Hand of the month #3 : Trying to be tricky at 25/50

A potential "leak" of mine is that when I take shots in higher games, I seem to do stuff I usually wouldn't do....and I don't mean like play nitty scared money, usually it's the opposite. Maybe it's fancy play syndrome or just that i'm use to playing lots of tables so when i'm focusing on less tables or one in particular i change the way i play. Anyone else suffer from this?

Cue this hand. Villain is your standard tag reg, don't know too much about him but he's def not the fish at the table. Fish is in the BB so i think pre is standard to keep fish in hand. He likely knows i'm playing over my head a bit and thus I am less likely to bluff?

How often is he folding a hand like j10, 99, or a hand like 89-78? Can I ever get called by worse (AJ, AK)? Thought this might be a semi-interesting hand to discuss....two way betting etc.

Boss Media (IPN) No-Limit Hold'em, $50.00 BB (4 handed) - BossMedia Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($4800)
Button ($5787.87)
BB ($21123.19)
UTG ($5089.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 7
UTG bets $130, 1 fold, Hero calls $130, 1 fold

Flop: ($310) 3, 10, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $150, Hero calls $150

Turn: ($610) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $400, UTG calls $400

River: ($1410) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1150,

Total pot: $1410 | Rake: $3

I don't really like this line fwiw. I feel like from villains eyes your hand would look much stronger if you c/r the turn instead of leading. How good it would actually be if you had a strong hand I'm unsure of but I think he looks you up lighter than you want cause your line looks bizarre. Its one of those call and take a note spot.

Why in god's name are you leading the turn? He could very well not fold JJ/JT/whatever but he sure is not calling with anything worse. I'd take this line as a bluff occasionally but with good draws when I actually hit a good turn card for my range.

I think the turn donk lead in itself can def be called by worse (ie: draws), given there are lots of them out. I don't think you'll ever get called by a worse made hand obviously.

So the only real question is, if he's folding many better hands on the river. I actually think with our particular hand, there might be more value in c/c this river than trying to bluff out better...

I think his river range is 9Ts,JTs, Txcc, QJ,KQ,AQ,KK,AA for made hands.

Probably also gets there with 67cc, AJcc, AKcc, Axcc, KJcc, KJss, AJ,79ss,79dd.

I think he definitely calls with all QJ+, and sometimes calls river with his Tx so I don't think this is good as a bluff. I think if you check he checks back most Tx, some QJ, but prob bets KQ+ and then some of his bricked draws.

Is this a close river c/c or not even?

Someone put me in line if I'm losing my mind here..

I think he gets to river with 30 hand combos he value bets with (KQ+), and then ~ 28 combos he bricks off with (XYcc,AJ,KJ,79s) and would need to bluff, most likely to win

Board: 3c Th 8c Qs 2d
lead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48% 28 hand combos { 7d7h }
Hand 1: 52% 30 hand combos { QQ+, AcKc, AQs-AJs, Ac9c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, KJs+, 9c7c, 9d7d, 9s7s, 7c6c, AQo-AJo }


If he chooses to bluff more than half the time, this should be a river c/c (lose to 30 combos, beat 14 combos). I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that kind of bluffing frequency, given the line hero took and how ppl kind of get tilted/annoyed at donk leads bs... ?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Why in god's name are you leading the turn? He could very well not fold JJ/JT/whatever but he sure is not calling with anything worse. I'd take this line as a bluff occasionally but with good draws when I actually hit a good turn card for my range.

To mix it up I guess. I'm never going to c/call that turn and I feel like if he calls the turn I can take it down on a lot of rivers. That being said the river is a complete blank, but he realizes that and he knows i'm not a donk so when I continue on the river he can give me credit for hands like KQcc, Q10 and sets.

I'm probably levelling myself, but I think if i had a strong hand here, c/raising the turn is awful because it's so strong and he's folding out most worse hands whereas if I had a strong hand leading would be good no? Maybe that's why leading is so bad here with 77 but yeah that's my defense playing devil's advocate.