Quote Originally Posted by griffey24
Checking here keeps our range a lot wider I think, and there's no reason we can't bet on all rivers if checked to again. Any hand that will bet into us on river after we check turn, will probably c/c this turn anyhow.
Herein lies the problem: 1. I think this particular guy is very unlikely to check the river if I check behind the turn, regardless of what he holds - his aggression is way too high to let a decent pot go that easily. 2. I think his range for river betting is therefore a good bit wider than his range for turn calling. And since I may have nine high on the river, I won't be able to look him up if and when he bets.

There is one big x factor though, which is that he probably bets a spade on the river close to 100% of the time. How big of a bet I'm not sure, but his tendency has been pot betting or even slight overbetting. If he folds most of his hands (which I assume are mostly garbage) to a turn bet, but would throw some money my way SPECIFICALLY when I make my hand on the river, does that mean I should consider checking behind..? I guess I'd have to start doing math to figure that out, and assign some guess-percentages to his possible actions. But as the hand was playing, my logic was "a bird in the hand..."