Some chat between me and Irisheyes about the subject ..

IrisheyesFTR (1:21:10 AM): ya
IrisheyesFTR (1:22:47 AM): http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...tmIrisheyesFTR (1:22:52 AM): talk to me
alaSkandevil81 (1:29:41 AM): im positiv
ealaSkandevil81 (1:29:47 AM): that you have a spade and a dimaond
IrisheyesFTR (1:23:14 AM): hmm....
IrisheyesFTR (1:23:18 AM): I dunno
alaSkandevil81 (1:30:23 AM): well you cant flop a flush
alaSkandevil81 (1:30:24 AM): fold
IrisheyesFTR (1:23:48 AM): lol
alaSkandevil81 (1:30:59 AM): nah if you have a small pair playing for set value here that sucks
IrisheyesFTR (1:24:43 AM): why? it's 13x
alaSkandevil81 (1:31:33 AM): 13x not good enough
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:14 AM): also if i was BB
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:17 AM): your hand is face up
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:22 AM): and since you're a tag
IrisheyesFTR (1:25:44 AM): what is my hand?
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:28 AM): a pair
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:33 AM): small
IrisheyesFTR (1:25:53 AM): YAY obv
IrisheyesFTR (1:25:58 AM): ok
alaSkandevil81 (1:32:56 AM): id probably never stack off here with an overpair against you
alaSkandevil81 (1:33:02 AM): unless we have history
IrisheyesFTR (1:26:27 AM): now you're getting somewhere
alaSkandevil81 (1:33:36 AM): not only that, even against a range of AA/KK you dont have as great of equity as you think
IrisheyesFTR (1:27:06 AM): what do you mean?
alaSkandevil81 (1:33:59 AM): ok when you flop a set against AA/KK
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:02 AM): you figure
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:07 AM): hey im a 90% fav
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:09 AM): right
IrisheyesFTR (1:27:34 AM): k
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:21 AM): the problem is
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:26 AM): take 22 vs AA
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:29 AM): pokerstove
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:31 AM): or something
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:39 AM): flop is 2c xx
IrisheyesFTR (1:28:03 AM): 80%
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:48 AM): your equity is 81
alaSkandevil81 (1:34:49 AM): yes
alaSkandevil81 (1:35:21 AM): so that means when you flop a set against AA/KK assuming you never fold fearing a higher set (very reasonable) you lose 1/5 the time
alaSkandevil81 (1:35:37 AM): instead of the 1/10 times you thought you would
alaSkandevil81 (1:35:49 AM): because you'll get set over setted and stuff
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:01 AM): thats when his range is just AA/KK
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:14 AM): although we're not folding 22 on AK2 flops
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:21 AM): for the sake of the argument
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:29 AM): because nobody folds a set
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:32 AM): ina RR pot
alaSkandevil81 (1:36:46 AM): now when you add AK/AQ
alaSkandevil81 (1:37:00 AM): and stuff like any pp
alaSkandevil81 (1:37:21 AM): but overall still a tight range lets say TT+/AK
alaSkandevil81 (1:37:36 AM): now when you flop a set you dont always get paid off
alaSkandevil81 (1:38:13 AM): because TT isnt stacking off usually on almost any board, and obviously one overcard is likely
alaSkandevil81 (1:38:38 AM): now AK/AQ is almost never getting stacked when we hit a set
alaSkandevil81 (1:38:43 AM): because they have to hit too
alaSkandevil81 (1:38:51 AM): and that doesnt happen often
IrisheyesFTR (1:32:16 AM): wait wait stop for a sec
IrisheyesFTR (1:32:28 AM): I get all that you're saying
alaSkandevil81 (1:39:19 AM): k
IrisheyesFTR (1:33:41 AM): consider this
IrisheyesFTR (1:34:00 AM): BB is a solid TAG
IrisheyesFTR (1:34:08 AM): my hand is face up
IrisheyesFTR (1:34:27 AM): Here is my real point
IrisheyesFTR (1:34:51 AM): I can c/r any flop and push the turn, and he folds all of his hands
alaSkandevil81 (1:41:43 AM): here is the problem with that
IrisheyesFTR (1:35:05 AM): as a bluff
alaSkandevil81 (1:42:20 AM): one, being that even though i said id fold any overpair there if you c/r assuming no history, a lot of players would still felt an overpair there
IrisheyesFTR (1:36:16 AM): ok
alaSkandevil81 (1:43:04 AM): two, you have almost no outs when called, and assuming he has a tight range, he'll call way too often for it to be a profitable bluff
IrisheyesFTR (1:38:01 AM): hmmm...