Fire that third barrel?

Previous hand for context:

***** Hand History for Game 3638822546 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, February 28, 02:46:00 ET 2006
Table Fantasy (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: qluvv ( $189.83 )
Seat 5: romeoshark ( $29.40 )
Seat 6: GJF1216 ( $42.28 )
Seat 4: Evil_Ecstasy ( $73.50 )
Seat 3: orangegup ( $40.70 )
Evil_Ecstasy posts small blind [$0.50].
romeoshark posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Evil_Ecstasy [ Kc Ks ]
GJF1216 raises [$5].
qluvv folds.
orangegup folds.
Evil_Ecstasy is all-In [$73]
romeoshark is all-In [$28.40]
GJF1216 is all-In [$37.28]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, Qs, Ts ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8s ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2d ]
GJF1216 shows [ Ac, 8d ] a pair of eights.
Evil_Ecstasy shows [ Kc, Ks ] a pair of kings.
romeoshark shows [ Jc, Jh ] a pair of jacks.
Evil_Ecstasy wins $31.22 from side pot #2 with a pair of kings.
Evil_Ecstasy wins $25.76 from side pot #1 with a pair of kings.
Evil_Ecstasy wins $86.20 from the main pot with a pair of kings.

The hand to be discussed, which came right after the above hand (the villain was not involved in the above hand).

Villain is TAG, not much else known about him. I feel my table image is that of a tight player who bets only when he has the goods in part thanks to the previous hand. I put the villain on a pair and a straight draw, figuring with any stronger hand (i.e. two pair, a set, or a straight) he would have come over the top of me on the flop or turn.. Your play on the river?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB ($189.83)
BB ($40.70)
Hero ($143.18)
Button ($0)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, K. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
Hero raises to $2.5, SB (poster) calls $2, 1 fold.

Flop: ($6) 7, 9, T (3 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $5, SB calls $4.

Turn: ($16) 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12.

River: ($40) 2 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $30 ???

The $40 question is how often are you good when you check this behind?

With your image I think you would have heard about strong hands before the river, therefore its quite likely that villain is on a draw or marginal hand (doesnt sound like you have the super aggro img that makes ppl want to trap you). Given your description that villain is TAG i think betting the river here is a good idea, since there are lots of hands that beat you that can fold to a strong river bet.

If you assume he's a perfect player, there is only 1 hand that you beat that he calls the turn with. 8cXc, where X is not a 2, 3, 7, 9, or T. - probably Ac8c. That hand gives him 15-18 outs against a pair > 8. With fewer outs, he's made a mistake by calling unless he thinks you are bluffing.

I think you have to bet this river - because the only thing you beat is a Q-high or worse draw. You have to give him credit for an A-high flush draw. On the other hand, he's not folding a pair of Ts or Js - maybe even calls with 88.

Some people either don't pay attention or don't care what you did in the past hand or prior when they are staring down at their cards. Looks like he's on the flush or str8 draw but I've been called down by AJ in situations like these and just sat there aghast. I assume this is why you are posting this while mentioning your image?

Originally Posted by Fnord

The $40 question is how often are you good when you check this behind?

By checking, you win only when K high is the best hand, but by betting, you win whenever K high is the best hand, or when he folds a pair or ace high.

I'd probably make a smaller bet. He was probably on a draw, and if he has some sort of a made hand, it's most likely weak. There's no need to risk so much here for when you actually run into a decent hand.

Results: I bet 30$. After much contemplation villain folds, claiming he folded T, 8!
'I had 21 outs and I couldnt hit one! PartyPoker must be rigged! You were a gonner if I hit!' he says
'Good fold' I say!
And yes, at 100 NL 6-max they do begin to pay attention to previous hands.. this isnt the aquarium of 25 NL 6-max lol!