Hit Sets Get Paid.

Exhibit A: Unknown opponent

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord ($200.80)
Button ($205.40)
SB ($30)
BB ($192.80)
UTG ($385.95)
MP ($233.75)

Preflop: Fnord is CO with 2, 2.
UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Fnord raises to $8, 3 folds, UTG calls $6.

Flop: ($19) J, 4, 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Fnord bets $12, UTG calls $12.

Turn: ($43) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Fnord bets $30, UTG calls $30.

River: ($103) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $2.95, Fnord raises to $75

Exhibit B: A sequence of hands against the same opponent

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord ($298.80)
UTG ($200)
MP ($186.80)
Button ($364.25)
SB ($218.75)

Preflop: Fnord is BB with 7, 8.
3 folds, SB raises to $6, Fnord calls $4.

Flop: ($12) 3, 5, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Fnord calls $6.

Turn: ($24) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $6, Fnord raises to $20, SB calls $14.

River: ($64) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $12, Fnord calls $12.

Final Pot: $88

His QQ is good.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord ($256.15)
UTG ($205)
MP ($87)
CO ($131.45)
Button ($331.35)
SB ($329)

Preflop: Fnord is BB with T, T.
2 folds, CO raises to $6, 1 fold, SB calls $5, Fnord calls $4.

Flop: ($18) T, 8, 2 (3 players)
SB bets $8, Fnord calls $8, CO folds.

Turn: ($34) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $4, Fnord raises to $30, SB folds.

Final Pot: $68

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord ($278.85)
SB ($216.70)
BB ($116.70)
UTG ($114.45)
MP ($293.35)
CO ($313)

Preflop: Fnord is Button with J, J.
2 folds, CO raises to $8, Fnord calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) A, J, 3 (2 players)
CO checks, Fnord bets $12, CO calls $12.

Turn: ($43) 5 (2 players)
CO bets $10, Fnord raises to $40, CO calls $30.

River: ($123) 5 (2 players)
CO bets $40, Fnord raises to $120

Here is my read:

Flop: His check either signals extreme strength or a desire just to check/fold this board. I make a small gut-check bet I might make with a wide range and he insta-calls. I'm thinking something like AKish since he's too insecure to bet his own fucking hands.

Turn: This guy loves gay little blockers and I'm thinking the turn didn't help him and now he's kicking back into his "I like my hand but I'm not sure where I'm at" gear. I put in a raise for value, although a re-raise would suck. Very few people would play a flush draw like this, although I haven't seen enough of his play to rule it out.

River: Now that's interesting. That card couldn't have helped him, yet $40 is a pretty strong bet from this weakling. Hmmmm.... AK inspired stupidity? I just don't think he's got a heroic call in him this deep so I go for the value raise and commit to calling the rest off if we get there.

Hmmm... no replies....

My concern here is that my lines didn't get all of the money in the pot and that has me thinking and wondering if I'm missing too much value.

Hand 1: Fine

Hand 2: Interesting. You get a raise preflop from SB. What puzzles me is that you call the flop bet with what looks like a thin implied odds call knowing he's value betting a hand you can take him deep with if you hit. Then you raise the turn and get a potfuck river. Why is this? Did you decide he wasn't so strong after all on the turn?

Hand 3: Fine. Turn sucked bad

Hand 4: This is totally relationship based. He seems ready to show down IMO, but only you would know. I would stick it all in on the river and let him cry. I think you get a call sometimes. It's a good choice because even if you don't get called often enough, you own his stack anyway unless he leaves. Slap the wolverine and get it now or later. By the way this looks suspiciously like AA. That would blow.

Hand 1: I raise to 10 preflop, yea its a nitpick. As played, 14-16 on the flop (yea another nitpick). Turn and river seem standard. River I may even push, because I think he's folding to 75 almost as much as a push, but you win twice as much with the push when he calls.

Hand 2: I probably raise turn to like 26. Meh river.

Hand 3: I think this one is an easy raise on the flop, because he saw you get out of line in hand 2. I suppose a case can be made for calling just cuz it increases the chance of getting CO's moneys. Turn is another case of him folding to a 40 raise just as much as the 30 raise, so why not raise to 40?

Hand 4: I was ok with the smooth call pf with TT and it was close then, but I think you need to threebet J's. Postflop seems ok.



Basically, the reason you aren't getting paid is because you aren't bloating the pot enough preflop and on the flop when you play pocket pairs and hit sets, IMO.

The raise to 10 with deuces as opposed to 8 seems nitpicky, but in reality that extra 2 dollars preflop becomes an extra 20-30 dollars later in the hand.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Hand 2: Interesting. You get a raise preflop from SB. What puzzles me is that you call the flop bet with what looks like a thin implied odds call knowing he's value betting a hand you can take him deep with if you hit. Then you raise the turn and get a potfuck river. Why is this? Did you decide he wasn't so strong after all on the turn?

Pre-flop: GAMB00L, sometimes I make loose calls in spots like this.
Flop: Looked like a continuation bet, made a light call here with the intention of taking the pot back away if he showed weakness or to send a message that he's going to have to fire 2nd and 3rd barrels against me.
Turn: He showed weakness, I popped him to see how much he liked his hand and to build a bigger pot if I gin the river.
River: Crying call. I'm good here once in a blue moon and wanted to see what he was playing like that.

Renton, thanks for the feedback.

Originally Posted by Renton

Hand 3: I think this one is an easy raise on the flop, because he saw you get out of line in hand 2.

Yeah, I tanked a bit on this one. With two Tens in the hole, I just didn't think the lead had much strength and figured my best chance for value was to let the CO assert "but I have an over-pair."

Originally Posted by Renton

Hand 4: I was ok with the smooth call pf with TT and it was close then, but I think you need to threebet J's. Postflop seems ok.

The problem with 3-betting a guy like this is that he's tipping his hands post-flop in mediumish pots and going nuclear is going to give me less information and less room to exploit that information. Also he seems like the sort to play by-the-book pre-flop poker so there is a little concern about blowing him off hands I'd like to play against.

Is your opponent isn't willing to go to the mat with middling hands, I don't think there's much you can do to get him to engage other than slowroll and hope that he catches a piece.

He definitely played his QQ hand like weaksauce. Knowing he's that cautious, I'd consider checking behind on the flop on your JJ hand if it was less coordinated, but it isn't so we don't.

On the TT hand, your turn raise is definitely of the put up or shut up variety, so he's either playing or he ain't. A weaker raise might keep him in but I don't think it would make all that much difference.

These hands are fine Fnord. This guy likes to lose the least when he's behind but I think he's the one missing the most value in the long run, not you.

for #1 -- I try to get at least 1/3 of effective stacks in by the turn to have a river ai psb.

I understand betting less to keep in draws and Jx more often, but on the chance I hit a run of cards or good spots for 2barrels, then I'd rather establish a line that gets all in on the river. I'm not sure what has more value though as far as betting more vs keeping these hands in more...

One thing I see that I don't like is the <2/3 pot bet on the flop in hands 1 and 4. It's my belief that most players don't differentiate very well between 2/3 and 3/4, so I prefer to bet 3/4 more often with big hands since a call or a fold doesn't hinge on the extra $3. This extra $3 on the flop grows exponentially by the river. I also continuation bet 3/4 pot fairly often, so it doesn't leak information.

Originally Posted by koolmoe

One thing I see that I don't like is the <2/3 pot bet on the flop in hands 1 and 4. It's my belief that most players don't differentiate very well between 2/3 and 3/4, so I prefer to bet 3/4 more often with big hands since a call or a fold doesn't hinge on the extra $3. This extra $3 on the flop grows exponentially by the river. I also continuation bet 3/4 pot fairly often, so it doesn't leak information.

Pot size shown in the interface is $18 (HH converter doesn't include rake), my standard bet into that size of pot is $12. Bumping that up a bit is being seriously considered.

i used to c-bet 2/3 standard (whether i hit or not) Now im always betting 3/4. It probably has identical EV for bluffing, but I defend my hand and get paid better when I hit.

The difference between 2/3 and 3/4 is actually quite profound when it comes to the river, and its the difference between a 3/4 pot all in with the nuts and an uncallable all in overbet.

Theoretical questions (with possible answers - just guesses really)

if we are always betting 3/4 pot, how do you keep the pot small when we have a modest hand (TPMK)? Checking occasionally flop/turn?

don't we get screwed when bluffing by firing 2 bigger bullets when we are getting called down? Or does the bigger flop bet get enough fewer calls that we fire fewer 2nd bullets?

Ya, I was thinking that too. Pot control gets thrown out the window. I've had long stretches of damn good hands being one upped, and I saved a boatload of cash by controlling the pot.

Originally Posted by zenbitz

don't we get screwed when bluffing by firing 2 bigger bullets when we are getting called down? Or does the bigger flop bet get enough fewer calls that we fire fewer 2nd bullets?

a. We screw ourselves by firing the second bullet when it has a limited chance of success.
b. bingo.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

Ya, I was thinking that too. Pot control gets thrown out the window. I've had long stretches of damn good hands being one upped, and I saved a boatload of cash by controlling the pot.

I think pot control is more a matter of check/call vs. bet/call a raise.

I've been playing around with my bet sizing since moving to 200nl and have found that 3/4 gets more respect than 2/3, and 1/2 gets no respect at all.

Results:
Both opponents called.

In the first hand he had 88. His mistrust of pure aggression ran him into a hand. Intesting player as I sat in the game longer. Kind tight pre-flop, but loose post-flop.

In the last hand, the weakling had AJ. Lee Jones killed my action on the turn as I would otherwise expect him to get his money in there. Then again, who knows. Just goes to show you how hard it is to put anyone on an exact hand.

Originally Posted by zenbitz

Theoretical questions (with possible answers - just guesses really)

if we are always betting 3/4 pot, how do you keep the pot small when we have a modest hand (TPMK)? Checking occasionally flop/turn?

I don't always bet 3/4. I just do it more often with big hands and less often with modest hands, but I bet both pot sizes with each. I also check/call with modest hands against aggressive players upon occasion. It seems like a lot of players aren't perceptive enough to pick up on these kinds of trends unless you always do the same thing.

Originally Posted by zenbitz

don't we get screwed when bluffing by firing 2 bigger bullets when we are getting called down? Or does the bigger flop bet get enough fewer calls that we fire fewer 2nd bullets?

Yeah, I think you will have to choose your spots a little more judiciously. My premise is that my opponents don't differentiate between 1/2 to 3/4 pot bets very well, and so they will call the bigger bet with nearly the same frequency as the smaller bet. Obviously, this is not true against all players, but it is a big leak of the players that I tend to target.