Expected value of calling with Axs

I'm working on an analysis under what circumstances a call with Axs hands is/can be profitable.

Of course lots of assumptions have to be made, and I'm not sure this will lead to something usable....but generally these extended analysis lead to insight in a number of things anyway...and I have too much time at work.

Assume small stakes, standard, predictive, non-extreme villain.
100bbs, 6max, villains raises, hero calls in position (for now), heads up to the flop.

If someone has an insight or opinion on the following situation, I would gladly hear them/comment on them, and it would help me a lot in my analysis:

A rough indication of our EV when we have the NFD on the flop.
A rough indication would be if it's +EV or -EV, and possibly a range of how much (maybe something like 0-3BB, 3-6BB, 7-10BB, etc.). I think it has to be related to the wideness of villains PFR.

I don't like doing this at all. I don't have time to dive into analysis today, but my general feeling is that people watch for and fear flush draws more than straights, and the hand has little value other than that. You end up dominated against stronger aces too often to make it profitable playing for top pair; so you're just looking for the outside possibility of a flush, which usually ends up being a draw, which means you chase and miss - or hit and are rewarded with a fold. It's generally a sucky situation with those hands. I'd much rather play suited connectors, even though your flush draws with those aren't to the nuts.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

and the hand has little value other than that.

Not necessarily true as the A can be quite important when we're semibluffing gutshots+A or NFD.
Getting 2 streets of value from hands like JJ/QQ/KK when we have position and their hand is 2nd pair is not uncommon at my stakes.
2 pair should bring us money as well as trips and the nut flush.
Of course those do not happen that often, but they're big pot hands.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

You end up dominated against stronger aces too often to make it profitable playing for top pair

This is also not necessarily true as long as you don't take your TP too far and/or villain is double barreling A high flops often.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

so you're just looking for the outside possibility of a flush, which usually ends up being a draw, which means you chase and miss - or hit and are rewarded with a fold.

That's a pretty negative way to look at playing a NFD imo. I think against most villains having the NFD on the flop in position is a +EV situation from there on, long term.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

I'd much rather play suited connectors, even though your flush draws with those aren't to the nuts.

This is the general consensus, and that's all I really know about it. Yes they flop a SD besides the FD (compared to Axs) about 9,6% of times, but there are so many other things to compare, some of which I am trying to explore now.

Hmm..subject not interesting enough?

I personally find myself getting valuebluffed a bit too often w/ AXs

3 bet Axs, problem solved.