Folding a set on the turn

Fold here? Against most players I would 4-bet push the flop, but UTG is 70-25 with flop aggression of 0.5 and turn aggression of 0.2 over 200 hands, so 88 and JJ start to figure in my thoughts. Oh, BB is awful and seems to think all draws are strong. Turn is one of the scariest cards possible. I don't think UTG realises though.

Prima Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed)

SB ($14.93)
BB ($5.23)
UTG ($9.05)
Hero ($10.21)

Preflop: Hero is Button with [3d], [3h].
UTG raises to $0.2, Hero calls $0.20, 1 fold, BB calls $0.10.

Flop: ($0.65) [8h], [Jc], [3c] (3 players)
BB bets $0.1, UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.7, BB calls $0.60, UTG raises to $1.3, Hero calls $0.60, BB calls $0.60.

Turn: ($4.55) [Tc] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $4.55, Hero folds, BB calls $3.83 (All-In).

River: ($12.93) [As] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $12.93

I've been waiting all day for a pot with action when I flop a set, then I log on here to see people tossing them away. It hurts so bad. Do not fold sets in micro-stakes.

Originally Posted by daven

Fold here? Against most players I would 4-bet push the flop, but UTG is 70-25 with flop aggression of 0.5 and turn aggression of 0.2 over 200 hands, so 88 and JJ start to figure in my thoughts. Oh, BB is awful and seems to think all draws are strong. Turn is one of the scariest cards possible. I don't think UTG realises though.

sounds like ur saying there are plenty of worse hands that would play that way...

and dont put much weight on AF numbers, instead analyze how they actually play their hands. is TPTK the nuts to them? etc.
also, .25 AF is pretty high when someone is playing so many hands. it's saying of the 70% of hands they play, they're playing them aggro 1/4 of the time on the flop. T5s doesn't hit 2 pair that often!

Originally Posted by Galapogos

I've been waiting all day for a pot with action when I flop a set, then I log on here to see people tossing them away. It hurts so bad. Do not fold sets in micro-stakes.

so call all-in when opp still to play has likely turned a flush?
I agree - do not fold sets ON THE FLOP in micro-stakes.

But later - what if the board was monotone on the turn, surely there are sometimes good spots to fold sets? Curious about your thoughts on this one

benny vn post

If you think he probably has 88/JJ on the flop, it's better to just fold right there. I don't think I ever layed down an underset, however, and certainly not to a 75/25's check/minraise. If he does have it it's just a cooler, shake it off and move on to the next hand.

Just calling the c/r allows the BB to make a correct call with his draw, and even if no-one actually has a draw there are sooo many turn cards that will scare either us or them into not putting more chips into the pot. This would be a terrible outcome after hitting our dream flop, so stick as much money you can into the pot asap.

I meant you should get it in on the flop. You might want to fold the turn against this guy as played though because now you really don't beat a lot of a passives range. I still don't see him playing a FD like this though with his stats so I'd probably still get it in.

[quote="benny999"]

Originally Posted by daven

also, .25 AF is pretty high when someone is playing so many hands. it's saying of the 70% of hands they play, they're playing them aggro 1/4 of the time on the flop. T5s doesn't hit 2 pair that often!

made me think. True, combining AF with VPIP makes for interesting reading... Thanks

hey, and thanks to all who posted on this one. At the time I was so proud of my laydown, it's very rare for me to drop a set, but looking back I was a little dubious about my play on the flop. Hence the post here. Sure, the result on this hand was good (UTG showed 88, idiot showed 9T - wtf?!?!?!?) but results orientated hand analysis is dangerous....

[quote="daven"]

Originally Posted by benny999

Originally Posted by daven

also, .25 AF is pretty high when someone is playing so many hands. it's saying of the 70% of hands they play, they're playing them aggro 1/4 of the time on the flop. T5s doesn't hit 2 pair that often!

made me think. True, combining AF with VPIP makes for interesting reading... Thanks

hey, and thanks to all who posted on this one. At the time I was so proud of my laydown, it's very rare for me to drop a set, but looking back I was a little dubious about my play on the flop. Hence the post here. Sure, the result on this hand was good (UTG showed 88, idiot showed 9T - wtf?!?!?!?) but results orientated hand analysis is dangerous....

man...realized later i was off on what i was saying a little, though the concept was there. AF says hes 1/4 as likely to bet/raise than to call, i was talking about agg. frequency. whatever though it still holds that AF isn't as big a deal when someoen's so loose, and actual reads are more important.

also, halvsame's right on, you need to decide on the flop what to do. i have made some big (potentially bad) laydowns based on reads, but thing is, if you post them on a forum, everyone is just gonna tell you it was crazy. so just go with ur reads...as long as it's more than a HUD stat.

When someone minraises you on the flop and you have a set, FOUR BET THEM. Don't let these idiots draw for cheap. Don't worry about being over-setted.