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how bad is this river c/r bluff?

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  1. #1

    Default how bad is this river c/r bluff?

    I think it might be bad since even though the river bet left a lot behind, he must have a decent hand to bet with. i just figured it prob wasn't a flush, and really didn't want to call and lose to AK or something.
    or do you think it actually a decent play to try to get the same hand or 2pr to fold?

    reads--
    i don't know a lot about villain, except he hasn't done anything weird, is a 25/15 multitabler, and insta called the turn (that's why i didn't think flush).
    i've been mostly nitty/tag.

    Ultimate Bet
    No Limit Holdem Ring game
    Blinds: $2./$4.
    5 players
    Converter

    Stack sizes:
    Hero: $1022.90
    CO: $180.40
    Button: $453.15
    SB: $261
    BB: $413.70

    Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with A Q
    Hero raises to $14, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

    Flop: 4 A J ($34, 2 players)
    Hero checks, Button bets $26, Hero calls.

    Turn: 8 ($86, 2 players)
    Hero bets $50, Button calls.

    River: 2 ($186, 2 players)
    Hero checks, Button bets $95, Hero raises all-in $932.9
    $268 to call
  2. #2
    interesting...
  3. #3
    gabe's Avatar
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    if you dont know alot about villian, wouldnt you want to play the hand in a really straightforward way (like by betting the flop?)
  4. #4
    i thought to check the flop since i was starting to pfr and c-bet more lately so concerned a little of getting bluff raised or something, and it seems to induce bluffs often.
    and i like it if ppl know i check good hands after pfr sometimes (3 ppl were regulars including the villain).
    also i experiment more if i've been running good lately...

    anyway do you mean you wouldn't do this without knowing more of villain?
  5. #5
    I'm not disagreeing that he might not have a flush here, but I guess I don't get the point.

    What worse hands are gonna call your push?

    (none.. but thats fine since you're not pushing here for value I wouldn't think)

    but what BETTER hands are folding your push? Are you trying to get a possible two pair to fold here? Cause if not, your hand has showdown value. If you don't think he has the flush, why not just check-call?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  6. #6
    love it
    when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
  7. #7
    Don't you have enough showdown value to do this.
    I like it more with air.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by minSim
    Don't you have enough showdown value to do this.
    I like it more with air.
    Nope, he pretty much never has the best hand here.
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    Quote Originally Posted by minSim
    Don't you have enough showdown value to do this.
    I like it more with air.
    Nope, he pretty much never has the best hand here.
    Based on what fact? The fact that villain is somewhat value betting this river on a scary board, instead of checking through?

    reads on villain would help narrow his range for betting this river, thats for sure!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  10. #10
    gabe's Avatar
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    the guy could have KdQ or KdT, but what else is pure bluff
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by gabe
    if you dont know alot about villian, wouldnt you want to play the hand in a really straightforward way (like by betting the flop?)
    But this also implies that villain doesn't know a lot about him, which makes this a flush a ton in opps opinion.
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  12. #12
    gabe's Avatar
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    nah, dont assume villian is as smart as us
  13. #13
    thanks for the thoughts so far. c/r on the river as a bluff is a relatively new strategy for me so i appreciate any ideas on important aspects/times to do it.

    so if we assume villain has at least AQ here, but prob not a flush, and is capable of making reads/laydowns, does anybody else think it's a good idea to try and get him to fold?

    or lets say you are the villain, does my line look too weird for a flush?
  14. #14
    I would think that a c/r river bluff would work better if you set it up with a c/r for value on the river.... question is, is he making "hero" calls with 2p/sets.

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