Facing Heat with a big hand 200bb's deep vs loose-passive

Villain here is loose-passive (41/13/0.7). He called me down with AK unimproved on a drawy board vs my OESFD that blanked and won when I checked down the river.

He built his stack by coolering the table in a huge multi-way pot where he played a big draw passively and hit after calling AI preflop vs 2 villains.

As usual I don’t mind if this seems like an autofistpumpship. But I’m curious what he can have here 200bb’s deep, especially when I’m pretty sure he won’t get aggro with a hand like 56 or T9.

Oh and don't worry about commenting on preflop; I have my reasons.

$200 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, March 02, 16:55:19 ET 2008
Table Table 127937 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: VILLAIN ( $688.76 USD )
Seat 5: JoBlac ( $67.30 USD )
Seat 2: HERO ( $401 USD )
Seat 3: kelmomo ( $133.50 USD )
Seat 1: Poker_Flow_ ( $125.12 USD )
Seat 6: gord0nloet ( $200 USD )
VILLAIN posts small blind [$1 USD].
JoBlac posts big blind [$2 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO
gord0nloet folds.
Poker_Flow_ folds.
HERO raises [$7 USD]
kelmomo calls [$7 USD]
VILLAIN calls [$6 USD]
JoBlac raises [$10 USD]
HERO calls [$5 USD]
kelmomo calls [$5 USD]
VILLAIN calls [$5 USD]
** Dealing Flop **
VILLAIN checks.
JoBlac is all-In.
HERO raises [$110.60 USD]
kelmomo folds.
VILLAIN raises [$165.90 USD]
HERO…

I think this is a fold. Have you ever seen him play AA-QQ though?

Originally Posted by Massimo

I think this is a fold. Have you ever seen him play AA-QQ though?

nope

btw i hate poker fuck it f dsjkfl; sdj;klf jds;klaf j;

I would call because seriously I have trips in a raised pot.

Originally Posted by Deanglow

I would call because seriously I have trips in a raised pot.

Pretty much what I was thinking. I think he definitely could play JJ+ like this. The only thing that worries me is that some of these types would flat those hands. Tough spot really but I'm a station it'd probably call.

I'd call but I suck at this game.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

34,650 games 0.032 secs 1,082,812 games/sec

Board: 8h 8d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.188% 26.48% 12.71% 9176 4402.50 { Td8s }
Hand 1: 60.812% 48.11% 12.71% 16669 4402.50 { 77, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 84s+, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 86o+ }


---

approx. 660 in the pot, with approx 225 behind


he doesn't have to hardly ever be bluffing or show up with an overpair for a call to be correct!

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

30,690 games 0.005 secs 6,138,000 games/sec

Board: 8h 8d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.997% 22.42% 12.58% 6881 3859.50 { Td8s }
Hand 1: 65.003% 52.43% 12.58% 16090 3859.50 { 77, A8s, K8s, Q8s, J8s, T8s, 98s, 85s+, A8o, K8o, Q8o, J8o, T8o, 98o, 87o }


---


you would need almost exactly 34% equity to call, if my approximations for the pot size and stack size behind were accurate. This range is without 8-6o and 8-4s.

btw i forgot to mention that i assume villain is going all in, so i counted his stack as part of the pot size.

always nice when somebody tells u the math side of it is correct.

this is really a sick spot. when i first looked at it, i thought villain was the minre-raiser, so i was like, oh, get it in for sure. im certainly never happy when i dont have the nuts and a super super passive player is forcing me to make a decision for all my chips, but i think u dont have much of a choice 200bb deep. if u were deeper u could get away from it, but you've already invested too much and you are going to have equity vs every holding, regardless.

Originally Posted by Marshall28

but you've already invested too much and you are going to have equity vs every holding, regardless.

Which equity? If ur behind u have maximum 4 outs (3 tens and one 8 vs pocket 7's) and most likely 3 outs (tens) vs trips with a better kicker.
Or am i missing something?

Shouldnt QQ+ be in his range aswell?

Originally Posted by Andypandy

Originally Posted by Marshall28

but you've already invested too much and you are going to have equity vs every holding, regardless.

Which equity? If ur behind u have maximum 4 outs (3 tens and one 8 vs pocket 7's) and most likely 3 outs (tens) vs trips with a better kicker.
Or am i missing something?

... 3 outs is equity isnt it? ... lol then u add in all the dead money in the pot, then u add in the probability of other holdings he can have that you are beating ...

dont think you're missing anything ...

[quote="Andypandy"]

Originally Posted by Marshall28

and most likely 3 outs (tens) vs trips with a better kicker.
Or am i missing something?

A) You have more than 3 outs here. (3+3 split on turn and 3+6 split on river.)
B) He shows up with worse kicker sometimes. Ie: I don't know how like 98 is not in his range here.

Originally Posted by Dislexsik

Shouldnt QQ+ be in his range aswell?

Yes, and that is why I call this 100%. I think you guys are really underestimating how bad people play AA these days.

ok thx for replies i m done making retarded running bad posts for at least a week

villain shipped the cheddar with A8

please stop running bad kthx.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

ok thx for replies i m done making retarded running bad posts for at least a week

villain shipped the cheddar with A8

Fold flop.