Exploitability

Toughest spot from a long session today.

Villain is a straightforward, winning reg.

We haven't had any crazy history over a few K hands of play together up uptil a bunch of preflop spewing today (I 4-bet folded once where he claimed to have KQ, then he 5 bet shoved 22 and held over my AKs)

Eff stacks are 100bb's at nl500

I raise from CO w AJo, he calls from SB

Flop is

He checks, I think and bet 24 into 37, he quickly raises to 65.

I think for a long time and consider folding then I call with for BD FD

turn is an offsuit 5 he checks, I check quickly behind.

River is

board is now X

He thinks and checks, I bet 120ish into 160ish, he instashoves for 300 more...

Help.

personally i think thats how he would play if he had the Q9 but from what you say what do u think the odds are of him seeing the flop with Q9?

possible he has a PP and has the full house?

not likely but even possibly he has the AJ also.

i would be finding hard to call he going by what you saying.

but then what do i know i play micro stakes lol

-He's probably not c/r bluffing the flop that much especially since he can't have the nfd.
- it's a small jam, and FE seems slimmish to an online regular

But:

-you have a J.
- he could maybe possibly have a worse J since it seems profitable to shove KJ here.
- You have the top of your range so you're making a ridiuclously explotable bet if you fold.
- He has shown the ability to get his stack in light.

I mean if you have really never seen him river c/r in thousands of hands i'd lean towards a fold. But i probably call cause its the mega-top of your range

thx max.

u r good at online pokerz and I'm encouraged that your post mirrors my conflicted thought process during the hand.

The thing that really bothered me was "if I fold this hand, wtf do I call with?"

I agree with max but I ant to add that betting this flop is a pretty big mistake given that you had to think for a long time when he check/raises.

Also if you fold the river no one I play with will exploit that but lets not open that can of worms.

bet/call or check the river its as simple as that.

From villain's perspective, b/f this river doesn't come across as exploitable I don't think. Every single draw that you could have been b/c flop with, missed, so as far as he knows you can easily be b/f missed draws here and not AJ.

As for the hand in question, if the turn was a J and he c/bombed you I'd be much more likely to fold. The board is so draw heavy, that I wouldn't expect someone to get tricky here that often on turn by checking strength.

(side note: I know this particular villain very well, and I think he has you here a very high percentage of the time)

ya Irish I had check back vulnerable 1 pair hands in pos a few times in a row so I decided to "mix it up" by betting the flop... which lead me to elect the call after he CR me. Should've included this in OP.