Do you suffer from CFDS?

Warning: Long and math involved.

So I suffer from completed flush draw syndrome.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($29.10)
Button ($47.25)
SB ($13.40)
BB ($8.05)
UTG ($26.05)
MP ($32.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 9.
1 fold, MP raises to $1, Hero calls $1, 3 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) J, 9, 4 (2 players)
MP bets $1.75, Hero raises to $4.25, MP calls $2.50.

Turn: ($10.85) 3 (2 players)
MP bets $7.75, Hero ???

Villian was 17/12/9 after 120 hands. Haven't seen him do anything out of line. I quickly tried to debate in my head if he was value betting a flush or semi-bluff block betting a pair that picked up a flush draw on the turn.

I think I've figured it out spending some time doing calcs. Let me know what you think.

Based on his preflop raising range, the hands I think he may play the flop and turn that way given his aggression would be flushes, pairs that picked up flush draw straight draws with a diamond. Comes to about 42 candidates.

42 hands | Equity | Equity x % Hands
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 flushes 23% 3.8%
3 combos JJ 2% .14%
6 combos 33-44 98% 14%
12 overpairs 78% 28.5%
with diamond
excl. JJ
14 flush draws 82% 27.3%
pairs with fd
straight draw
with diamond
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Equity against range 74%

So I am thinking this definitely calls for a push on my part or am I giving too much weight to hands that picked up turn flush draws? Looking back I should have raised it to $5+ on the flop. Too many tables going I guess.

Figuring out the math has definitely shown how weak/tight I am and I shouldn't have been worried about that bet.

Look forward to range/calc comments.

Raise more on flop, shove turn

I suffer from "I have a set in a raised pot against someone representing a range that I have crushed." syndrome

Allin

i think its player dependent. aggression of 9 makes me lean toward a shove.

even if its not 9... i still think a shove is best in the long run. #1 there is a good enough chance you are ahead. #2. you have outs vs a flush. #3. you don't learn as much by folding.

yeah he might have the flush and you lose a big pot. but in the long run you learn his type and you learn how he plays.... make a note and move on.

and i agree... make it like $6.35. make him decide to play AJsooted or AQsooted for stacks right there.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

I suffer from "I have a set in a raised pot against someone representing a range that I have crushed." syndrome

Allin

Yes, thinking about ranges and math has been good therapy and will helpful morph my condition into one like yours.

1. Your maths are somewhat screwy.

2. RAISE THE FREAKING FLOP. LIKE RAISE IT. THIS IS WAY MORE IMPORTANT THAN WHAT YOU DO ON THIS TURN.

3. Back to point 1, how you give 33 the same weight (as in likelihood that he'd play it that way) as a made flush is beyond me.

4. bump it up to something stupid like $8.10 on the flop. Hope he shoves his QQ or flush draw or combo draw then wait about 6 or 8 seconds, call, hope he misses, and this (i.e. the half slow roll) will surely put him on life tilt. $$$$$$$$$$

5. blame any delays regarding #4 on playing lots of tables. hope that he's not in the state of mind to mention that most logical people tend to pay extra attention when they hit sets in big pots.

also, i'd recommend spiking a 9 on the turn just for good measure.

Pot is big and you have a set, so go all-in. I think you're overthinking this a bit.