folding the nuts?...

This is a hand that newbs and I were talking about. Its a real hand that happened to his friend, but since I don't think he'll post it, I'll post it.

I don't know any of the hand details before the turn, so pre-turn I just invented some possible action. The turn is the real part.

Effective stats are $3100

Villain is a solid tagg, who doesnt get out of line.

Hero is on CO
Villain is in BB

Hero is dealt :Ac:

2 folds
Hero raises to $120
1 fold
Villain calls $120

Flop: :Kh: :Qh: :Js: ($240)

Villain checks
Hero bets $180
Villain calls $180

Turn: :Tc: ($600)

Villain pushes $2800
Hero ??

I think this is interesting because Hero has the nuts here, but is faced with a huuuge overbet, in a spot where we are realistically expected to split a large amount of time, but calling $2800 only to win $300.

I think most people will say call. But there must be some push size by Villain where we should really be leaning towards fold (given that villain could be free-rolling on us).

its a clear fold but most people wouldnt think of that at first

Doesn't this depend heavily on the rake?
Because if the rake is like $5 i dont see why we should fold based on the percentage of the time opp has a FD?

If villain is good the vast majority of his range is Ahxh, which we're behind.

i remember the first time i even thought of this i saw strassa v XXtheJokerXX (awesome lag who used to wreck stars full ring 10/20 playing 40/20 ish). joker overbet pot by like 5x on turn, strassa said you got the ten with diamond redraw obviously and said he folded a ten and joker showed T6d.

it wasn't that awesome of a play now that i think abuot it but it was cool at the time.

1/10th of each players stacks are in. We know by this push we are getting freerolled no doubt, or the best case scenario we get our $300 back.

Lets assume effective stacks are the same for the next million trials. Each guys got $3000.

We fold, and lose $300.
We call, and lose once, we lose $3000.
So we need to call and not get flushed 10 times in a row - just to break even with the fold option. I think this is unlikely given the fact that the TAgg wouldnt push this without two hearts, because he knows inversley if he pushes and runs into a hand like AhJh, !h10h (which would fit the bill of our range), he would be in the same predicament.

So lets assume one time outta 10 hes got no flush draw, just an ace. 9 times out of 10, he has Ahxh.

We need to dodge 9 hearts, 9 times, just to break even.

So, we always fold this.

However; the reason we fold is because we are risking so much to only win back 1/10th of our stacks.

Assume that the pot on the turn was $1600.

Now we should be calling this push, since we are trying to win back our $800. The odds on the flush are 4.5 to 1 againts. Effective stacks are $3000 still. This means that $3000 / $800 = 3.75.

Since we lose less (remember, we will never gain from this situation. We cannot win here.) by calling, we should (obv?)

This is a sexy "bluff" by the villain if he doesn't have a heart re-draw and he's trying to push you off a chop too IMO.

The hand was taken from an aggressive $2000 NL HU match.

Hero in this hand is an online friend of mine, a decent winner but overall he isn't very strong IMO.

While I was scouting some good $600 NL games, I decided to check up on my friend and that is when the hand played out.

Villain I would say is a decent short handed & head's up player at $1000 & $2000 NL.

The discussion started when my friend instantly called the bet from villain to split $600 active pot, and despite me explaining that a good player here is going to have AhXh the vast majority. Especially since hero played the turn very transparent, and gifted a dream spot for villain.

Hero wouldn't admit that this a fold given the circumsances, and that folding the nuts would be deemed "stupidly retarded" as he kindly put.

So this is never a bluff?

can someone give me math on this? lets say he has a FD 50% of the time (is this reasonable?).

This is pretty interesting, I didn't think there was ever a scenario like this in holdem.

Is villain good? because if he's not this is an easy call cuz he doesnt have an FD 50% of the time.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Is villain good? because if he's not this is an easy call cuz he doesnt have an FD 50% of the time.

Villain I would say is a decent short handed & head's up player at $1000 & $2000 NL.

^^

opp has to have an FD about 50% of the time for this to be a fold so i call normally here, if the pot was smaller i'd probably differ in thought.

insta fold

maybe it's an omaha-thing, but Hero is getting a bad deal here.

Not offense Genitruc, but why do people feel like they can convey a sentence answer in a question being debated that requires more than a sentence to answer?
The only way we answer this question is if someone does the math. Jishu I thought did a pretty good job with it, however he assumed op always has a flush which IMO isnt the case, 50% i think is reasonable.
with 50% this is a call based on math so if anyone disagrees with this number please tell me.

why is 50 reasonable? just because its half way to 100 ?

The hand was taken from an aggressive $2000 NL HU match.

Im never folding this in a hu match.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

The hand was taken from an aggressive $2000 NL HU match.

Im never folding this in a hu match.

Eupho, read the post one more time. Think about it more, and review your statement.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

The hand was taken from an aggressive $2000 NL HU match.

Im never folding this in a hu match.

If villain had Ax he wouldnt push here. It doesnt make sense. He'd need to be 3rd or even 4th leveling you to have it make sense. By pushing he only allows you to make one mistake albeit a big one. But if he bets out or c/r's he allows you to make several smaller mistakes AS WELL as a big one.

If hero instead had KK, QQ, JJ, or any combination thereof he's obviously not calling. Villain loses TONS of value against these hands because often they would call a smaller bet incorrectly. (Maybe not the KQ's and JQ's and whatever other combinations are possible, but certainly the pocket pairs)

He certainly could show up with Ax but in the standard realm of hyperaggressive HU matches, I'm just not giving him credit for 3rd of 4th leveling me.

I'm interested, though... if the stakes were $100NL, would you fold? Effective stacks are $155. $30 in the pot, villain pushes $140..

Interestingly, I think there might be more validity to pushing if villain has Ax -- he's fine with you if you fold KK/QQ (because you still have 10 outs to draw out on him) whereas he WANTS to be called (and hence would seek more value than a push) if he had Ax because theres less chance of being drawn out on by KK/QQ (he's holding a good chunk of the outs) and hes DEFINITELY fine with you folding an Ace.

I agree euph. I don't see why we shouldn't be pushing here any time we have the ace of hearts (whether our other card is a heart or not). It's not like we're going to get a lot of value out of worse hands on this board, so might as well hope they have an ace and go for it all.

With the way he played the hand, I could possibly put him on these hands:
Ax of hearts (10 hands)
A of hearts, KQJT of another suit (11 hands)

That doesn't mean that all of these hands are equally likely though. Shoving with A K on the turn is a good play but not everyone will do it. I mean I just think he has hearts the majority of the time so it's a fold.

Originally Posted by gabe

why is 50 reasonable? just because its half way to 100 ?

Calling wins $300 if villain doesn't make a flush, and loses $2800 if he does. Thus for hero to break even by calling, villain has to make a flush less than 1 in 10 times. If villain has the FD he has a 1 in 5 chance of hitting, so he has a 1 in 10 chance of making the flush if he has the FD half the time.

Originally Posted by Massimo

can someone give me math on this?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

The only way we answer this question is if someone does the math.

First things first:

Pokerstove
Board: Kh Qh Js Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.773% 00.00% 39.77% 0 17.50 { Ac8c }
Hand 1: 60.227% 20.45% 39.77% 9 17.50 { Ah2h } (or Ah, whatever h)

Hero will lose (not split) 20.45% of the time assuming he's up against Axh.
On the turn there is $600 in pot and hero must call $2800.

1) villain always has flush redraw and is not bluffing
79.55% of the time hero splits: $600/2=$300
20.45% hero loses $2800

(0.7955*300)-(0.2045*2800)=-333.95
On average hero loses $334 by calling

2) villain has flush redraw 75% and is trying to push hero off of split 25%
25% villain has A but not flush draw so they split $600/2
75% villain has Axs ...
... 79.55% they split $600/2
... 20.45% hero loses $2800

(0.25*300)+(0.75*0.7955*300)-(0.75*0.2045*2800)=-175.46
On average hero loses $175 by calling.

3) villain has flush redraw 50% and is trying to push hero off of split 50%
50% villain has A but not flush draw so they split $600/2
50% villain has Axs ...
... 79.55% they split $600/2
... 20.45% hero loses $2800

(0.5*300)+(0.5*0.7955*300)-(0.5*0.2045*2800)=-16.97
On average hero loses $17 by calling. Even though it's tiny EV- this is still EV-. If villain never bluffs or makes some weird play with set or something, this is always EV-.

But if you could see him bluffing here (not having the ace) it's just too complicated ... what is his range ... how often % will he do it ...

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Is villain good? because if he's not this is an easy call cuz he doesnt have an FD 50% of the time.

I disagree with that. Good players will try and push you off chops more often than bad players.

Interesting discussion overall though.

hero's play is straightforward, if you think he has the redraw >40-50% (given that it's not inconcievable that he bluffs) of the time, you have to fold.

I think this hand is interesting from villian's perspective.
Should he be shoving AXh? AX? sets? air? Given that he thinks you might fold a chop here, should he value bet AXh? c/r?

Originally Posted by zenbitz

hero's play is straightforward, if you think he has the redraw >40-50% (given that it's not inconcievable that he bluffs) of the time, you have to fold.

I think this hand is interesting from villian's perspective.
Should he be shoving AXh? AX? sets? air? Given that he thinks you might fold a chop here, should he value bet AXh? c/r?

I think shoving with a set from villain's perspective could be an interesting play, if he thinks opponent is capable of a fold. At least with a set you have a redraw if called.

Given the size of the push to the pot size, it has to be effective waaaay too often to be profitable imo.

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Is villain good? because if he's not this is an easy call cuz he doesnt have an FD 50% of the time.

I disagree with that. Good players will try and push you off chops more often than bad players.

Interesting discussion overall though.

I think my writing confuses people, that's exactly what i was saying, I think it's reasonable for good players to have an FD 50% + of the time, but not bad players.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by SmackinYaUp

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Is villain good? because if he's not this is an easy call cuz he doesnt have an FD 50% of the time.

I disagree with that. Good players will try and push you off chops more often than bad players.

Interesting discussion overall though.

I think my writing confuses people, that's exactly what i was saying, I think it's reasonable for good players to have an FD 50% + of the time, but not bad players.

Sorry I am a little slow sometimes. I'm not sure what I think the %'s are, but what I meant was that I think good players will have the FD a lower percent of the time than bad players. I say this because I think even bad players will recognize a good chance to get it in vs another straight with a flush draw still in hand.

More often the good player will be able to think "well we are chopping but maybe I can scare him off with a flush draw out there plus I get the added benefit of not worrying about river play on a paired board."

I base this on nothing but my own thoughts.

Whats the math on size of pot vs FD if villain has the redraw every time?