet or makes air take a stab at the pot. And you'll lose a bet to a set anyway. You should bet if the flop was draw heavy of course.

I think at 25NL you loose too much value from Ax when you do this.

Agreed. People won't call 3 barrels with mediocre hands at higher levels, so then is checking better.

Yep.