flush vs reg

Villain is tsif knits, a pretty good regular who 24 tables 5/10 and 3/6. We are playing hu on 2 tables just to start good 6max games.
His preflop stats are 24/21 over good sample.

He has been playing very tight oop and not 3 betting very much at all. I've been opening 100% buttons. He's been leading in between sparatically and often and will think that I am not cbetting very wide especially on a board like this. This is the second time I've raised his lead the last time i bet the turn and he folded. He hasn't been playing super agro postflop since he's 24 tabling.

Should I have jammed turn if not as played wtf do I do?

No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (2 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($802.50)
Hero (Button) ($641)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, 7
Hero bets $15, SB calls $12

Flop: ($36) 4, 8, 6 (2 players)
SB bets $18, Hero raises $66, SB calls $48

Turn: ($168) J (2 players)
SB bets $102, Hero calls $102

River: ($372) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $336 (he has like 60ish left), Hero?

That's a pretty scary river... If you truly believe he flopped a set or 2 pair with the 8, then you have to fold. But then there's the possibility that he flopped a strait and your still ahead. By the way: nice post-flop raise to conceal your hand.

id shove allin for his other $60 since i figure a call misses the extra value.

he may discount your flushes given how you didnt make a move on flop or turn. 8 seems to be one of the few scare cards left in the deck and your range is still super wide and contains aton of whiffed draws.

K, well basically only worse hands that do this for value he can have are 109 or 45 hearts his pf calling range and the fact you have the 7 hearts plus the jack hearts is already out there see to that. I feel the river doesn't change all that much, I would expect him to 3 bet the flop with sets/ 2 pair due to how wet it is if he fps his set with the intention of checkjamming a blank turn gg to him, j8 is possible but it's a very small part of his range to matter. I think the hands he can have are fairly polarised between made hands turning themselves into bluffs on a scary turn and river and the ace/ king high flush. It feels really exploitable/ dirty to fold the top of our range and I never do in the moment but thinking about this more I think this is probably a sigh fold though it's extremely close. I also don't like raising the turn.



Also golf guy, you do not post well, leave the advice to people more experienced than yourself.

I've played with villain in 6max only and never HU, though a fair bit 6max. In my experience, vs me at least, he's 3betting strong FD's here (Axhh and Kxhh) and I can't imagine him leading two pair or a set on this board and not 3betting most of the time.

That being said, if somehow i got the feeling he had a set after he lead the turn, I would definitely raise the turn, but if I thought he was tryin to rep the flush/bluffy range then I'd flat turn and river.

Pretty much I'd only ever fold this river if i thought he had a set on the flop, and if I thought he had a set on the flop I'd raise the turn.. yada yada... I'm never flatting this turn and then folding river.

Certainly everyone has some bluffing range in this spot too... especially after the donking on the flush card..... too much so to think about folding ever I think.

at first i said you cant fold.

Then i read who you were playing and i think its a fold.

I just think he would play vs me differently than he would vs you since our styles are quite different. I don't know how much that would change this hand but I'm sure it has an impact.

edit{and by you i mean griffey}

Originally Posted by Massimo

at first i said you cant fold.

Then i read who you were playing and i think its a fold.

I don't really get this at all... or meeloche's read on villain either. I have 4.5k hands on him, with an AF of 6.61... which is insanely high over that kind of sample I'd say.

He's not the type to play passively.. he's not the type to c/c.. or call down.. he's the type that leads.. and donks more than most and this makes his ranges wider. I don't know.....

tsif is fairly nitty postflop but I suppose it is possible he is bluffing. I think he always has a higher flush or possibly J8s if he is vbetting. btw, raising the turn here vs any reg with these stacks would be a gigantic mistake.