Getting Value against fish Deep 3B 50NL

limp caller is a 50/12 fish who calls light on flops and turns and gives up on river who i doubled up thru
pfr is a bad agro reg

should my bet sizing have been bigger on flop + turn? do i continue on the river?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) -

CO ($62.70)
Button ($50)
SB ($76.70)
Hero (BB) ($102)
UTG ($54.30)
MP ($169.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, Button bets $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7, MP calls $6.50, Button calls $5

Flop: ($21.25) , , (3 players)
Hero bets $10, MP calls $10, 1 fold

Turn: ($41.25) (2 players)
Hero bets $25, MP calls $25

River: ($91.25) (2 players)
Hero has $60 left

Looks alright now c/f this river. He prolly open raises like 99-JJ most of the time so the majority of his range is better hands like Kx and AdXd then there's all the missed draws and weakass pairs like 88 and worse he's jus folding all the time. If he has this tendency to call 2 streets a lot but not 3 then obviously bet the turn harder.

If you have seen the fish make a habit of calling flops/turns, I would take advantage of his frequency and bet close to pot on both the flop and turn. I'm sure you already know, but this would have made the river an easier shove.

Although you said he calls down the flop/turn lightly, I can't see him continuing with any random Ax. The only Ax he probably has in his range by the river would be A2. Given this, I'd probably shove expecting him to call rather lightly with his pocket pairs (also see: Zeebo's theorem).

By the by, how does he respond to 3bet/squeezes?

If he folds a lot on rivers, doesn't mean there isn't value. He's getting to river with lots of pairs (33-88). If we bet $22, he still has a full house a lot, and he prob won't fold that easily.

With this smallish bet, can we fold to a shove? He almost always has an ace when he shoves and folding would make me sad.

He has more aces than jus A2 BooG, namely busto nfds. Idk I guess betting small cant be too bad and we kinda to have to fold to a shove since he has some combos of Ax and Kx, if he gives up on a lot of rivers he prolly isnt bluff shoving over a $20 bet too often, so defo not b/c and shoving jus folds out way too many of his shit pps imo.

Originally Posted by BooG690

By the by, how does he respond to 3bet/squeezes?

He has limped/called a 3bet before by me and gave up on a low flop. He likes to see a lot of flops no matter what the price.

The river I was thinking more of a jam or checking kind of situation but betting smallish makes a lot of sense.

River went Check check and he showed up with JJ.

Originally Posted by L_Clan_Sup3rMaN

River went Check check and he showed up with JJ.

Meh...I really hate when people do this. This is unnecessary and kind of kills any chance of further discussion.

Umm since we're analysing the best way to play against how villain plays his range and not just one hand, it doesn't have to kill discussion at all if people just keep sight of that. It is however, totally irrelevant to the analysis process which should be done using the info we have at the time.

i dont think he folds TT JJ if we shove, its 2/3 pot on the "best" bluffing card at 50nl

TT-JJ is 12 combos though, he prolly has like 6-7 combos of AdXd at least then, up to 9 combos of A2, then plenty of Kx. I don't see how we can possibly shove unless we think he's calling a river shove with a hell of a lot more than just something like 99-JJ which he may not even have all combos of due to preflop.

Originally Posted by Alexos

i dont think he folds TT JJ if we shove, its 2/3 pot on the "best" bluffing card at 50nl

I really don't think people are like "wow this is the best bluffing card" at 50nl.. but I don't know.

I'd imagine a fish is more likely to think "wow.. I don't beat anything at all now... folddd"

default shove. You take away from a lot of his Aq and Kq combos. The pots 90, you have 60 left, you usually have the best hand.

wtf shoving is terrible here, I can't understand why anyone wants to shove at all. Think about his continuing range to a shove, there's no way w have more than 50% equity vs it given how often he has A2, AdXd and Kx vs the low pps he actually calls with when we've seen him call 2 and fold rivers before. Am I going insane or is ftr?

Bah, I misread the action initially. Though it was vs BTN and not the MP fish.

His range is like A2s,KJs,KQ,AK,KTs, 22-JJ. Too lazy to count combos but given he loves folding rivers I don't like a shove anymore. Close between betting 12$ and c/f.

bet 20?

well, the classic blocking bet scenario is one where his range is say 14 combos of hands which beat us, and 20 combos which we beat, but we think like 14/20 combos fold to a large bet and he isnt likely to bluff us if we check (or worse, does so with the right frequency). but he will call say 30/34 combos to a 1/3 pot bet, fold 2 combos and jam 2 or something. so then we still have the best hand 55% of the time when called !

i think this spot is somewhat like that, im not even sure he jams an ace, since "what do i get value from ??" and we might have Kx.

or he might jam Ax, which is ok, because we are going to hold Ax ourselves extremely often in this spot, so a bluff looks near suicidal for him. so we dont need to worry about getting bluffed.

i think we can bet 1/6 to 1/2 pot and expect to be good a little over 50% when called

yea at first i was like - wanna bet, cose he won`t have Ax that often, but not very big
but than i was like - meh i don`t wanna bet so chfolding seems fine (fish might call 1/2p w Ax on the turn for sure). blockbetting like 1/3p is probably fine - assuming he ain`t gonna jam 66 as a bluff vs "weak" betsize i guess (but its pretty suicidal)

I vote for 1/5th pot.