Facing push..Is this close.. or auto fold?

Villain is at 25/14/2.2 over reasonably small sample, only about 200 hands...

Villain is on a few of my tables, and has probably noticed me raising quite a bit, and then folding to players pushing back over me, or raising over my raises.

I put villain on an over-pair, or over cards (AK). I don't see him pushing a set in this spot.

Is this a close call?.. auto-call? or fold?

(oh and yes I realize Im playing short in this hand, I had just lost the previous hand and didn't get a chance to top up before this hand started)


Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $116.75
UTG+1: $100
CO: $111.75
Button: $206.75
Hero: $66.75
BB: $96

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with
3 folds, Button raises to $3, Hero calls, BB folds.

Flop: ($7, 2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $4, Hero raises to $12, Button raises all-in $203.75, Hero ?? ($51.75 to call, with $82.75 in pot already)

I put villain's range at 44 and 66+. If this is the case, according to Pokerstove your equity is 35%. Though you did say you didn't think a set would push, I added it anyways because you never know. If you are adament on him not having a set, then you are still only at 36% equity for 88+. Your allin would be 63% of the pot. I believe this to be a fold. I'm not smart but thought I'd give it a shot anyways.

I think kmind's right on except the allin should be about 52/184 instead of 64% (gotta add hero's call to the pot size), so it's close but you are probably priced in to call.

btw, if you think he might raise a lead from you with garbage, it would've been better to lead then 3bet all in. or if he's weak/passive you could just check-call.

Yeah...knew I forgot something...thanks, benny.

Originally Posted by benny999

I think kmind's right on except the allin should be about 52/184 instead of 64% (gotta add hero's call to the pot size), so it's close but you are probably priced in to call.

When I said I had 51.75 to call in a 82.75 pot, the 82.75 actually included villains call, and villain's raise up to 51.75 (which is all that I can meet). So assuming that this is the case, am I no longer priced in to call? (51.75/134.5 = 0.38)

I was pretty sure that any 8,3 or 5 were safe outs for me (10 outs), so I figured I had about 40% chance of hitting, hence I was wondering how thin a call would be here..

Thanks for the help so far guys!

I fold.

don't check raise flop

calling or folding to the push is trivial

Originally Posted by nutsinho

don't check raise flop

calling or folding to the push is trivial

Why don't you c/r the flop?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by nutsinho

don't check raise flop

calling or folding to the push is trivial

Why don't you c/r the flop?

because its so obviouly a draw or weak hand. Would you c/r a set here? Answer: no.

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by nutsinho

don't check raise flop

calling or folding to the push is trivial

Why don't you c/r the flop?

because its so obviouly a draw or weak hand. Would you c/r a set here? Answer: no.

Hmm... am I missing something here? I think I would/might check raise a set here! Are you saying that we should lead a set, as opposed to check raising a set?

You're claiming that a check raise seems weak, whereas I would associate a check-raise out of position as a strong play ....

I'd appreciate a further explanation, since my logic is clearly the opposite of a few posters so far.

when i c/r the flop, I either have a) complete air, b) a very strong draw im happy to get all in with, or c) a very strong hand im happy to get all in with

I don't like doing it with 55 here because a) he's going to fold all worse hands and scarcely fold better hands, b) im creating a big pot out of position where the turn is probably going to bring a painful decision and c) if im ahead ill probably find out cheaply and if im not ill probably get to the river for a decent price and i may even have some implied odds

Edit: oops, i wrote part 2a backwards

Originally Posted by nutsinho

when i c/r the flop, I either have a) complete air, b) a very strong draw im happy to get all in with, or c) a very strong hand im happy to get all in with

I don't like doing it with 55 here because a) he's going to fold all better hands and scarcely fold worse hands, b) im creating a big pot out of position where the turn is probably going to bring a painful decision and c) if im ahead ill probably find out cheaply and if im not ill probably get to the river for a decent price and i may even have some implied odds

very good post imo.

Originally Posted by benny999

very good post imo.

The solution to these spots is not what to do when you get in them. It probably doesn't even matter much. It's how to get into them less often.

Originally Posted by benny999

Originally Posted by nutsinho

when i c/r the flop, I either have a) complete air, b) a very strong draw im happy to get all in with, or c) a very strong hand im happy to get all in with

I don't like doing it with 55 here because a) he's going to fold all better hands and scarcely fold worse hands, b) im creating a big pot out of position where the turn is probably going to bring a painful decision and c) if im ahead ill probably find out cheaply and if im not ill probably get to the river for a decent price and i may even have some implied odds

very good post imo.

I agree, very well explained nutsinho. I guess I often c/r flops to regain control of the betting, but in this case I'd probably be better off getting to showdown or the river as cheaply as possible.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by benny999

very good post imo.

The solution to these spots is not what to do when you get in them. It probably doesn't even matter much. It's how to get into them less often.

So how do we get into these spots less often? Leading the flop? so we can be the player that pushes, as opposed to villain?