heads up line check

villain is pretty solid, plays good hands and makes intelligent decisions. will get pot committed on accident every once in a while and be forced to call bets with terrible holdings (ace high on 3 flush boards etc)

ive got him on a PP or big cards based on pf reraise
im obviously not folding to the pf reraise since its a minraise and im getting like 4-1 with connectors. flop smells somewhat like a c-bet but could be overpair as well. whats your line on the flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB (t4920)
Hero (t4080)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, J.
Hero raises to t600, BB raises to t1000, Hero calls t400.

Flop: (t2000) 8, 6, 9 (2 players)
BB bets t1200, [color=#CC3333]Hero ?

i push here.

3200 in pot, you have 3040 with some FE. you got OESD plus overcards which puts you ahead tho overcards probably not clean out if called). expect to be catching up if called.

You have 8 clean outs and 6 tainted outs, in case he has an overpair or hit a set or have you dominated for this card, so I would say you have the equivelent of 10-11 outs.
I dont see any scenario in which you are ahead.
Calling here would accomplish little, you want to see both the turn and river card, so it is a push/fold situation.

If you think he is capable of folding here, even 20-30% of the time I push

Originally Posted by TLR

If you think he is capable of folding here, even 20-30% of the time I push

please explain your math estimation, like calc.

ive decided to properly bring math in game as opposed to estimations which ive neglected up to this point.

pot is 3200.
Your current stack 3080
Assuming you push and we know 100% that he will call.
Your expectev value with 10 outs
0.4*(4080*2) = 3264

Assuming you push and he folds 25% of the time
0.25*(3200+3080) + 0.75(3264) = 4018.

Both are correct mathemically, but hte edge on the first one is very small

Originally Posted by TLR

pot is 3200.
Your current stack 3080
Assuming you push and we know 100% that he will call.
Your expectev value with 10 outs
0.4*(4080*2) = 3264

0.4 you have above is 10/47+10/46 is it? i calc that to be 21.27%+21.74%=43.01%then minus the times i hit both isnt it say 3% then.

Originally Posted by TLR

Assuming you push and he folds 25% of the time
0.25*(3200+3080) + 0.75(3264) = 4018.

Both are correct mathemically, but hte edge on the first one is very small

okay so 25% we win,75% its a showdown.
where is this edge you mentioned? dont we take account for having 0 when we lose and bring that into our calc.

0.4 refers to 40% to win when you have 10 outs, it is not 100% accurate but close enough.

25% we win, 75% its showdown
the 3264 already took into accout 40% winning and 60% losing

Originally Posted by TLR

0.4 refers to 40% to win when you have 10 outs, it is not 100% accurate but close enough.

25% we win, 75% its showdown
the 3264 already took into accout 40% winning and 60% losing

and we would know that its -EV if the 3264 would be lower than hero original stack isnt it. actually thats what you meant when edge is small on the first calc.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

Originally Posted by TLR

0.4 refers to 40% to win when you have 10 outs, it is not 100% accurate but close enough.

25% we win, 75% its showdown
the 3264 already took into accout 40% winning and 60% losing

and we would know that its -EV if the 3264 would be lower than hero original stack isnt it. actually thats what you meant when edge is small on the first calc.

yep, it is EV+ but very marginally so

sound man!! appreciate it.