Do U really have to c/f this?

Villain is a nitty reg, does alot of bum huntery stuff and plays very straight forward.

I feel the relative position between us pre and the amount of people to the flop strengthens his flop calling range significantly to 1010-aa and 7s full , I'm faily sure he would flat aa and specifically kk pre in this spot a decent % of the time and would fold ak to the c bet. Obviously the turns a really meh card as he'll likely fold qq-1010, when he calls I'm somewhat worried. River now means we lose to jj as well, so I check...




Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1082)
SB ($407.25)
Hero (BB) ($1000)
UTG ($1169)
MP ($2205.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, 2
Hero bets $30, UTG+1 calls $30, CO calls $30, 1 fold, BB calls $20


Flop: ($125) 2, 7, 2 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $80, UTG+1 calls $80, 2 folds


Turn: ($285) K (2 players)
Hero bets $190, UTG+1 calls $190


River: ($665) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $450,

The only problem I see in folding here is that he would bet aa for value but I do have a blocker to that hand, and that's really the only value hand I beat.

In the heat of the moment, I'd pay him off. That said, the fold makes a lot of sense.

i def like bet bet bet, and i think he can have AK

now that u checked, fml i prob call ?

dont hate a fold though surprisingly

Originally Posted by sauce123

i def like bet bet bet, and i think he can have AK

now that u checked, fml i prob call ?

dont hate a fold though surprisingly

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Any stats on villain? 3bet stats? have you seen him flat huge utg+1 vs utg before?

I feel like in game I'm probably always value betting this river. Once we check, i can definitely see the merit to c/f. Though I'm pretty sure I'm not capable of it here.

At first this looked like a really easy bet but on second thought I kinda like a c/f, esp with reads given and because you think he folds AK on the flop. I def think c/c is your worst river line btw.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Any stats on villain? 3bet stats? have you seen him flat huge utg+1 vs utg before?

I feel like in game I'm probably always value betting this river. Once we check, i can definitely see the merit to c/f. Though I'm pretty sure I'm not capable of it here.

villain plays 18/14, 3.05 af and has a 6 % 3 bet over a big sample. No I haven't seen him flat big before but he's competent enough to do so.

This is really simple, his range is 77, JJ, KK, AK. There are 3 combos of 77, 3 of JJ, 3 of KK, 3 of AA, 9 of AK. 9 you lose, 12 you win. Now the complicated part is a) we're not positive he'll have AK and b) it's possible he never has JJ. It's basically a toss up, especially if you want to c/f because now we're not debating whether this is better than c/cing.

I agree with P4's though, that c/c is def the worst possible line. So its prob best to either b/f or c/f.

Originally Posted by nutsinho

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