quick maths:

assumption 1: which is somewhat faulty, we assume he has a big hand everytime and we have exactly 0 fold equity. If he ever folds advantage us obviously.

Assumption 2: His range is 1 of the 3 combos of TT without the spade, 1 out of 3 of QQ without the spade, All 4 KJs combos (including the one we are drawing dead to), Js9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, KsQc. This is about .8% of card combos. The flush hands are somewhat arbitrary but we can't count all of them and I felt I was pretty generous in giving him some combos that have a bit of additional equity against us than bare 6 high flushes or whatever.

Assumption 3: We need about 41% equity against his calling range (everything) to break even on a shove. I'm not even going to attempt to quantify a call, too confusing.

Board: As Qs Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.015% 44.55% 01.47% 4410 145.50 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 53.985% 52.52% 01.47% 5199 145.50 { QcQd, TcTd, KJs, Js9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, KsQc }


arrrrrrrr-in!