Flopped flush vs large stack.

No read. What is the best play, and how should the turn and river be played?

***** Hand History for Game 3668592477 *****
$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, March 03, 22:02:10 ET 2006
Table Reward (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 3: threeNickels ( $1088.33 )
Seat 5: fahfah ( $103.31 )
Seat 6: danielsaxton ( $700.95 )
Seat 2: cactus_jt ( $420.04 )
Seat 4: kerstins11 ( $396 )
kerstins11 posts small blind [$2].
>You have options at Beatrix (No DP) Table!.
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>You have options at Beatrix (No DP) Table!.
fahfah is sitting out.
danielsaxton posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to danielsaxton [ Th 2h ]
>You have options at Beatrix (No DP) Table!.
>You have options at Hideout (No DP) Table!.
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cactus_jt calls [$4].
threeNickels calls [$4].
kerstins11 folds.
>You have options at Hideout (No DP) Table!.
>You have options at Aolani Table!.
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danielsaxton checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5h, 7h, 6h ]
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danielsaxton bets [$12].
cactus_jt calls [$12].
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gensunasumus has joined the table.
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threeNickels raises [$50].
danielsaxton ???

With his big raise I doubt he flopped a higher flush, I think he flopped a set and is trying to protect what he believes is the best hand. I would definitely reraise this flop, up to around 150 and see what happens. You could emphasize pot-control also and just call his raise, then check-call the turn and river, but I think a better play is reraising the flop.

I agree with aislephive

Put the pressure on him and reraise it hard on the flop. Do you think he's the type of player to limp AXs after only one other limper? I doubt it. Try and end the hand here. If the board pairs slow down and aim for a cheap showdown. I'm guessing set.. Its going to come down to reads but I think you're good here because most hands that are ahead of you would have raised preflop.

If he has a set, then I would definitely want to reraise, but he doesn't always have a set. He's probably just as likely to be holding a flush or straight in this situation, and against any of these hands, I'd prefer to just call. I think all possibilities have to be factored in when you want to execute the play that has the best average result.

His limping in preflop likely indicates a small pair unless he had been limping in a lot where his hand range is much wider. Axh is possible, so is a hand like T9h or something similar, but I really don't think the nut flush would reraise on this flop, at least not such a big raise. If you call and another heart comes you could be in trouble and you definitely won't know where you're at, and if the board pairs you could be drawing dead and not know it. I would be looking to get a lot of money into this pot while I'm ahead.

I'm curious to hear the results though.

Originally Posted by aislephive

His limping in preflop likely indicates a small pair unless he had been limping in a lot where his hand range is much wider. Axh is possible, so is a hand like T9h or something similar, but I really don't think the nut flush would reraise on this flop, at least not such a big raise. If you call and another heart comes you could be in trouble and you definitely won't know where you're at, and if the board pairs you could be drawing dead and not know it. I would be looking to get a lot of money into this pot while I'm ahead.

I'm curious to hear the results though.

So, you're suggesting playing this hand super fast just to avoid decisions? I don't think the risk of losing a huge stack to a better flush is worth the benefit of making decisions easier, and if I were to play this pot for my whole stack, I would almost always be beaten, given the size of my stack. Basically, I think reraising is trying to get more action than my hand warrants. Plus, if my opponent merely calls my reraise, now how do I proceed? I'm out of position, should I bet big against a supposed set and potentially lose a gigantic pot when I'm behind? Already the pot has swelled to the point where I start suspecting I'm beat.

And, since this is just a random $400 NL Party player, his preflop limping range is huge.

If you really wanted to keep the pot small you can just call the raise and check-call on fourth and fifth street. But how many cards in the deck are going to hurt you, and how will you proceed when one of these cards hit? If a heart comes, do you check/fold? If the turn is a blank are you going to call another big bet?

Now that I think about it, check-calling isn't a bad line, but if he's drawing to a boat you're letting him do it for cheap and if he has a set, two pair, or a straight, then you won't get any more money from him unless you're beat.

reraise it. you have a really strong hand and its going to take a whole lot more action to make me consider folding. your hand is also vulnerable because a lot of cards kill the action. make it a big pot now while you're most likely ahead and don't let him draw for cheap. his raise wasn't all that big. so you let him make the hard decision. playing fast is good.

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

reraise it. you have a really strong hand and its going to take a whole lot more action to make me consider folding. your hand is also vulnerable because a lot of cards kill the action. make it a big pot now while you're most likely ahead and don't let him draw for cheap. his raise wasn't all that big. so you let him make the hard decision. playing fast is good.

I honestly think that reraising is a terrible play with stacks this big. He cannot concievably think any of the hands I'm beating are good if I 3-bet, but if I call, there's a chance he will overplay these hands. With this board, I often only get action when I'm beat (except perhaps from a set trying to fill up) by reraising, and there's a very real possibility that I'm drawing dead. If I call, I simultaneously hedge against being beat, and encourage him to overplay his hand when he's behind. Reraising has the benefit of charging him to fill up if he has a set, but hardly makes sense for any other holding, as I'm telling him to either slow down or fold when he's drawing dead. Actually, reraising and just calling are probably almost identical in terms of profitability when he has a set, since he'll probably make a substantial bet on the turn when I check to him if I just call his flop raise. The only difference is I have no fold equity, which is not a huge deal since I have the best hand anyways.

Regarding the idea that I may be faced with a difficult decision, if the board pairs or another heart hits, I don't have a difficult decision at all, it's usually any easy fold if the hand becomes too expensive.

As for the result of the hand, I called, and check-called $100 bets on the turn and river, and he turned over a K high flush. Think about how out of control the hand would have gotten had I reraised on the flop with 175 BB stacks. That's part of what I was trying to avoid.

This is why I'm not a huge fan of playing low-mid suited connectors (even though I do). If you hit the flush, you either get no action or you get too much action and are scared to "cash in" fearing a higher flush. I always hope to hit the straight rather than the flush. Maybe I'm too weak, but it seems the only time I get action on these I'm beat by a higher flush - especially in unraised multiway pots.

We can basically put villians on any two average+ hands. For ease of calculation, lets say they have perfectly random hands - we can adjust later.

There are 8 hearts left - 4 which really matter to you (JQKA). 47 cards.
Odds one oppenent having you torpedoed (higher flush) = 4/47*7/46 * 2= 2.6%
Odds of either: ~5% (19:1)


Odds of one opp having higher flush draw (~7 outs) ( = 4/47 * 2) = 17%
Odds of either: 31%.

Odds of a set (10 outs) ~ 9/47*2/46 = 0.8% - maybe double this since pairs are mostly limping and never folding.

Odds of a pocket (non set) ~ 5% - double to 10% (although you would think TT-AA raises) (basically drawing dead)

Odds of a board pair/two pair = 1 - 36/47*37/46 = 35% call it 20% since they are all low cards, and possibly folded pre-flopl

Bottom line: flush draw is about 7 times more likely than flopped flush, 10 times more likely than a set, and 1.5 times more likely than a pocket pair, and slightly less likely than a single pair matching the board. Floppped straight is about 3%, call it = flopped flush.

Now, one button flat called the flop, and BB raised it. That would indicate they have SOMETHING. High heart, straight, set, pair. I don't see AK no hearts continuing on this board.

So I make this as:
Flopped flush:Set:Higher flush draw:Pair/2 pair:straight
(roughly)
1.5:1:10:25:1.5
or
3:2:20:50:3
or
Hands that beat you: 4% (you have runner-runner sf outs for split+)
Hands that have outs (set/fd): 28% - you win here 62-75% of the time
Hand you crush (all others): 68%

So, you are ahead 96% of the time vs 1 opponent, but only 92% vs. both, and worst case (in which you are still ahead) 1 has AXh and the other has a set, given them 17 outs between them, twice. Odds of that are about 1/8 (12.5%)

After all that analyis... still not sure what to do. 1/3 of the deck is scare cards... that would seem to indicate a re-raise of some sort is in order. Also, your flop cold-call is going to look MIGHTY suspect.

I think I min/rerraise. A set will push over. A fast played flush (raiser has one) will push over, a slow-played flush (caller) will flat call again. The hard part will be distinguishing beween a non-nut flush that beats yours and a good draw/set. But most likely you are head and villains have outs, so you should kill their odds.

dsaxton, I think you are being very results oriented this hand. You can always stick in a reraise and give him credit for a higher flush if he pushes, but a lot of the time you are ahead here and won't make much on the hand by check-calling and you give him a free shot to hit a boat or a cheap exit if another heart hits. The fact that you both are big stacks changes the dynamics a bit, but I think that with 100xbb stacks here I go broke.

Originally Posted by aislephive

dsaxton, I think you are being very results oriented this hand. You can always stick in a reraise and give him credit for a higher flush if he pushes, but a lot of the time you are ahead here and won't make much on the hand by check-calling and you give him a free shot to hit a boat or a cheap exit if another heart hits. The fact that you both are big stacks changes the dynamics a bit, but I think that with 100xbb stacks here I go broke.

Um, I gave an explicit argument as to why I thought calling was the right play which made absolutely no reference to the result of the hand. I posted the results, and how they were interesting in light of my thinking, only as an anecdote and because someone had requested them.

If I reraise, and then he just calls, how do I know he has a set and isn't slow-playing a big flush? Do I then throw out a huge turn bet when I'm unsure as to whether or not I'm slightly ahead or drawing dead? If he does indeed have a set, he will charge himself to draw on the turn anyways if I call the flop. I don't have to worry about losing value in this sense. I already said this in another post.

I thought it was an interesting example of how aggressive betting and raising is not always the correct course of action, and that sometimes passive play can be optimal.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Originally Posted by aislephive

dsaxton, I think you are being very results oriented this hand. You can always stick in a reraise and give him credit for a higher flush if he pushes, but a lot of the time you are ahead here and won't make much on the hand by check-calling and you give him a free shot to hit a boat or a cheap exit if another heart hits. The fact that you both are big stacks changes the dynamics a bit, but I think that with 100xbb stacks here I go broke.

Um, I gave an explicit argument as to why I thought calling was the right play which made absolutely no reference to the result of the hand. I posted the results, and how they were interesting in light of my thinking, only as an anecdote and because someone had requested them.

If I reraise, and then he just calls, how do I know he has a set and isn't slow-playing a big flush? Do I then throw out a huge turn bet when I'm unsure as to whether or not I'm slightly ahead or drawing dead? If he does indeed have a set, he will charge himself to draw on the turn anyways if I call the flop. I don't have to worry about losing value in this sense. I already said this in another post.

I thought it was an interesting example of how aggressive betting and raising is not always the correct course of action, and that sometimes passive play can be optimal.

How often, on average, do you expect to make long term by just calling this flop instead of reraising? Let's say you just call here and another heart comes. If he has a set, two pair, or a straight, he slows down considerably and checks behind on the turn. And it will be very hard for you now to confidently play your ten high flush when any broadway heart beats you. Now if you reraise the flop it's very likely that a flopped flush would move in here, unless it was the nut flush and which case they might just call and trap, but it's unlikely a K or Q high flush flat calls there when another heart kills their hand or their action, and with you showing so much strength and a somewhat vulnerable hand it would make little sense to slowplay. How would a set play against your reraise? If he's stupid then he'll push all in, figuring his set is good. Most likely he just calls and folds to a turn bet if he doesn't improve. Two pair probably folds to your reraise, so does a straight.

I think it's safe to say that if he pushes over your reraise on the flop that he has a higher flush and you can muck. But long term hands you aren't making much money from hands you have beat by playing it so passively.

unless you hold the supreme ultimate nuts every hand you can say "well he's either ahead or behind so why make it easy for him to decide?" every time. poker is about cashing in on those mistakes people make and putting in raises with the most likely best hand is how you do that. sometimes you are behind, but you don't want to minimize every winning hand you have just because you think the opponent knows how to play perfect poker. if you think you could have folded to the reraise then why not do that instead of calling down? probably costs the same and on top of that you don't have to worry about the 4-flush hitting or the board pairing. people will raise your flop bets with all sorts of shit so I wouldn't slow down my 2card flush every time someone does that unless you have a read.

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

unless you hold the supreme ultimate nuts every hand you can say "well he's either ahead or behind so why make it easy for him to decide?" every time. poker is about cashing in on those mistakes people make and putting in raises with the most likely best hand is how you do that. sometimes you are behind, but you don't want to minimize every winning hand you have just because you think the opponent knows how to play perfect poker. if you think you could have folded to the reraise then why not do that instead of calling down? probably costs the same and on top of that you don't have to worry about the 4-flush hitting or the board pairing. people will raise your flop bets with all sorts of shit so I wouldn't slow down my 2card flush every time someone does that unless you have a read.

I never suggested you wait for the absolute nuts to raise.

In this situation, assume he isn't an idiot and will fold a smaller flush or straight if reraised. Assume he'll reraise, or sometimes call as a trap with a higher flush, and will call with a set. Then, a reraise has three likely outcomes: he folds when he was drawing dead, he occasionally reraises when he has a higher flush, and he calls when he has either a higher flush or a set. If he folds, he was drawing dead anyways, and I denied myself the opportunity to win anymore money, if he reraises, I guess that's good because I now know I'm beat, but if he calls, then what do I do? He will call me either when I'm slightly ahead or drawing dead, but I have no way of knowing which is the case. I'm reraising in a spot where I don't even know what to do when I get called. What, then, is the value in this play?

I don't think he always folds a worse hand on the flop. A lower flush not only is pretty uncommon but pretty hard to lay down on a 3-flush board. Also, I think only a pretty weak (as in conservative, not weak as in bad) player lays down a flopped straight here as well.

You are ahead 90% of the time here, and likely hands (high f/d, set) have significant outs against you. That's why you raise - for value and to kill drawing odds, not to get information.

If you re-raise and get called then there are a bunch of scare cards (4th hearts/board pairs) that mandate you check/calling or even folding to heavy action from both opps. If the turn is a brick... you have a choice to make based on reads. You are out of position, and have shown extreme strength (re-raising flop) on a scary board. You can lead out, perhaps getting folds you don't want, or raises (which are going to scare you), but it's consistant. Or you can check - you might give a free card here, but since you have to shut down on a scary river, that's not that bad. You might entice a small bet from a better hand, or a bluff.

It's not an easy hand to play - for sure - and I think very read dependent. I'm not saying calling the flop raise and check/calling to the river is bad, and in fact worked out OK for you - but I am pretty confident that re-raising here isn't "always bad" like you stated.

Originally Posted by zenbitz

I don't think he always folds a worse hand on the flop. A lower flush not only is pretty uncommon but pretty hard to lay down on a 3-flush board. Also, I think only a pretty weak (as in conservative, not weak as in bad) player lays down a flopped straight here as well.

You are ahead 90% of the time here, and likely hands (high f/d, set) have significant outs against you. That's why you raise - for value and to kill drawing odds, not to get information.

If you re-raise and get called then there are a bunch of scare cards (4th hearts/board pairs) that mandate you check/calling or even folding to heavy action from both opps. If the turn is a brick... you have a choice to make based on reads. You are out of position, and have shown extreme strength (re-raising flop) on a scary board. You can lead out, perhaps getting folds you don't want, or raises (which are going to scare you), but it's consistant. Or you can check - you might give a free card here, but since you have to shut down on a scary river, that's not that bad. You might entice a small bet from a better hand, or a bluff.

It's not an easy hand to play - for sure - and I think very read dependent. I'm not saying calling the flop raise and check/calling to the river is bad, and in fact worked out OK for you - but I am pretty confident that re-raising here isn't "always bad" like you stated.

If I reraise the flop, and he calls, and if his two likeliest holdings are a higher flush or a set (it takes a true donkey to refuse to fold a straight here, and even if he doesn't often fold a small flush, with this board, there aren't many plausible starting hand combinations that would even make for a smaller flush, so it's unlikely he has one to begin with, let alone his willingness to fold it), and these two possibilities are about equally likely, then my equity is at best very thin on the turn, and so it makes very little sense to bet aggressively. The idea being that the combined chances of my drawing dead and his having outs to beat me probably make me the underdog. So, if he calls a reraise, I have to proceed even more cautiously than on the flop. Again, I think a passive approach makes sense in this scenario.