Folded second nuts

The read I have on this guy is that he is pretty much a nut peddler with only 2%PFR. He called instead of raised some of my river bets with very strong hands. I just can't see him making this river 3-bet push with a lower flush than mine. Thoughts?

Game # 401283099 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 2/4 - Table "Igea"

Players(max 6):
Cocco_Bill (EUR 1,479.78 in seat 1)
AUDITT (EUR 498.38 in seat 2)
wman1 (EUR 610.40 in seat 4)
Hebbos (EUR 0.00 in seat 5)
mucahid (EUR 139.13 in seat 6)

Dealer: Cocco_Bill
Small Blind: AUDITT (2.00)
Big Blind: wman1 (4.00)

Cocco_Bill was dealt: :Jh: - :Qh:

Cocco_Bill Raise (12.00)
AUDITT Call (10.00)
wman1 Fold

Flop - - :Qs:

AUDITT Check
Cocco_Bill Bet (18.00)
AUDITT Call (18.00)

Turn - - :Qs: -

AUDITT Check
Cocco_Bill Check

River - - :Qs: - - :Kh:

AUDITT Bet (46.00)
Cocco_Bill Raise (130.00)
AUDITT All-In (422.38)
Cocco_Bill Fold
AUDITT Payback (338.38)

AUDITT didn't show hand

AUDITT wins: EUR 323.25
Rake: EUR 0.75

Game ended 2006-08-12 23:30:13 GMT+01:00

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

I just can't see him making this river 3-bet push with a lower flush than mine. Thoughts?

If that's your read, and you're often right, vnh.

I am never folding here.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

I am never folding here.

I don't understand why. The next best flush is the Thxh since I hold the Jh, he also called a raise pre flop. I played this hand like I hit a flush and given the type of player he is, he will be almost always calling the river raise and not pushing a lower flush/set.

good hand w/ your read

Meh, I guess if you are super confident in your read then okay. How many hands do you have on him? And pfr% isn't that applicable in this situation. What is his AF?

Omfg, this fold made me throw up in my mouth a little bit. Wow, I'm speechless.

Originally Posted by bdawg56kg

Meh, I guess if you are super confident in your read then okay. How many hands do you have on him? And pfr% isn't that applicable in this situation. What is his AF?

I have 2800 hands on him. I don't use a HUD when I play on that network, I just type in their name in PT when having tough decisions. Wow, I just noticed that his total aggression factor is a miniscule 0.92 and 0.32(including pre flop). looks like my gameplay reads were spot on.

Originally Posted by aislephive

Omfg, this fold made me throw up in my mouth a little bit. Wow, I'm speechless.

your welcome

I agree with the fold. From time to time things add up like this. What you want in this spot is the villain making a crying call with the lower flush.

nope


btw, do nut peddlers call raises with A-rag suited?

Wouldn't even a nut peddler play KK/QQ identically?

Originally Posted by Renton

nope


btw, do nut peddlers call raises with A-rag suited?

nope what?

he has the strange stats of 36%VP$IP and 2% PFR so yes he will likely see a lot of flops with hands like Axs.

Originally Posted by Renton

Wouldn't even a nut peddler play KK/QQ identically?

only if he is colourblind

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by Renton

Wouldn't even a nut peddler play KK/QQ identically?

only if he is colourblind

I think that the fact that you under-repped your hand by betting the flop puts more hands than the nut flush in your villains range. Even a nit is going to try to get all in with KK/QQ or the various str8s this board makes. EDIT: or flushes Txs obv.

Its just impossible for me to fold a this hand on this board. The fact that he's 32% vpip leads me to believe that he felts more than the A high flush here.

Just one problem... You say he's a nut camper, and very tight - yet you're giving him credit for the nut flush? That would mean that he is NOT a very tight player, because if he has the nut flush then that means he called a preflop raise with with AT or less from the small blind... which contradicts your read/his stats. Not to mention the flop call, which is uncharacteristic of a tight player, who won't call a pot sized bet with only a flush draw.

Methinks he got Kings Up or a set on the river... and didn't put you on a semibluff/hearts draw. I'm never laying this down, even with villain's numbers. In fact, the fact that he plays so passively makes it more possible that he wouldn't raise such a hand.

Originally Posted by natdang

Just one problem... You say he's a nut camper, and very tight - yet you're giving him credit for the nut flush? That would mean that he is NOT a very tight player, because if he has the nut flush then that means he called a preflop raise with with AT or less from the small blind... which contradicts your read/his stats. Not to mention the flop call, which is uncharacteristic of a tight player, who won't call a pot sized bet with only a flush draw.

Methinks he got Kings Up or a set on the river... and didn't put you on a semibluff/hearts draw. I'm never laying this down, even with villain's numbers. In fact, the fact that he plays so passively makes it more possible that he wouldn't raise such a hand.

read my above post, apparently he is willing to see a lot of flops, he is not tight pre flop, only raises very few hands and plays them passively unless he has the goods

In this hand the nit checks down trip fours when there is a flush on the board, this was a hand I remembered when making that decision.

Game # 401253460 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 2/4 - Table "Igea"

Players(max 6):
Cocco_Bill (EUR 1,532.83 in seat 1)
AUDITT (EUR 321.88 in seat 2)
lile (EUR 171.90 in seat 3)
wman1 (EUR 436.70 in seat 4)
Hebbos (EUR 171.60 in seat 5)
hakanhl (EUR 418.85 in seat 6)

Dealer: hakanhl
Small Blind: Cocco_Bill (2.00)
Big Blind: AUDITT (4.00)

Cocco_Bill was dealt: 7d - Qc

lile Fold
wman1 Fold
Hebbos Fold
hakanhl Call (4.00)
Cocco_Bill Call (2.00)
AUDITT Check

Flop 7s - 4c - 5s

Cocco_Bill Bet (8.00)
AUDITT Call (8.00)
hakanhl Call (8.00)

Turn 7s - 4c - 5s - 9d

Cocco_Bill Check
AUDITT Check
hakanhl Check

River 7s - 4c - 5s - 9d - 4s

Cocco_Bill Check
AUDITT Check
hakanhl Check

Cocco_Bill shows: 7d - Qc (two pairs, sevens and fours)
AUDITT shows: 4d - 8s (three of a kind, fours)

hakanhl didn't show hand

AUDITT wins: EUR 34.20 (with three of a kind, fours)
Rake: EUR 1.20

Game ended 2006-08-12 23:03:36 GMT+01:00

He looks like a fish to me, given the calls he made in your other example hand.
And Renton was spot on, you under-repped your hand, he has no reason to believe you hit the flush, and given the way you played the hand, I think KK and QQ def get in here on the river.

Nut peddlers dont get 90% of their stack in on the river when KK QQ hits a set on a card which completes a flush. This guy does not play horrible, he can read the board!

i think you were ahead more often than the pot odds you were getting to stack

thats all I am saying

Let me explain myself to not come off as ignorant.

1.) It is three handed, not full ring. The chances of flush over flush are extremely unlikely, like SUPER unlikely. And if there is a flush over flush, you have the best of it a large portion of the time.

2.)We have the SECOND nut flush. We are beat by one hand and one hand only, and it's easily plausible to think he could do this with a lower flush or even KQ / set.

3.) If he is calling with Axh where x is ten or below, he is also calling with suited connectors and suited 1-3 gappers as well. In fact I never call raises from the blinds almost ever with medium suited aces, especially from a button raise. I would be far more likely to make that call with T9h than A7h, and I think this player is in the same boat.

4.) The pot is laying you 2-1. I don't think any player is so predictable and weak-tight that they would never have worse than the second nut flush here more than 33% of the time. I'm sorry, I just don't buy it.

5.) Poker is a game where you often don't know the best move because you don't have enough information available. Your Hud stats really play little part in deciding if your hand is good. You have to know for a FACT that villain would never play a smaller flush this way (and by smaller flush I obviously mean ANY flush that isn't the nuts). If you have several hands where he just calls the river with the second or third nuts when it's obvious his hand is the best then maybe you might consider folding. But this is an extreme read, one you probably will never ever have because such players only exist in theory.

6. You're making this hand way more complicated than it is. The game is three handed, you have (practically) the nuts, and you have a lot of chips committed, just put your chips in and call.

Exactly. Why play middle suited connectors at all if you're not going to run with it when you make the very hand you hope to make?

Also, this is less about what you think he has and more about what what he thinks you have. I would venture a guess that he thinks you have KQ.

you folded the second nut flush in a blind battle.

I follow your line of thought but this is incredibly weak imo even for this network.
Opp can beat a pair/two pair hand for sure, but whethere he can beat a queen high flush meh. Im calling here, otherwise i wouldnt have raised.

I have to agree with most that has been said...I'm never folding here.
Even if he is the kind of player you described, to me it really looks like he is holding KK here alot of times.

I don't see a nut peddler 3 betting a set. If your read is correct I think it's a great fold.

vnh

I deffinately don't think a nut peddler with a .92 aggression is going to 3-bet all in with the 4th nut flush

imo the difference between great players and ubersharks is a situation like this.

i m not just saying this to kiss bill's ass btw

given the read (villain tight post-flop w 36/2 stats), Ax of hearts seems to be the most likely holding... and it's not even close imo.

If there were meta-game issues (Hero pushing him around, him suffering a beat etc.) I think it's a call but if this hand is just another among lots of "ordinary" hands I think Hero saved a lot of chips on the river and is trailing more than 2/3 the time.

oh and btw ppl seem to be ruling out Ax sooted becuz it's a bad calling hand on the one hand and then justifying calling AI because of the shorthanded-ness of the situation.

1- I have never heard of a "thinking" player w 36/2 stats over 2.8k hands. He most likely plays his cards. EDIT : with obvious fear of scary board... (see above post w 444)

2- If the shorthandedness of the situation dictates that you adjust your play, surely it must be because you anticipate other players doing the same thing. In this case villain is prob not thinking 2 many levels deep, so I think the shorthandedness of the situation vs this villain should be disregarded.

3- Even if villain were perceptive and "adjusting" for the shorthanded play, wouldn't we expect him to adjust by calling w Ax s? This is def not the type of villain who would adjust SH by reraising an ace preflop. his prf is 2% ffs.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

oh and btw ppl seem to be ruling out Ax sooted becuz it's a bad calling hand on the one hand and then justifying calling AI because of the shorthanded-ness of the situation.

1- I have never heard of a "thinking" player w 36/2 stats over 2.8k hands. He most likely plays his cards. EDIT : with obvious fear of scary board... (see above post w 444)

2- If the shorthandedness of the situation dictates that you adjust your play, surely it must be because you anticipate other players doing the same thing. In this case villain is prob not thinking 2 many levels deep, so I think the shorthandedness of the situation vs this villain should be disregarded.

3- Even if villain were perceptive and "adjusting" for the shorthanded play, wouldn't we expect him to adjust by calling w Ax s? This is def not the type of villain who would adjust SH by reraising an ace preflop. his prf is 2% ffs.

What is your point? Nobody is saying Ax suited isn't in his range or a remote possibility. The fact is a smaller flush is much more likely and there's no reason for villain to think his T9h is beat.

OP has no read that this guy would just smooth call with a smaller flush. The hand he showed of villain was him playing trips in an unraised pot with a crappy kicker with flushes and straights galore cautiously.

I repeat, anybody who thinks this is anything resembling a fold is retarded.

I think you're retarded for not considering fold.

Originally Posted by bigred

I think you're retarded for not considering fold.

I think that wasn't a sentence.

But yes, I'm retarded for not considering folding the second nut flush three handed when the board isn't paired getting like over 3-1.

Good one.

Seriously, even tuff_fish makes this call.

Originally Posted by aislephive

Originally Posted by bigred

I think you're retarded for not considering fold.

I think that wasn't a sentence.

But yes, I'm retarded for not considering folding the second nut flush three handed when the board isn't paired getting like over 3-1.

Good one.

Seriously, even tuff_fish makes this call.

I see a bunch of generalities concerning general +EV moves but nothing about opponent play/reads. Kind of the whole point of this article IMO. Good one.

Originally Posted by bigred

Originally Posted by aislephive

Originally Posted by bigred

I think you're retarded for not considering fold.

I think that wasn't a sentence.

But yes, I'm retarded for not considering folding the second nut flush three handed when the board isn't paired getting like over 3-1.

Good one.

Seriously, even tuff_fish makes this call.

I see a bunch of generalities concerning general +EV moves but nothing about opponent play/reads. Kind of the whole point of this article IMO. Good one.

Umm, yeah. Villain barely raises preflop, at does that tell us about this hand? Nothing considering he cold called preflop. OP as I stated before showed one hand he previously saw villain play where he checked the river with trips on a very scary board with a lousy kicker. He still should have bet for value, but it's not like his hand was huge. If he had checked behind with a boat, then maybe OP is on to something.

There are pretty much no opponents I have ever faced that are nitty enough to get me to lay down if I were in this spot.

Originally Posted by aislephive

Originally Posted by bigred

I think you're retarded for not considering fold.

I think that wasn't a sentence.

But yes, I'm retarded for not considering folding the second nut flush three handed when the board isn't paired getting like over 3-1.

Good one.

Seriously, even tuff_fish makes this call.

I am getting 2-1 not 3-1.

I seriously don't think that you are addressing the core of this problem. Will a nit(yes I have played enough with him to get a good feel for how he plays) 3-bet all in with a ten high flush. I feel that the answer to this is no, so I acted on my read like I often do, sometimes its a big call with a marginal hand and sometimes its a big fold like here. All you have done in this thread is state the obvious and really haven't added anything of value.

I think it is so much more likely that this is a bluff, rather than a set/ underflush. and its 5 times more likely to be the nuts than a bluff

Originally Posted by theDEEPdish

I deffinately don't think a nut peddler with a .92 aggression is going to 3-bet all in with the 4th nut flush

Somebody with a 36% VPIP and a .92 AF really isn't nearly as passive as you think.

Yes Bill, my math was off a little, you are correct. Still, you have to be right one time in three to break even. You seriously don't think your hand is good that often? That is insane to think that.

There isn't much to be added to this thread honestly. I'm all for making big laydowns, and if you had 56h here I think it would be a fine fold, but folding the second nut flush here is just abysmal, no offense. I mean, I've seen the nittiest players ever who are like 15/5 stack off with like TT on a 6 high flop. Poker isn't always so cut and dry where players will only stack off with the stone cold nuts. He could easily shove here with a smaller flush for value. He seems to be a weak tight player who plays his cards, so he isn't thinking "what hand is he going to call a tight player's three bet all in with that I beat?" His thought process is probably more along the lines of "ZOMG I HAVE A FLUSH I'M GOING TO MAKE SOME MONIEZ!"

If you lose, that's why you have a bankroll.

aislephive,

You seem to take it very personal when people disagree with you, do you always call others retarded when they hold a different opinion than you?

Anyhow I am currently running at 6.68ptBB/100 over 28k hands in the 400NL game. So I don't think I will be changing the way I think about the game based on your insults.

if there were thread of the week this one would be my choice FTW

when 2 very profitable players are 100% in disagreement usually the problem is an interesting one

this doesn't even seem like a hard lay down to me, if anything i think that i am not fully taking into account how much it being 3 handed changes things

plz let this thread not become a bitch-fest it held such promise...

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

aislephive,

You seem to take it very personal when people disagree with you, do you always call people retarded when they hold a different opinion than you?

Anyhow I am currently running at 6.68ptBB/100 over 28k hands in the 400NL game. So I don't think I will be changing the way I think about the game based on your insults.

Rofl, whatever. I'm taking nothing personal, show me any other time I've called somebody retarded (and it really wasn't meant as an insult FYI). I'm just telling it like it is, this is a very weak tight fold. If you don't care what I have to say then that's fine, because I didn't post in the thread to change your mind. Take my opinion for what it's worth (I'm a station).

And congrats on running well for 30k hands. High five.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

plz let this thread not become a bitch-fest it held such promise...

I don't see any promise discussing anything with someone who has already made up his mind and feels that everyone is an idiot for disagreeing with him.

Originally Posted by theDEEPdish

this doesn't even seem like a hard lay down to me, if anything i think that i am not fully taking into account how much it being 3 handed changes things

It changes things dramatically, to say the least.

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Originally Posted by Genitruc

plz let this thread not become a bitch-fest it held such promise...

I don't see any promise discussing anything with someone who has already made up his mind and feels that everyone is an idiot for disagreeing with him.

Ok, do me a favor.

Go to 2p2.

Post this hand.

A day later, dig through the 3-4 pages of experienced players saying exactly what I am.

Fuck it, I'll do it myself. I'll post the link later.

Here's a hand where he calls instead of raises a small river bet with the second nut flush...

Game # 407035920 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 2/4 - Table "Baeza"

Players(max 6):
mr1andonly (EUR 97.20 in seat 1)
enghel (EUR 56.85 in seat 2)
AUDITT (EUR 715.50 in seat 3)
kfo (EUR 361.89 in seat 4)
holdenff (EUR 408.10 in seat 5)
Cocco_Bill (EUR 414.25 in seat 6)

Dealer: kfo
Small Blind: holdenff (2.00)
Big Blind: Cocco_Bill (4.00)

Cocco_Bill was dealt: 7h - Jh

mr1andonly Fold
AUDITT Call (4.00)
kfo Fold
holdenff Call (2.00)
Cocco_Bill Check

Flop 3s - 4h - 5s

holdenff Check
Cocco_Bill Check
AUDITT Check

Turn 3s - 4h - 5s - 2s

holdenff Check
Cocco_Bill Check
AUDITT Bet (8.00)
holdenff Call (8.00)
Cocco_Bill Fold

River 3s - 4h - 5s - 2s - 4d

holdenff Bet (17.00)
AUDITT Call (17.00)

holdenff shows: Ac - 6s (a straight, six high)
AUDITT shows: 7s - Ks (a flush, king high)

AUDITT wins: EUR 60.00 (with a flush, king high)
Rake: EUR 0.60

Game ended 2006-08-19 13:39:32 GMT+01:00

link to aislephive thread

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...=0&page=0&vc=1

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Here's a hand where he calls instead of raises a small river bet with the second nut flush...

Game # 407035920 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 2/4 - Table "Baeza"

Players(max 6):
mr1andonly (EUR 97.20 in seat 1)
enghel (EUR 56.85 in seat 2)
AUDITT (EUR 715.50 in seat 3)
kfo (EUR 361.89 in seat 4)
holdenff (EUR 408.10 in seat 5)
Cocco_Bill (EUR 414.25 in seat 6)

Dealer: kfo
Small Blind: holdenff (2.00)
Big Blind: Cocco_Bill (4.00)

Cocco_Bill was dealt: 7h - Jh

mr1andonly Fold
AUDITT Call (4.00)
kfo Fold
holdenff Call (2.00)
Cocco_Bill Check

Flop 3s - 4h - 5s

holdenff Check
Cocco_Bill Check
AUDITT Check

Turn 3s - 4h - 5s - 2s

holdenff Check
Cocco_Bill Check
AUDITT Bet (8.00)
holdenff Call (8.00)
Cocco_Bill Fold

River 3s - 4h - 5s - 2s - 4d

holdenff Bet (17.00)
AUDITT Call (17.00)

holdenff shows: Ac - 6s (a straight, six high)
AUDITT shows: 7s - Ks (a flush, king high)

AUDITT wins: EUR 60.00 (with a flush, king high)
Rake: EUR 0.60

Game ended 2006-08-19 13:39:32 GMT+01:00

The hands you posted (including the ones on 2p2) were hands he definitely should have known his hand was good and he played it very weak, but I think this hand is different. On each of those occasions the board was paired when he had a flush, or when he had trips the board was very coordinated with straights and flushes. I'll just respectfully disagree with your fold, looking at the hands you posted on 2p2 he is much more tight passive postflop than I imagined. I can't imagine this player being a winner though FWIW.

Against ANYBODY else though, I think this is by far an easy easy call. I still think this is a call for sure, but it's a little closer than I thought.

He is a 7ptBB/100 loser over the hands I have on him. He is definitely a fish at this level. The best way to play against him is to take away all the small pots and play for stacks only with the nuts or near nuts.

Based on the hands you've posted here, I'm calling in this situation. I haven't looked at the hands on 2p2, why don't you repost them here?

I'm calling here. If he's not betting trip 2's then I can assume that he may have a very much weaker hand. Maybe a flopped two pair or set gone bad but I'm not folding in that spot. Also, given that you have two hearts, its very hard for me to believe that he also has two hearts in his hand. He may have rivered two pair and think his KQ is good here but I think this is almost an insta call.

Bill,

You say you have 2,800 hands on him. But he also has that many hands where he's watched YOUR play. Based on your style of play, and the layout of that hand, what do you think he put you on? Is he hoping you hit a set of Qs or Ks? Was he hoping you hit a smaller flush (which seems unlikely to me that he would put you on that since you were the PFR)?

BTW, I've made far too many calls against nut peddlers with 2nd nuts and such. If you followed your read, then good fold.


I'm new, so good to be here....

i think its a good fold, it seems this type of player has the nuts way too often here

my question: why are you not betting the turn here? i assume you have him on a range of sorts, so what is it?

all of the hands on 2p2 he played passively except for the TPTK. the flush that he just called with had a paired board, as well as not being the nut flush. he clearly has a flush here though. it seems that the only time he can bet the river is when the scare card that falls does not scare him, but rather makes his hand. this leads to the question of why you are raising here if his range is a flush, but you cant call if he reraises?

I would definitely bet the turn here.

Originally Posted by bigred

I think you're retarded for not considering fold.

wow im not even thiniking about how much i disagree with this.

Alright, I'm convinced. Good laydown.

Worst fold ever.

lol not...