How Bad Did I Play This??? (tough hand)

effective stacks 200bb

Im in the bb with AKdd (600nl)

TCblade a strong tag regular who I have no strong reads on opens for 24 in the hijack. I raise to 78 in the bb he calls.

flop A Js xs I bet 96 he raises to 316 I call.

Turn x offsuit (7 i think) i check he bets 240 I fold.

Comments on all streets appreciated as it seems like I played this terribly. I'll post some of my thoughts on the hand later. Only relevant history is that I'm running terribly on 3 tables with TC and he has pushed me out of multiple pots when I have had nothing.

On the hand... Maybe I'm reading way too much into it but I really like it. You can't fold this flop, but when he bets so little on the turn it's pretty obvious he is either
1. begging you to push
2. feeling like you're only calling smallish bets.

The one thing I feel he's not trying to get you to do is fold. Unless he's like nth to the nth leaveling you.

There's way more analysis I think, especially because he thinks your bluffy and probably threebetting really light. The one thing I'm afraid of is if he semibluffed here with Ax, and is now thin value betting KK/QQ, or even an ace with a "worse" kicker (or so he thinks).

I'm not sure i call the flop raise.

I check the flop all day unless I'm ready to go to war on this board.

I don't think you butchered it all that badly but you prob lost a small amount of ev by folding the turn. If you call turn and lead river he may look you up very light (it would help if you had more history with villain).

I'd fold the flop raise without good reads- ie like genitruc wrote, wanting to play a big pot.
I also like checking the flop more.

I think folding to a flop raise here is bad. This is a good flop to bluff on for opp and I think we're laying down to too many worse hands by folding.
That being said I like a flop check.

i agree it's pretty weak, but still think putting in 60bb on the flop with no idea what to do afterward is worse than just folding to the raise.
it's not like u can just hope he calls down with a worse hand like a loose passive fish.

If you're not willing to call his turn bet then you should be folding to the flop raise.

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

If you're not willing to call his turn bet then you should be folding to the flop raise.

This logic is overused imo (stuff like "why fold river if you call turn" etc).

Ppl are less likely to make suicidal bluffs when it looks obvious you're priced in, especially good villains like the one OP is describing.

Once things get to the "nth" level I agree outthinking yourself is bad but I think ppl generally (and often incorrectly) approach hands as if each street needs to have a logical progression ("if I wasn't beat on the flop I MUST still be good here, even though villain knows I have to call"...).

Checking the flop is way better then betting.

Seems like everyone is implying that your range for betting this flop should be something like 80% bluffs, 20% monsters (AJ/JJ/AA), 0% good one-pair hands. Maybe that's true against a guy you don't have much history with but it seems counter-intuitive.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Seems like everyone is implying that your range for betting this flop should be something like 80% bluffs, 20% monsters (AJ/JJ/AA), 0% good one-pair hands. Maybe that's true against a guy you don't have much history with but it seems counter-intuitive.

I think it's a pretty good rule of thumb vs aggro hand-reading players who will have position on you for later streets.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

Ppl are less likely to make suicidal bluffs when it looks obvious you're priced in, especially good villains like the one OP is describing.

That gets less true as you play in more aggressive games vs better players. This hand would be fairly simple if we were only 100 BB deep...