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Draw to the Nuts... JohnGotti Style.
There is 1 situation that has been bothering me more than most over the past couple of weeks, partly because I've run badly when it's happened but mainly because all options seem bad on a theoretical level.
I raise with Ax (offsuit - this is important to the discussion) and a tight player calls in position. Flop comes monotone giving me nut flush draw. I c-bet and face aggression from the nit in position.
There are 2 huge and obvious problems with this situation :
1 - The nit almost definitely has all 1-pair hands beaten, so my over (Ace usually) isn't live. I am drawing to 9 outs at best.
2 - If I hit my 18% draw after calling the flop 3-bet, I will have an extremely tough time getting paid off. Who hasn't folded a set/good 2 pair while puking on a 4-flush board?
This is obviously easier vs an aggro postflop, who could presumably be playing back at me with a weaker draw or with air. But even if the person playing back at you is aggro, what line do you like and why?
I'm wondering if the most +ev solution isn't to just to fold the nut draw. But that just seems soooooo weak.
Thoughts?
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